Market watch: Week 1 NFL lines | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Market watch: Week 1 NFL lines

Fin Fan in Cali

Fin Fan in Cali

Fins Up!
Super Donator
Club Member
Joined
Sep 8, 2004
Messages
59,736
Reaction score
93,559
Age
61
Location
Sunshine state
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Market-watch-Week-1-NFL-lines.html

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans
When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Opening line: Texans -6 (Cantor)
Current line: Texans -7 (across the board)
Analysis: A one-point adjustment in Week 1 may not seem like a big deal, but take note that this game has moved from -6 to the key number of -7. That’s significant. The Texans bring last year’s second-ranked defense to the table along with the healthy return of quarterback Matt Schaub and Pro Bowl wide receiver Andre Johnson, not to mention one of the league’s deadliest rushing attacks in Arian Foster and Ben Tate. On the other side of the field sits a new-look Dolphins team with uncertainty at the quarterback position led by first year head coach Joe Philbin. At -6, Houston was my favorite play for Week 1. At -7, I’m still on board.

I know it's very early. Have at it.
 
Based on last year, ya its a fair line since its in Houston. But this isn't last year, its THIS year!
 
that texans d is legit...i mean legit...i could see this one getting ugly...7 points is a lot and maybe philbin can surprise em with a few things on o but i'm not seeing garrard or matt moore or tannehill for that matter going into that building opening day and producing a w...andre johnson likely healthy again...the zone running game with arian foster a healthy matt schaub...if i was betting i'd take the texans and the 7...but that full td favorite can bite you
 
yeah demeco ryans was a major leader loss. Offensive line will be worse too. We just have to unleash the unknown on them with the quick tempo

look for charles clay to have a big game.
 
Seven is not really a key number. It's more of a psychological barrier than likely to come into play. An unusually low number of 7 (or thereabouts) point favorites actually win by that number, certainly far below key numbers like 3 or 4.

I'm stealing somebody else's research to make that point. In the late '80s and through the '90s I often appeared on Las Vegas sports talk radio alongside a San Diego-based handicapper named Dave Zenor. One of his ongoing themes was how overrated 7 was, and that buying a half point on or off 7 was ridiculous. He got some publicity off that angle and eventually The Gold Sheet published his research. That article led to an ongoing role at The Gold Sheet for Dave.

He deserved it. Nice guy. Almost didn't seem to fit the Las Vegas sportsbook scene. My friend always joked that Dave Zenor was too normal to be hunting angles and numbers with the rest of us scoundrels.

Come to think of it, every time I open a betting related thread I have some type of related story from long ago. I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing. I certainly hadn't thought of Dave Zenor and his 7 angle in quite a while. Fortunately the OP didn't conjure up memories of Artie Bodendorfer and his betting group. That would take far too long.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
oooooohhhh Texans -1 and the Fins +13 in a sweet little teaser :eat:

I expect Miami to have a good year, but I don't know about right out of the the gates IN Houston.

The past 3-4 years I always do better in the first 6 weeks....
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom