Mel Kiper Mock Draft 1.0

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It's difficult for you to see the top QB in the draft going before a guy who's 5'9?

I like Murray, he's got a rifle for an arm and he's a great athlete but size is as important as anything in the NFL. When you are THAT small, and yes he's tiny for a starting QB, you won't last in the NFL.
The bigger issue on Murray (no pun intended) is whether he would be committed to football. Will he play both football and baseball? Does he prefer one over the other?

Yes, I think his height is an issue as well. I also think Haskins will be the first qb taken, but that's just my opinion.
 

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A little off topic, but with Flores coming to Miami you have to think the Dolphins will run an offense similar to New England's. What qb in this draft is most like Tom Brady? I know that's a difficult question. We're talking about a Hall of Famer with some of the best touch, ball placement, accuracy and durability we have seen at the position. But, he's never been a great deep passer and the Patriots offense is so geared to getting the ball out quickly to their fast wr's. It's predicated on quick decision making, pre-reads, smarts, patience etc.

It's certainly a possibility that Flores will be looking for a "good" quarterback and gear the offense around that players skills. But for the sake of discussion what do you say? Is it Jones, Finley? Nobody close?
 

j-off-her-doll

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A little off topic, but with Flores coming to Miami you have to think the Dolphins will run an offense similar to New England's. What qb in this draft is most like Tom Brady? I know that's a difficult question. We're talking about a Hall of Famer with some of the best touch, ball placement, accuracy and durability we have seen at the position. But, he's never been a great deep passer and the Patriots offense is so geared to getting the ball out quickly to their fast wr's. It's predicated on quick decision making, pre-reads, smarts, patience etc.

It's certainly a possibility that Flores will be looking for a "good" quarterback and gear the offense around that players skills. But for the sake of discussion what do you say? Is it Jones, Finley? Nobody close?
Haskins is closest but none are especially similar. If that's the approach in looking for a QB, though, I'd be disappointed.
 

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The two of them faced off in what was in essence an eliminator for the Big 10 champ game. It was a hell of a game and Grier held his own, both QBs looked on the money that night. Probably worth checking out the highlights somewhere on youtube.
My personal opinion is, I like both. But I really love Murray for us because of something that is immediately apparent, he's a difference maker, a game changer, someone who can literally change the perception of this franchise overnight. He's a gamble at his size, but the pay out is absolutely massive. Grier is a 2nd round talent that will go in the late first I feel, he's someone I think you take a chance on but he's not game changing in the way Murray could be.
I see what you are saying, and that was a very good game. I believe kyler Murray could potentially change the team as well, but with the size of Will Grier he would be able to stand in the pocket and take harder hits instead of scrambling and fumble or even getting hurt.
 

j-off-her-doll

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I see what you are saying, and that was a very good game. I believe kyler Murray could potentially change the team as well, but with the size of Will Grier he would be able to stand in the pocket and take harder hits instead of scrambling and fumble or even getting hurt.
Grier is 6'2 218. If Murray is 5'10 195, they'll have the exact same BMI (28).
 

Awsi Dooger

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It's difficult for you to see the top QB in the draft going before a guy who's 5'9?

I like Murray, he's got a rifle for an arm and he's a great athlete but size is as important as anything in the NFL. When you are THAT small, and yes he's tiny for a starting QB, you won't last in the NFL.
What percentage of plays do you think the 5-9 will be the decisive variable?

Now contrast that to the percentage of plays in which Kyler Murray's special ability will be the decisive variable.

Baker Mayfield averaged upwards of 11 YPA in two consecutive college seasons. That is unheard of. It is like option team territory for a quarterback throwing a handful of times per game. To do it back to back was surreal. I had some nitpicks about Mayfield's running ability and specifically how it compared to a young Russell Wilson. But at least I realized in the late going that the 11 YPA was like a different dimension. I am not always a fan of my own subjectivity, not when the most vital numbers are in conflict. I learned that decades ago. This 11 YPA stuff is the latest example. Don't try to rationalize it away. Just allow it to work in your favor.

Likewise, Kyler Murray averaged over 11 YPA this season. I can already see the adjusters showing up with the same program type of thing. Okay, what are the odds at Jalen Hurts or any Oklahoma quarterback averages above 11 YPA next season? I would make it below 20%. I'll throw away my opinion and conclude it was simply two special players in the same program back to back.

