Martin & Incognito: Correlation Doesn't Equal Causation | Why We Need to Start Over | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Martin & Incognito: Correlation Doesn't Equal Causation | Why We Need to Start Over

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Shouright

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Intuitively, causation seems to require not just a correlation, but a counterfactual dependence. Suppose that a student performed poorly on a test and guesses that the cause was his not studying. To prove this, one thinks of the counterfactual – the same student writing the same test under the same circumstances but having studied the night before.

If one could rewind history, and change only one small thing (making the student study for the exam), then causation could be observed (by comparing version 1 to version 2). Because one cannot rewind history and replay events after making small controlled changes, causation can only be inferred, never exactly known. This is referred to as the Fundamental Problem of Causal Inference – it is impossible to directly observe causal effects.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cum_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

Having paid close attention to the "Martin & Incognito" situation as it has evolved over time, most notably with the recent outpouring of sentiment from those closest to the situation (the Dolphins' players), my perception is that the people on the "outside" (the fans and the media) were quick to take the following two events:

  1. Jonathan Martin's leaving the team, and
  2. Richie Incognito's voicemail and text messages,
...and perceive that one caused the other, when in reality the cause of Jonathan Martin's leaving the team is likely unknown to anyone other than Jonathan Martin and his close associates. Hell, even Jonathan Martin may be mistaken about the reason he left the team. He may not be fully aware of his own unconscious motives, and he may be incorrectly attributing the cause of his behavior to Richie Incognito, when in reality the cause of his behavior is something different altogether.

As in the quote I copied and pasted above, it's easy for us and the media to do what we call "counterfactual thinking" and construe that, had Incognito not treated Martin the way he did, Martin would not have left the team.

We can't be altogether certain of that, however. It's entirely possible that Jonathan Martin's reasons for leaving the team had nothing at all to do with Richie Incognito, and Martin is using Incognito's voicemail and text messages to "try the Miami Dolphins in the court of public opinion" and get them to pay the rest of his salary for the year, while he recuperates from whatever it was that drove him away from the team.

IMO Ben Volin wrote an excellent article in support of that idea here: http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2...ple-appears/ifzcI7AjapFF4rPbi3aF2J/story.html

At any rate, I think some serious reassessment of this situation is in order for everyone involved, including the fans and the media, who are likely making Richie Incognito's life a living hell right now, when that may in fact not be warranted in the least.

We need to step back to square one here and realize, IMO, that the cause of Jonathan Martin's leaving the team is to this day still unknown, and wait for the facts of the case to come out in due time.
 
Well said and needed to be stated.
 
The story stating that Jon Martin texted Richie not too long after this all broke and said, "Just know that I don't blame you" only helps to support your theory.
 
I can sum all that up in four words. Wuss. Quitter. Rat. Fink.
 
KevInMotion said:
The story stating that Jon Martin texted Richie not too long after this all broke and said, "Just know that I don't blame you" only helps to support your theory.
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True, but I can't really own this theory as "mine." I think it's something we've all been flirting with here lately, even from the beginning perhaps, for some.

I think the safest place right now is to think, like I said, that the cause of Martin's behavior is unknown, rather than jumping to the conclusion as many did initially that Incognito is the cause.
 
I think it will take the media a while to come to this conclusion, but eventually I think they might.
 
Get Incognito back to the practice field ASAP. We got an important game on Monday. After all, this is still a football team not a soap opera cast.
 
Spiff said:
Get Incognito back to the practice field ASAP. We got an important game on Monday. After all, this is still a football team not a soap opera cast.
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I think if he hadn't used the 'N' word, that would probably be the case right now, and the NFL never would've been made involved.

The 'N' word, even taken out of context, makes things like this a whole new ballgame, because it allows Martin to try the team in the court of public opinion, and then the team has no choice but to suspend the offending individual while a neutral party (the NFL) investigates.

Otherwise, the team stands to suffer very negative PR, and of course the team is driven by ticket and merchandise sales, so PR is of utmost importance.
 
The only fact that I know is Jon Martin is the largest ***** I have ever known and nothing coming to light is changing my opinion of him, only strengthening it.
 
:up: thread (hell must have frozen over!)



xfnvvt-1.jpg

anyone who wants to use this is free to do so
 
Vaark, you need to make a "Team fire Ireland anyways" logo
 
I'd be willing to bet any number of players, of all race and ethnicity, have video, text messages, voice mails, emails and other digital traces that would be quite explosive if brought to light. Riley Cooper seems to have made his mea culpa and been allowed to move-on. The key difference seems to be the common belief that Riley's words were anger fueled with intention to hurt and it seems to be the perception that Incognito's VM was typical of his outrageous personality and desire for shock....there is some evidence that Martin shared the message and laughed about it with his teammates. The unanimous support by his peers and the apparent close friendship that Martin and Incognito shared publicly also makes this a head-scratcher. I really hope Demaurice Smith can get these two together and work this out without any legal problems that blow-up the Phins over what seems to be a whole lot of nothing. My buddies and I might talk a whole lot of trash over beers at the bar. Maybe even some over-the-top "boy what I'd do to the waitress" kinda words that would not be taken well if printed out for our wives to read. The point is...it's stupid guy talk that would appear completely boneheaded in print.
 
