keithjackson
junkyard dolphin
If the Dolphins have a kryptonite, it's a disruptive DT. The Jaguars happen to have one of the most talented rising stars at the position in SenDerrick Marks; expect to hear his name called often on Sunday. In fact, Jacksonville may have the best DLine we've seen since Bufallo. All those clamouring for a blow out, or for a five touchdown game, need to slow your roll. These are not pushovers. Just like Miami has had an offensive resurgence over the last three games, Jacksonville's defense has blossomed over that same period. Where our offense has averaged 29 points, their defense has allowed an average of 13. Before whooping Cleveland, they played Tennessee and within the final minute they scored a touchdown, recovered the onside kick, got into scoring position for the game winning field goal (blocked). The week before against Pittsburgh, the score was 9-10 in the fourth when they forced a turnover and got into scoring position to win the game before a Bortles brainfart. This is a GOOD team, and they have made an art of sticking around. Miami is lucky Jax won last week at home, because it was imminent. We are also lucky that their best player, Poz, is out ( and perhaps Ball). Let's look at the match ups and see what Storylines we might be talking about on Monday morning:
Is this Blake Bortles' week? I like Bortles, but he may be the worst QB we will face all year. He has 11 INTs to 8 TDs, and his 3.2% TD rate and 4.4% INT rate are both in the NFL's bottom three. His down the field accuracy is shoddy, and his decision making is bordering on oblivious. When in doubt, he will attempt the pass anyway. Still, the Jags are throwing the ball 62% of the time (#5), especially on second and third downs. However, he can be dissuaded by solid coverage if he's not pressured. I fully expect him to attempt 40 passes, with 20 of them being screens. Jax goes 3-and-out 26% of the time (#29). He's especially oblivious when it comes to running into sacks. While he is the worst redzone QB (59.4 rating), he is the second best inside the 10 (118.8), he's rated 59.6 in the second half (especially terrible in the Q3), but the second best QB in 4WR sets (121.0), and he is proving to be good in two minute drills. Where he excels is running - yes, he's better than RT17. (This game may set QB rushing records!) So far even bad Ryan Tannehill is better than Blake Bortles, but we haven't seen good Blake Bortles yet. Honestly, if Blake played mistake free football they probably are 3-0 over the past three weeks. This week may not be any different.
Denard Robinson scares me. He's powerful and fast, and authoritatively follows his blocks with better vision than anyone we have in the AFC East. It's shocking that he hasn't been the starter until last week. Throw out all the Jaguars rushing stats you've read up until now, because they are about to blow up. With Robinson and Bortles running, don't be surprised if they out-gain us on the ground this week. (They do have more 10+ yards rushes than we do.) Their WRs feature three big talent rookies, including Allen Robinson, who many Dolphans wanted over Jarvis Landry in the draft. This may be the most interesting sub-story of the whole game. Who has the bigger impact, Landry or Robinson, may be one of the small battles that decide the outcome of a close contest. Overall, I find the Jaguar WRs underwhelming after watching game after game. They have trouble consistently winning one-on-one matches and gaining the separation an inaccurate QB needs. Still, if they get the ball in space, you might need four players to bring down A Rob; he's a tough SOB.
Defense We need tight coverage this week to force underneath throws, as we defend screens well. Our pass rush should be able to force a Bortles into bad decisions, as they are allowing sacks 10.3% of the time (#31). I would crowd that line of scrimmage on early downs to get a body on Denard because he doesn't have a lot of Shake-and-bake, and to contain Blake's happy feet. It's imperative to limit their run game. While we are both poor on third down, they are more prone to third and longs. Force him to throw and our secondary should take care of the rest. Finnegan (8) and Grimes (6) have both proved adept at getting their hands on the ball this season. We need interceptions and turnovers this week. The Jags average an NFL worst 15 points a game, but it's not because they haven't been in scoring position. Ultimately that offense is a bunch of toddlers and Zane Beadles with a "Coming of Age" culture that should see various players having breakout games over the rest of the season. We just need to hope it's not Blake bottles this week (or Allen Robinson bailing him out). We have the pass defense to rattle even the best QBs, but if they can run against us like KC, then it's going to be a long afternoon.