Tua also averaged above 11 YPA. I'm not going to listen to any nonsense that Jake Fromm is in the same category. Fromm has been holding nice and steady in the 9 YPA range, which is very good for the SEC. Drew Lock had a 9.5 YPA season in 2017.

I'm not going to waste time looking at tape when that 11 YPA stuff is smack in my face.

Besides, Haskins has some scary sitting duck qualities as translated to the NFL.
 

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Haskins and Murray are the two I'd trade up for. Lock is intriguing enough to take if he drops to #13. I would pass on Jones and Grier in round one, but might take them in the second. I've seen both mocked in the first, but I don't see the value there. Jones's arm strength concerns me, but other than that I do think he could run a Patriots-type offense.

If Lock is the guy at #13 (I don't think he gets there), I'd want to play him close to half the season to get an indication of whether he's the one moving forward.
 

Awsi Dooger

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Haskins is closest but none are especially similar. If that's the approach in looking for a QB, though, I'd be disappointed.
I already posted in this thread yesterday but I hadn't seen this exchange. When I got to that question a few minutes ago about quarterback closest to Brady, I paused the scroll and thought about it. The only answer was Dwayne Haskins. Not exactly a match but easily the closest.

Then I drop down one post and j-off-her-doll already said that. I wasn't surprised.

Haskins is going to be a pocket type who will need to rely almost exclusively on that, as opposed to Murray darting all over the place or Lock with some poor-man Mahomes maneuverability. I don't know how sharp Haskins will be in dissecting NFL defenses. I don't know if he'll develop a feel for sliding around in the pocket like Brady. Guaranteed he will not have the mental strength and determination of Brady.

I'd prefer someone who can adapt to evolving requirements of the play. That doesn't describe Haskins. He needs a better offensive line than other top quarterbacks.

Best qualities about Haskins are that he has a nice relaxed style out there, and he fully expects to be great. That late two touchdown rally against Penn State on the road is representative of how Haskins can raise his game when required, unlike someone like Tannehill. Likewise the final drive in regulation against Maryland when it was touchdown or an embarrassing defeat.

Jared Goff is a better comparison for Haskins. j-off-her-doll provided that one several weeks ago. Haskins likewise could look like a bust early and then terrific a year later, if everything improved around him, or he could take it the other way and really decline as a sophomore if the offense had personnel problems combined with an overall team slump. A Kyler Murray type can be running around and causing problems no matter the offensive line specifics.
 

j-off-her-doll

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I already posted in this thread yesterday but I hadn't seen this exchange. When I got to that question a few minutes ago about quarterback closest to Brady, I paused the scroll and thought about it. The only answer was Dwayne Haskins. Not exactly a match but easily the closest.

Then I drop down one post and j-off-her-doll already said that. I wasn't surprised.

Haskins is going to be a pocket type who will need to rely almost exclusively on that, as opposed to Murray darting all over the place or Lock with some poor-man Mahomes maneuverability. I don't know how sharp Haskins will be in dissecting NFL defenses. I don't know if he'll develop a feel for sliding around in the pocket like Brady. Guaranteed he will not have the mental strength and determination of Brady.

I'd prefer someone who can adapt to evolving requirements of the play. That doesn't describe Haskins. He needs a better offensive line than other top quarterbacks.

Best qualities about Haskins are that he has a nice relaxed style out there, and he fully expects to be great. That late two touchdown rally against Penn State on the road is representative of how Haskins can raise his game when required, unlike someone like Tannehill. Likewise the final drive in regulation against Maryland when it was touchdown or an embarrassing defeat.

Jared Goff is a better comparison for Haskins. j-off-her-doll provided that one several weeks ago. Haskins likewise could look like a bust early and then terrific a year later, if everything improved around him, or he could take it the other way and really decline as a sophomore if the offense had personnel problems combined with an overall team slump. A Kyler Murray type can be running around and causing problems no matter the offensive line specifics.
I think we're seeing eye to eye all the way on Murray and Haskins.
 

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Personally and this is not an endorsement of his total skill set or NFL prospects but if I had to pick out a Tom Brady-like quarterback prospect in this draft, in terms of pure form and structure, and comparing it to Tom Brady of Michigan rather than Tom Brady of New England, it would be Taylor Cornelius of Oklahoma State.