dolfan_md said:
I'd be willing to bet any number of players, of all race and ethnicity, have video, text messages, voice mails, emails and other digital traces that would be quite explosive if brought to light. Riley Cooper seems to have made his mea culpa and been allowed to move-on. The key difference seems to be the common belief that Riley's words were anger fueled with intention to hurt and it seems to be the perception that Incognito's VM was typical of his outrageous personality and desire for shock....there is some evidence that Martin shared the message and laughed about it with his teammates. The unanimous support by his peers and the apparent close friendship that Martin and Incognito shared publicly also makes this a head-scratcher. I really hope Demaurice Smith can get these two together and work this out without any legal problems that blow-up the Phins over what seems to be a whole lot of nothing. My buddies and I might talk a whole lot of trash over beers at the bar. Maybe even some over-the-top "boy what I'd do to the waitress" kinda words that would not be taken well if printed out for our wives to read. The point is...it's stupid guy talk that would appear completely boneheaded in print.
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...and able to be used to try their teams in the court of public opinion, to further an ulterior motive.

IMO it's looking like Martin played perhaps the only card he had to get the team to continue to pay him while he sat out.
 
shouright said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cum_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

Having paid close attention to the "Martin & Incognito" situation as it has evolved over time, most notably with the recent outpouring of sentiment from those closest to the situation (the Dolphins' players), my perception is that the people on the "outside" (the fans and the media) were quick to take the following two events:

  1. Jonathan Martin's leaving the team, and
  2. Richie Incognito's voicemail and text messages,
...and perceive that one caused the other, when in reality the cause of Jonathan Martin's leaving the team is likely unknown to anyone other than Jonathan Martin and his close associates. Hell, even Jonathan Martin may be mistaken about the reason he left the team. He may not be fully aware of his own unconscious motives, and he may be incorrectly attributing the cause of his behavior to Richie Incognito, when in reality the cause of his behavior is something different altogether.

As in the quote I copied and pasted above, it's easy for us and the media to do what we call "counterfactual thinking" and construe that, had Incognito not treated Martin the way he did, Martin would not have left the team.

We can't be altogether certain of that, however. It's entirely possible that Jonathan Martin's reasons for leaving the team had nothing at all to do with Richie Incognito, and Martin is using Incognito's voicemail and text messages to "try the Miami Dolphins in the court of public opinion" and get them to pay the rest of his salary for the year, while he recuperates from whatever it was that drove him away from the team.

IMO Ben Volin wrote an excellent article in support of that idea here: http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2...ple-appears/ifzcI7AjapFF4rPbi3aF2J/story.html

At any rate, I think some serious reassessment of this situation is in order for everyone involved, including the fans and the media, who are likely making Richie Incognito's life a living hell right now, when that may in fact not be warranted in the least.

We need to step back to square one here and realize, IMO, that the cause of Jonathan Martin's leaving the team is to this day still unknown, and wait for the facts of the case to come out in due time.
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Well first of all you conveniently neglected to mention maybe the most important fact:

3) The Dolphins AND NFL, confirmed the existence of the VM/Texts and the Dolphins subsequently SUSPENDED INCOGNITO INDEFINITELY...

It was the team and League REACTION to the aforementioned events which delivered the CAUSATION on a platter and further also admitted GUILT... Are you seriously trying to intimate that the two events ARE NOT RELATED? if so what in the world would be the Dolphins agenda for not revealing that they suspended Incognito for DIFFERENT REASONS???

Honestly one of the things I am most tired of is this CONSTANT contradiction by the 'Cog' side... When they scream to high heaven that Incognito is being railroaded and then proceed to do the EXACT SAME THING to Martin... Most often in the EXACT SAME POST. You don't get to scream for fairness and equality for ONLY ONE SIDE.

Your Boston globe article is a PERFECT example of this... it begins by lamenting about the treatment Cogs is getting through pure speculation, conjecture, laziness and stereotype ONLY TO THEN INTRODUCE ARGUMENTS AGAINST MARTIN BASED ON THE EXACT SAME THINGS. :bobdole:

The funny thing to me is EVERYONE on here... On the Cog side... is treating this like these VM's and Texts are the EXTENT of the abuse when NO ONE knows... They say 'man up, this is football, nancy boy' and every single ridiculous outdated, out of touch, obtuse and irrelevant Knute Rockne cliche they can think of because they are working on the assumption that this is where the abuse began and ended. Also that these would not offend 'them' in the same scenario... :lol:

But It is actually the Cognito camp that is doing FAR MORE of this kind of arguing... and speculating... Want FURTHER PROOF OF IT? Take a peek into the Jonathan martin hires 'lawyer' thread and look at all the speculating and agenda pushing rhetoric from the Cog side in the name of 'fairness'... The fact that he had the nerve to hire representation... :lol: it's laughable. Honestly who is surprised by this???? No one but its the Cog side trying to spin it to their advantage. So Martin is not allowed to hire who he thinks will best represent him now??? Nope all part of the so called 'Martin' ... ummm *ahem*... *Cough cough* 'grand plan'...

I'll say this for Martin... so far he is the only party proved to have a credible grievance... in this whole freakin clusterf*** ... and that was established by the Dolphins themselves..

*edited for spelling*
 
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