Metrics are for....

[futurescout]

People that don't know football.. Tired of hearing about all these crazy statistic. Numbers can lie and never tell the whole picture, tape does. The eye in the sky doesn't lie.

 

[SCall13]

Huh?

 

[futurescout]

Ever since that book about Billy Beane and then turned movie Money Ball people are trying to come up with something like that for football. TOTALLY DIFFERENT game. The most complex sport, there is no secret forumal or equation. Film is the only formula

 

[2413fanphins]

dont worry, there are only a few guys on here who wholeheartedly believe in the stats they post... a lot of the others, only agree with them when they flip flop their position on a certain player, and than the rest of us basically disregard them completely, or almost completely.

one thing for sure, it's not hard to distinguish the three groups of people I just mentioned.

 

[futurescout]

There are just dumb statistics out there. Like Jay Cutler counts for more wins than Tom Brady... get real people

---------- Post added at 05:57 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:56 PM ----------

dont worry, there are only a few guys on here who wholeheartedly believe in the stats they post... a lot of the others, only agree with them when they flip flop their position on a certain player, and than the rest of us basically disregard them completely, or almost completely.

one thing for sure, it's not hard to distinguish the three groups of people I just mentioned.

It didn't take me to long to figure that part out haha

 

[FearTheBeard]

I agree with you to a degree. But statistics have a place, tape is by far the most important, but when you aren't watching a guy every week it's a good framework. PFF is at the very least a good resource, I remember when Evan Mathis was off everyone's radar he graded out near the top of the guard rankings. Then he got a 30 mil contract, you simply can't watch every single player. Metrics work great in baseball, I don't think it should be entirely disregarded.

 

[futurescout]

I agree with you. But statistics have a place, tape is by far the most important, but when you aren't watching a guy every week it's a good framework. PFF is at the very least a good resource, I remember when Evan Mathis was off everyone's radar he graded out near the top of the guard rankings. Then he got a 30 mil contract, you simply can't watch every single player. Metrics work great in baseball, I don't think it should be entirely disregarded.

PFF grades off of tape, which is what every pro personnel staff does. I realize they have some crazy statistics on their site, but from what I understand their player grades and rankings are strictly off of tape. Don't get me wrong I think team statistics are important like, points, points allowed, turnover margin, 3rd down O/D, Redzone O/D etc.

 

[spiketex]

People that don't know football.. Tired of hearing about all these crazy statistic. Numbers can lie and never tell the whole picture, tape does. The eye in the sky doesn't lie.

Well every team in the NFL devotes enormous resources to analyzing all sorts of metrics that were not looked at 30 years ago. The metrics for every player, in every game are analyzed very carefully. It might seem cool to just say look at the tape, but the game has evolved and I doubt that it will be going back to the good old days.

In the 1948 Presidential election, Thomas Dewey preferred not to go around the country campaigning. He was ahead in the polls and expected to win. However, Truman beat him in a surprise result because he put the effort into aggressive campaigning. Dewey dismissed the practice of campaigning as something disdainful that was beneath him. Your comments about the crazy statistics in football sound analogous to Dewey's dismissive view of campaigning for the Presidency.

 

[Dr. Phin]

People that don't know football.. Tired of hearing about all these crazy statistic. Numbers can lie and never tell the whole picture, tape does. The eye in the sky doesn't lie.

The eye in the sky can lie...look at all the folks around here that thought Martin could handle LT...or that Crowder was good...

Stats can really point out items that some people just don't see...or don't want to see.

That being said, you can't measure everything...but you can measure 8-8...

 

[FearTheBeard]

PFF grades off of tape, which is what every pro personnel staff does. I realize they have some crazy statistics on their site, but from what I understand their player grades and rankings are strictly off of tape. Don't get me wrong I think team statistics are important like, points, points allowed, turnover margin, 3rd down O/D, Redzone O/D etc.

Yup you're right that they're based off tape. I just assumed you were disregarding PFF like so many people do. In reality they're actually a great resource and something to consider when you haven't seen much of a guy. Like who's really keying in on Fernando Velasco in season? I've got gamepass but before that and before PFF it was a lot of uneducated guessing. People have lots of opinions on virtually every player, and from personal experience a lot of it is shaped by the media. I say I wanna get Roger Saffold, that's based on PFF has told me. I still need to watch him and I could easily change my opinion. Stats definitely don't tell the whole story one bit.

My favorite PFF stat I came across recently was Tanny was 7th in the NFL in QBR on play action plays, but he was 30th in % of plays that play action was run. Go **** yourself Sherman.

 

[Mudder1310]

Ever since that book about Billy Beane and then turned movie Money Ball people are trying to come up with something like that for football. TOTALLY DIFFERENT game. The most complex sport, there is no secret forumal or equation. Film is the only formula

To be fair, baseball is much more about probability than football, so metrics and tendencies are valuable. There are no MLB teams that don't use sabermetrics to determine player values.

 

[futurescout]

Well every team in the NFL devotes enormous resources to analyzing all sorts of metrics that were not looked at 30 years ago. The metrics for every player, in every game are analyzed very carefully. It might seem cool to just say look at the tape, but the game has evolved and I doubt that it will be going back to the good old days.

The thing is none of it makes sense. There are to many variables that can't be determined by some statistics professor, who doesn't know the first thing about football. I don't care what anyone says numbers are deceiving and don't tell the whole picture. Film is the closest thing you can get. "Analytics" and "Metrics" are just the flavor of the month, everyone is caught up on the Billy Beane book/movie. This isn't baseball. Football is to damn complex for some formula or statistic. I wonder how much analytics Bill Belichick or Ozzie Newsome use?

 

[Cougar Guy]

Look to the very best organizations in any given field and I think you'll find that they are ALL using statistical models and analytics to help them manage their operations. They invest millions of dollars for a reason. It improves results.

 

[futurescout]

To be fair, baseball is much more about probability than football, so metrics and tendencies are valuable. There are no MLB teams that don't use sabermetrics to determine player values.

I think it has a place in baseball, not football. I wasn't trying to make that argument. Baseball is more predictable than Football.

 

[futurescout]

The eye in the sky can lie...look at all the folks around here that thought Martin could handle LT...or that Crowder was good...

Stats can really point out items that some people just don't see...or don't want to see.

That being said, you can't measure everything...but you can measure 8-8...

Anyone who thought Jonathan Martin was a good football player doesn't know anything about football. Luck had the "Peyton Manning effect" in college, getting rid of the ball quickly, helping out his Oline. And Martin was the main benefactor, because he "protected Andrew Luck's blindside" when in reality he wasn't a good player at all. He got absolutely abused in 2011 by Nick Perry from USC now with the Packers.