On offense, we have a tough matchup. Beside Marks, Tevin Smith is lookin great lately. Their big guys are fast and we need a great performance by the interior Oline to match the production we are used to. Jax is stuffing 12.2% of runs for no or negative gains (#5), and their 3.8 rushing average against (#8) is better than us. It's hard to run straight at them, and even harder to run a stretch play. The only weakness I see is running off tackle, so Brandon Albert is going to need a huge run-blocking game. I wouldn't run anything behind the line of scrimmage or that takes too long to set up. I honestly have no clue how Ryan Tannehill's read-option will fare, and so that might be the most exciting part of the offense to watch for me. Passing the ball, they have a solid secondary, though perhaps it may be depleted by injuries this week. Their weakest link is at linebacker. I'm sending tackle-breakers Clay and Landry right at their backups. They seem to give up most yardage in the middle of the field, so expect lots of slants and seams. I'd especially target where the LBs pass off to the DBs to test that chemistry. Quick passes are a must, especially if we want to spread them out and utilize the sideline, to neutralize their potent pass rush (22 sacks #3). To win this game, we need to start fast and get out ahead. The Jags' last three opponents settled for field goals and had a cat fight on their hands into the fourth quarter. Touchdowns early should prove too much to overcome, and if we go into halftime leading big, they will implode in the third quarter. However, if we see a Miami offense that loses the turnover battle, they have all the necessary ingredients to control the LOS.
Other The Jags are the least penalized team in the NFL, we are also top 3. Special Teams should be a push. Their return game is solid; I loved Ace Sanders in college and he is due to break one any week now. Our suspect coverage unit might just be what he's looking for. While Jax seems primed to win the hidden yardage battle, we should still enjoy better field position. Not only does Miami have the best average starting FP in the NFL, JAX is giving up the 2nd worst FP (32.9), and their own starting FP (25) is 29th. This is mostly due to TOs; they are turning the ball over 17% of drives and we are forcing TOs 15.5%. We should see our streak of starting drives in the opponents' redzone continue this week. Winning the turnover battle is as important this week than ever.
Prediction Overall, on paper we should be able to bully Blake Bortles into conceding this game with stupid mistakes. However, this is exactly the kind of matchup for Ryan Tannehill that gives us fits. I expect a close game with lots of blunders, sacks, turnovers, and fourth quarter dramatics that will make this a lot closer than a lot of Dolphans feel comfortable predicting. But this team has played at a borderline elite level at times, and I nothing about it seems like a fluke.
Miami 21 Jacksonville 17
Is this Blake Bortles' week? I like Bortles, but he may be the worst QB we will face all year. He has 11 INTs to 8 TDs, and his 3.2% TD rate and 4.4% INT rate are both in the NFL's bottom three. His down the field accuracy is shoddy, and his decision making is bordering on oblivious. When in doubt, he will attempt the pass anyway. Still, the Jags are throwing the ball 62% of the time (#5), especially on second and third downs. However, he can be dissuaded by solid coverage if he's not pressured. I fully expect him to attempt 40 passes, with 20 of them being screens. Jax goes 3-and-out 26% of the time (#29). He's especially oblivious when it comes to running into sacks. While he is the worst redzone QB (59.4 rating), he is the second best inside the 10 (118.8), he's rated 59.6 in the second half (especially terrible in the Q3), but the second best QB in 4WR sets (121.0), and he is proving to be good in two minute drills. Where he excels is running - yes, he's better than RT17. (This game may set QB rushing records!) So far even bad Ryan Tannehill is better than Blake Bortles, but we haven't seen good Blake Bortles yet. Honestly, if Blake played mistake free football they probably are 3-0 over the past three weeks. This week may not be any different.
