Miami Dolphins’ current view of Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert might surprise you

rickd13

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What's the difference between "If we don't get this guy then we can get the next guy" and "move on to plan B?"
Plan B is what happens when it's out of your hands. Plan A is doing what you can to get your QB. Many fans want to let other teams dictate to who Miami has left to pick from.
 

rickd13

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Do you play poker? Or do deals in business?

Applying these principles, it is risk vs reward.

Risk:

Tua - Durability, can’t hold up in the NFL. Might be fine, injury seems like its healing, but was horrific, and the players in NFL that will be sacking him are only faster and stronger, so it is a real risk.

Herbert - Hasn’t unlocked his true potential, perhaps he doesn’t have the confidence needed to succeed at the next level.

Love. Really regressed last year, lots of interceptions, but year before was really excellent.

Reward:

Tua. Has shown confidence, Accuracy, and it Factor. Has brought it on the most difficult stage in college football. Natural leader, and an excellent prospect. If he can stay healthy, this guy will be an elite franchise QB. If he can’t, he won’t.

Herbert. Big, cannon arm, good athelete, high ceiling if you subscribe to the possibility that you can coach him up. Hasn’t demonstrated what Tua has yet, but could have an even higher ceiling, and isn’t a high risk prospect. Tons of upside.

Love. Highest risk, but also a very high ceiling.

So, as long as the cost is the 5th pick in this draft, Herbert & Tua are about equal, if both are available, I probably roll with Tua, just because you’ve seen him display the characteristics you want to see, and Herbert you haven’t Yet, but doens’t mean he can’t.

However, if the cost is our 5th round pick plus one of our other 1st round picks, plus other picks either this year or next, then with the risk vs other option with Herbert, I don’t think that price is a good deal for us.

But as you say, if FO doesn’t believe in Herbert, then maybe you trade up for your guy if you are worried, although the same points that hold true for our evaluation hold true for the evaluations behind us, so who is going to trade up in front of us?

Also, smoke screens. Who knows what teams really think this time of year, but My point is these prospects might be closer rated than you think when you evaluate it as I‘Ve stated above? Just applying critical logic, it means nothing and is only opinion, but fun to consider?
I rather risk the uncertainty of Tua's health over the uncertainty of those other guys being able to raise their level of play.
 

fansinceGWilson

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Plan B is what happens when it's out of your hands. Plan A is doing what you can to get your QB. Many fans want to let other teams dictate to who Miami has left to pick from.
Sorry, I'm a little slow. If Miami tries to trade up and no team wants to trade, is that "out of your hands" or letting "other teams dictate?"
 

Etrius24

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Sorry, I'm a little slow. If Miami tries to trade up and no team wants to trade, is that "out of your hands" or letting "other teams dictate?"
Exactly correct

The Redskins could draft Tua... The asking price from the Lions could be three first round picks to trade up.... Another team could call the Lions and promise to beat our offer no matter what. So many scenarios where the Dolphins do not end up with Tua despite wanting him and trying to make it happen
 

rickd13

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Sorry, I'm a little slow. If Miami tries to trade up and no team wants to trade, is that "out of your hands" or letting "other teams dictate?"
Of course that's out of your hands. I would really have a hard time believing that a franchise wouldn't have these QBs ranked in some type of order. If Miami has Tua as their number one ranked QB, then should do what they can to go get him. Many on here are advocating just sitting where you are and taking what is left at QB as if they are all considered equal prospects.
 

Avigatorx

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Sorry, I'm a little slow. If Miami tries to trade up and no team wants to trade, is that "out of your hands" or letting "other teams dictate?"
If those teams want to stand pat and take our guy, then it is out of our hands.

If they are willing to trade and we get outbid by another team then we are letting other teams dictate.
 

rickd13

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Exactly correct

The Redskins could draft Tua... The asking price from the Lions could be three first round picks to trade up.... Another team could call the Lions and promise to beat our offer no matter what. So many scenarios where the Dolphins do not end up with Tua despite wanting him and trying to make it happen
Why is this so hard for so many to grasp the point I was making? If the Redskins decide they want Tua, of course there is nothing Miami can do about that. It would be out of their hands at that point and it's time to move on to plan B. But if he is their guy, they should make the move up to get him, not just sit there and hope he falls to you. This isn't hard to understand. Many on here want to just sit there at #5 and hope it works out and think oh well there are four QBs and Miami will get one of them as if they are all equal.
 

marino13zach54

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If those teams want to stand pat and take our guy, then it is out of our hands.

If they are willing to trade and we get outbid by another team then we are letting other teams dictate.
Using the same logic, if we have a set offer planned and then we are forced to overbid due to another team's offer, we are letting other teams dictate.

Willing to trade shouldn't equal willing to out-trade.
 

Avigatorx

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Using the same logic, if we have a set offer planned and then we are forced to overbid due to another team's offer, we are letting other teams dictate.

Willing to trade shouldn't equal willing to out-trade.
They can dictate the cost, but I dont want them dictating the player.
 

Mach2

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Of course that's out of your hands. I would really have a hard time believing that a franchise wouldn't have these QBs ranked in some type of order. If Miami has Tua as their number one ranked QB, then should do what they can to go get him. Many on here are advocating just sitting where you are and taking what is left at QB as if they are all considered equal prospects.
That is oversimplification because of the "elephant in the room", AKA Tua's injury propensity.

You can downplay it, or ignore it if you want, as a fan, but there is no GM in the league who doesn't give it some degree of weight, even if they have a "healthy" Tua as rated #1.

Many on here believe that there is no question that TT will absolutely have the best career of any QB in this draft. That is not a given either, and saying it is, is just willful ignorance of history. There are no sure things. TT is not the only QB in this draft that could end up being "elite", whatever definition you care to use for that undefinable term.
 

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marino13zach54

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