Very similar feet on the drop, the way they slide those long legs with the bent knees and the good ankle flexion. It was one of the first things I noticed about Taylor Cornelius and I knew immediately who it reminded me of. They also have similar throwing mechanics, and Cornelius throws a deep ball such that if you were to wash all coloring into black and white, you might well swear is Tom Brady throwing the football.

Cornelius is good at throwing a few NFL routes that Brady excels at, as well. Both of them very nicely sized players with Cornelius coming in about 1.5 inches taller. You'll never accuse either of being a great athlete.
 

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What percentage of plays do you think the 5-9 will be the decisive variable?

Now contrast that to the percentage of plays in which Kyler Murray's special ability will be the decisive variable.

Baker Mayfield averaged upwards of 11 YPA in two consecutive college seasons. That is unheard of. It is like option team territory for a quarterback throwing a handful of times per game. To do it back to back was surreal. I had some nitpicks about Mayfield's running ability and specifically how it compared to a young Russell Wilson. But at least I realized in the late going that the 11 YPA was like a different dimension. I am not always a fan of my own subjectivity, not when the most vital numbers are in conflict. I learned that decades ago. This 11 YPA stuff is the latest example. Don't try to rationalize it away. Just allow it to work in your favor.

Likewise, Kyler Murray averaged over 11 YPA this season. I can already see the adjusters showing up with the same program type of thing. Okay, what are the odds at Jalen Hurts or any Oklahoma quarterback averages above 11 YPA next season? I would make it below 20%. I'll throw away my opinion and conclude it was simply two special players in the same program back to back.

Tua also averaged above 11 YPA. I'm not going to listen to any nonsense that Jake Fromm is in the same category. Fromm has been holding nice and steady in the 9 YPA range, which is very good for the SEC. Drew Lock had a 9.5 YPA season in 2017.

I'm not going to waste time looking at tape when that 11 YPA stuff is smack in my face.

Besides, Haskins has some scary sitting duck qualities as translated to the NFL.

With his wheels, and his rifle for an arm, I don't think his height is going to affect him like it would another QB that is the same height.

My reasoning for thinking he won't be a good NFL QB isn't that he's not tall enough to make plays, he is. I actually thinks he could light up the NFL for a few games.

It's that at 5'9/5'10 185/195lbs he's going to get hurt sooner rather than later. Either seriously hurt or always battling nagging injuries type of hurt. Either way I just don't think he can hold up at his size. The NFL protects the shvt out of QBs now but he's not a pocket guy, he's gonna be moving around and he's gonna get hit.
 

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With his wheels, and his rifle for an arm, I don't think his height is going to affect him like it would another QB that is the same height.

My reasoning for thinking he won't be a good NFL QB isn't that he's not tall enough to make plays, he is. I actually thinks he could light up the NFL for a few games.

It's that at 5'9/5'10 185/195lbs he's going to get hurt sooner rather than later. Either seriously hurt or always battling nagging injuries type of hurt. Either way I just don't think he can hold up at his size. The NFL protects the shvt out of QBs now but he's not a pocket guy, he's gonna be moving around and he's gonna get hit.
On top of that, the well coached defenses will game plan to keep him in the pocket and then put pressure up the middle.
He seems more like the type of player you design special plays for, rather than an every down QB. You don’t invest the 13th pick on a player like that.
 

j-off-her-doll

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With his wheels, and his rifle for an arm, I don't think his height is going to affect him like it would another QB that is the same height.

My reasoning for thinking he won't be a good NFL QB isn't that he's not tall enough to make plays, he is. I actually thinks he could light up the NFL for a few games.

It's that at 5'9/5'10 185/195lbs he's going to get hurt sooner rather than later. Either seriously hurt or always battling nagging injuries type of hurt. Either way I just don't think he can hold up at his size. The NFL protects the shvt out of QBs now but he's not a pocket guy, he's gonna be moving around and he's gonna get hit.
I don't see this as a legitimate knock at all. Players get hurt, and it's possible that Murray will get hurt, but Wentz and Luck have missed considerable time with their ideal frames. I'd rather have a QB who is adept at avoiding contact, as Murray is, than a guy who can "take a hit."
 
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