In the last 48 games we have had 14 large losses (lose by more than 7) and 12 large wins (win by more than 7).
My criteria for large losses and large wins is that one team didn't have a valid chance at winning late in the game.
The other 22 games were decided by 7 or fewer points and were up for grabs for either team to win.
Our record in those 22 close games is 11-11.
Close Game break down.
Ryan and the offense have had 5 game winning drives (SEA 12, ATL 13, PIT 13, NE 13, JETS 14) and have failed 5 times (IND 12, BUF 12, BALT 13, TB 13, DEN 14) while trailing by less than 6 with 1 ½ to 4 minutes remaining in game. (5 of 10) Ryan and the offense also had 2 other 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter comebacks (CIN 13, MIN 14) where we ended up winning the game (safety) after the offense tied the game while trailing late. There was also another 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter comeback to tie game (JETS 12) that we ended up losing in OT due to missed FG. So I am counting 13 of these 22 close games we were trailing late and the offense tied or took the lead 8 of 13 times. That seems like a pretty good rate when trailing. (61.5% success rate)
The problem for the offense comes when we are ahead and we need to close out the game and run out the clock. In the last 3 years we have had the ball and small lead with 3-4 minutes to play 10 times. 9 times we have given the ball back to the opponents and depended on the defense (ARZ 12, CIN 12, STL 12, BUF 13, SD 13, CAR 13, PIT 13, GB 14, DET 14) and 1 time we increased the lead to 2 scores to win the game on offense (NE 14). 1 of 10 (10% success rate)
Over that same period the Defense was given a small lead with less than 6 minutes in the game and preserved the win 8 times (CIN 12, STL 12, IND 13, SD 13, PIT 13, NE 13, JETS 14, MIN 14) and failed 6 times. (ARZ 12, BUFF 13, CAR 13, GB 14, DET 14, DEN 14 (8 of 14) Defense also forced walk off safety in OT (CIN 13) to win the last close game. 9 of 15 (60% success rate)
We definitely need to get better in these close games if we are going to make the playoffs this year and do any damage. By the averages we are going to see another 7 of these close games next year and we need to have a winning record in these tight games to be successful IMO.
In comparison the Patriots were 5-1 in close games last year including the playoff win over Baltimore and the Super Bowl win over the Seahawks.
My criteria for large losses and large wins is that one team didn't have a valid chance at winning late in the game.
The other 22 games were decided by 7 or fewer points and were up for grabs for either team to win.
Our record in those 22 close games is 11-11.
Close Game break down.
Ryan and the offense have had 5 game winning drives (SEA 12, ATL 13, PIT 13, NE 13, JETS 14) and have failed 5 times (IND 12, BUF 12, BALT 13, TB 13, DEN 14) while trailing by less than 6 with 1 ½ to 4 minutes remaining in game. (5 of 10) Ryan and the offense also had 2 other 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter comebacks (CIN 13, MIN 14) where we ended up winning the game (safety) after the offense tied the game while trailing late. There was also another 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter comeback to tie game (JETS 12) that we ended up losing in OT due to missed FG. So I am counting 13 of these 22 close games we were trailing late and the offense tied or took the lead 8 of 13 times. That seems like a pretty good rate when trailing. (61.5% success rate)
The problem for the offense comes when we are ahead and we need to close out the game and run out the clock. In the last 3 years we have had the ball and small lead with 3-4 minutes to play 10 times. 9 times we have given the ball back to the opponents and depended on the defense (ARZ 12, CIN 12, STL 12, BUF 13, SD 13, CAR 13, PIT 13, GB 14, DET 14) and 1 time we increased the lead to 2 scores to win the game on offense (NE 14). 1 of 10 (10% success rate)
Over that same period the Defense was given a small lead with less than 6 minutes in the game and preserved the win 8 times (CIN 12, STL 12, IND 13, SD 13, PIT 13, NE 13, JETS 14, MIN 14) and failed 6 times. (ARZ 12, BUFF 13, CAR 13, GB 14, DET 14, DEN 14 (8 of 14) Defense also forced walk off safety in OT (CIN 13) to win the last close game. 9 of 15 (60% success rate)
We definitely need to get better in these close games if we are going to make the playoffs this year and do any damage. By the averages we are going to see another 7 of these close games next year and we need to have a winning record in these tight games to be successful IMO.
In comparison the Patriots were 5-1 in close games last year including the playoff win over Baltimore and the Super Bowl win over the Seahawks.
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