"Pick your guy and let it fly." - Marino
- May 5, 2004
- Reaction score
- The Left Coast
It’s not often I learn something new on finheaven. But, I really like your take on early talent using the star rating system and how it translates to the NFL. I’m an analytic minded guy who also uses film to evaluate talent. Your logic makes a ton of sense to me as it seems to combine the two into one approach.I'll continue to mention it and emphasize it. I actually don't do it nearly as much as warranted. If you don't understand the value of early excellence, I feel sorry for you but I am not surprised. The vast majority of fans and analysts are remarkably ignorant along those lines. That's why the same type mocks preseason ratings while never bothering to recognize their incredible accuracy, given the burden of identifying so far in advance. That fan mindset translates to placing absurd overboard emphasis on most recent games and results instead of the totality. I concede that nothing I say here will ever change that. It is the reason we had ping pong opinions on Ryan Tannehill depending on the week, when actually nothing of note ever changed.
5 star players are more likely to be drafted, more likely to make All Pro, more likely to make the Pro Bowl, and so forth. There have been countless studies. The star ratings are still in their infancy, which is why this is not well known. In 20 years or so it will seem silly that anyone ever argued against this. The star ratings have also become more accurate as more services are doing it and more video is available. That's why it is so difficult to unearth a hidden gem. The Canes were finding lesser rated players in the '80s and '90s who would be near the top of the recruiting rankings today.
The raw numbers is what throws people off, and leads to some silly assertions. The number of 3 star to 4 star to 5 star is hardly linear. It dwindles exponentially. That's why no kidding many 3 star players make it. There are so many of them. As always my spotlight is on more likely than not. Do the right thing. Steal percentages in your favor. Prioritizing the higher rated guys enables that type of hidden value, while ignoring them sticks a team in the ignoramus category, destined to overdraft Crowd players and therefore remain a Crowd franchise.
Here are just a couple of links, the first one depicting star rating toward being drafted, and the second one toward making the Pro Bowl. I grabbed the first things atop the Google list given the search terms I used, instead of scrambling for ones that exaggerated in my favor. As I mentioned, this type of examination is still in its infancy but the findings have all been along the same lines. They will continue to move in that supporting direction as more data is available. I appreciate the CommonManFootball guy on YouTube because he is not a conventional wisdom type, paralyzed by recency. He is the first I've seen who smartly incorporates high school results, particularly among quarterbacks, and also age of the prospect.