Denard Robinson scares me. He's powerful and fast, and authoritatively follows his blocks with better vision than anyone we have in the AFC East. It's shocking that he hasn't been the starter until last week. Throw out all the Jaguars rushing stats you've read up until now, because they are about to blow up. With Robinson and Bortles running, don't be surprised if they out-gain us on the ground this week. (They do have more 10+ yards rushes than we do.) Their WRs feature three big talent rookies, including Allen Robinson, who many Dolphans wanted over Jarvis Landry in the draft. This may be the most interesting sub-story of the whole game. Who has the bigger impact, Landry or Robinson, may be one of the small battles that decide the outcome of a close contest. Overall, I find the Jaguar WRs underwhelming after watching game after game. They have trouble consistently winning one-on-one matches and gaining the separation an inaccurate QB needs. Still, if they get the ball in space, you might need four players to bring down A Rob; he's a tough SOB.
Defense We need tight coverage this week to force underneath throws, as we defend screens well. Our pass rush should be able to force a Bortles into bad decisions, as they are allowing sacks 10.3% of the time (#31). I would crowd that line of scrimmage on early downs to get a body on Denard because he doesn't have a lot of Shake-and-bake, and to contain Blake's happy feet. It's imperative to limit their run game. While we are both poor on third down, they are more prone to third and longs. Force him to throw and our secondary should take care of the rest. Finnegan (8) and Grimes (6) have both proved adept at getting their hands on the ball this season. We need interceptions and turnovers this week. The Jags average an NFL worst 15 points a game, but it's not because they haven't been in scoring position. Ultimately that offense is a bunch of toddlers and Zane Beadles with a "Coming of Age" culture that should see various players having breakout games over the rest of the season. We just need to hope it's not Blake bottles this week (or Allen Robinson bailing him out). We have the pass defense to rattle even the best QBs, but if they can run against us like KC, then it's going to be a long afternoon.
On offense, we have a tough matchup. Beside Marks, Tevin Smith is lookin great lately. Their big guys are fast and we need a great performance by the interior Oline to match the production we are used to. Jax is stuffing 12.2% of runs for no or negative gains (#5), and their 3.8 rushing average against (#8) is better than us. It's hard to run straight at them, and even harder to run a stretch play. The only weakness I see is running off tackle, so Brandon Albert is going to need a huge run-blocking game. I wouldn't run anything behind the line of scrimmage or that takes too long to set up. I honestly have no clue how Ryan Tannehill's read-option will fare, and so that might be the most exciting part of the offense to watch for me. Passing the ball, they have a solid secondary, though perhaps it may be depleted by injuries this week. Their weakest link is at linebacker. I'm sending tackle-breakers Clay and Landry right at their backups. They seem to give up most yardage in the middle of the field, so expect lots of slants and seams. I'd especially target where the LBs pass off to the DBs to test that chemistry. Quick passes are a must, especially if we want to spread them out and utilize the sideline, to neutralize their potent pass rush (22 sacks #3). To win this game, we need to start fast and get out ahead. The Jags' last three opponents settled for field goals and had a cat fight on their hands into the fourth quarter. Touchdowns early should prove too much to overcome, and if we go into halftime leading big, they will implode in the third quarter. However, if we see a Miami offense that loses the turnover battle, they have all the necessary ingredients to control the LOS.
Other The Jags are the least penalized team in the NFL, we are also top 3. Special Teams should be a push. Their return game is solid; I loved Ace Sanders in college and he is due to break one any week now. Our suspect coverage unit might just be what he's looking for. While Jax seems primed to win the hidden yardage battle, we should still enjoy better field position. Not only does Miami have the best average starting FP in the NFL, JAX is giving up the 2nd worst FP (32.9), and their own starting FP (25) is 29th. This is mostly due to TOs; they are turning the ball over 17% of drives and we are forcing TOs 15.5%. We should see our streak of starting drives in the opponents' redzone continue this week. Winning the turnover battle is as important this week than ever.
Prediction Overall, on paper we should be able to bully Blake Bortles into conceding this game with stupid mistakes. However, this is exactly the kind of matchup for Ryan Tannehill that gives us fits. I expect a close game with lots of blunders, sacks, turnovers, and fourth quarter dramatics that will make this a lot closer than a lot of Dolphans feel comfortable predicting. But this team has played at a borderline elite level at times, and I nothing about it seems like a fluke.
Miami 21 Jacksonville 17
