Number 1 picks of the last 20 years
WTP = Worth the pick, NWTP = Not worth the pick or Neutral.
1988 Atlanta Aundray Bruce, LB 11 years no significant achievements NWTP.
1989 Dallas Troy Aikman, QB WTP, Hall of fame
1990 Indianapolis Jeff George, QB 15 years 27,602 yards, NWTP.
1991 Dallas Russell Maryland, DT 10 years NWTP
1992 Indianapolis Steve Emtman, DT Bust, NWTP
1993 New England Drew Bledsoe, QB WTP, Hall of fame probably not.
1994 Cincinnati Dan Wilkinson, DT NWTP
1995 Cincinnati Ki-Jana Carter, RB Ha! Lol do I even have to tell you, NWTP
1996 NY Jets Keyshawn Johnson, WR Neutral, argument can be made both ways.
1997 St. Louis Orlando Pace, OT Franchise tackle, WTP.
1998 Indianapolis Peyton Manning, QB Franchise QB, more than likely in the hall, WTP
1999 Cleveland Tim Couch, QB Huge bust NWTP
2000 Cleveland Courtney Brown, DE Bust, NWTP
2001 Atlanta Michael Vick, QB I will let you all debate this one but I say NWTP
2002 Houston David Carr, QB Too close to call, needs more time.
2003 Cincinnati Carson Palmer, QB Good QB, WTP
2004 San Diego Eli Manning, QB Good QB, WTP
2005 San Francisco Alex Smith, QB Needs time
2006 Houston Mario Williams, DE Needs time
2007 Oakland JaMarcus Russell, QB Needs time
Statistical break down,
I will exclude Alex Smith, Mario Williams and JaMarcus Russel due to lack of playing time, bad team etc… Note: I will say it looks like Smith may shape up to be a NWTP and Williams being a WTP. (Hind sight is 20/20 see Mike Vick, if you think he was worth the pick ask yourself if you would rather have Dew Brees leading the Phins or Vick regardless of jail time). That leaves this;
17 players of witch 9 are NWTP hands down, 1 or 2 neutrals (depending if you agree with my assessments) and 6 that are hands down worth the number one overall pick (valued at 3000 points). That equates to a 33.3% chance that Miami has a number 1 pick that is WTP or for all you pessimists out there a 66.6% failure chance to further set the dolphins back franchise wise.
This is why I say Parcells and Ireland have the right idea of trading the pick. Reduce the value and investment of the pick by spreading it over several picks and/or a proven player(s). Of course the two obvious trade down choices would be Dallas and New England but there are a couple scenarios that would have the Ravens, Bears and Cinci trading up also. With the huge amount of cash needed to lock up the number 1 overall pick there is almost no value in keeping the pick given the numbers. It makes better business sense to trade down and add numbers, increasing the chance to find another Zack Thomas or Jason Taylor in later rounds. Strength in numbers I say!
