This will be a critical off-season. The Dolphins are highly likely to retain Grier and Flores and unless they hit an almost perfect off-season, then let's face it, next season will be lost as well with us firing them half way through the year.
Unfortunately, our front office seem to have certain habits which get them into trouble. Below is my list of all the things I think they need to AVOID doing:
1. Fixing things that don't need fixing. To me, the biggest error of the Grier era (and going back a long way before that). Grier loves to churn the roster. It is partly due to issue 2 below. But with training camp so limited it is very hard to integrate new players. Chemistry is everything, yet the Dolphins never develop any because we always churn the roster far too much. That is why we have so many bad starts. The Fins have multiple needs that probably cannot be addressed in one off-season - so it would seem to make sense to leave the things that are not a major problem alone. In this case, that means the D. Just leave it alone. Re-sign everyone, add a draft pick or two but stop dicking around. They are not the best in the league but certainly good enough to get us in the playoffs. In reality, Grier will churn half the starting defence just 'because' he thinks he can do better wheeling and dealing. He can't. The same D with another year together will be just fine. Same applies to Gesicki - re-sign him or tag him. End of. Grier is not just going to magically find someone better. He is fine, the rest of the TE's are fine, just leave it alone. Focus on the things that are utterly crap first.
2. Trying to be smarter than everyone else. This has been the culture in the Fins FO for decades, and Grier is a major offender. Hence the major reaches all over the draft. The FO needs to face reality - their ability to evaluate talent is below average so fixating on a player that other people don't rate is not a good plan. Make the obvious picks and stop messing around with the roster just for the sake of it. We need solid contributors more than we need to roll the dice looking for a franchise player.
3. Tweeners. A result of (2) above. Constantly drafting people who don't have a fixed position on the assumption that they are so clever they can pick someone who can play anywhere. The OL is the evidence that this approach DOES NOT WORK. If you want a LT, draft someone who actually plays that position and play them there. We constantly draft for 'versatility' and then spend the whole training camp trying to work out where everyone fits. OL is about chemistry. Draft guys who play the positions you need, set the OL at the start of camp and coach them to play together. If someone is injured, replace that position rather than shuffling the whole line. On D, we have the same issue. If you want a FS, draft one, don't draft a great 'athlete' with the delusion you can coach them to do what you want. Igbo being exhibit 1 here.
4. Stuck in the middle FA. The Fins used to go big on FAs and usually overpaid for the wrong person. Now, they seem to sit out the big picks, then panic and overpay for the third rate talent. A better strategy would be to go hard at whichever big name player you really want, but also go hard and early for the lower (eg second tier) talent to get them off the board before everyone else starts looking there. We allow the better second tier talent to go while we are 'playing it cool' and then overpay for what is left. We are not going to fix this team in FA - nobody every does. We need limited goals. Get OL help (seriously no point drafting more OL as we clearly can't do that) and maybe a WR. Then just stop.
5. Running back by committee. I still think the NFL is wrong in its valuation of RBs. The key to success in the NFL is to be COUNTER the trend - as Belichick says, if you want the same players everyone else wants, there is not enough talent to go around. Just because 80% of the NFL thinks that you should not spend high picks on a RB does not mean they are right. Go hard and high for a franchise back, then give him the ball constantly. RBs are perfectly capable of carrying 30 times a game - they always have been. If we think Duke is the solution, go with him. But choose a franchise back and go with it. Like, er, the Titans - you know, the #1 seeds.
6. Silly final cuts. Every year there seem to be inexplicable decisions in the final cut where players who have had a great camp are cut whilst gadget players are retained (only to be cut again later). Keep it simple - you perform you stay. We always seem to be trying to be too clever, cutting a high profile player 'just because' and keeping random guys for no apparent reason.
7. Guys with injuries. Why, oh why do we keep doing this? As Parcells said, the most important ability is availability.
I haven't mentioned QB. I honestly don't know what to do there. I have been a big Tua backer, but you can't deny the obvious problems. I think I would take a QB in the first round if someone good enough falls to us. Otherwise, it is veteran backup time (not Brissett obviously) and one more year.
However, I confidently predict that the Dolphins will do all of the above. But hey, they are the experts. It shows, obviously...!
Unfortunately, our front office seem to have certain habits which get them into trouble. Below is my list of all the things I think they need to AVOID doing:
1. Fixing things that don't need fixing. To me, the biggest error of the Grier era (and going back a long way before that). Grier loves to churn the roster. It is partly due to issue 2 below. But with training camp so limited it is very hard to integrate new players. Chemistry is everything, yet the Dolphins never develop any because we always churn the roster far too much. That is why we have so many bad starts. The Fins have multiple needs that probably cannot be addressed in one off-season - so it would seem to make sense to leave the things that are not a major problem alone. In this case, that means the D. Just leave it alone. Re-sign everyone, add a draft pick or two but stop dicking around. They are not the best in the league but certainly good enough to get us in the playoffs. In reality, Grier will churn half the starting defence just 'because' he thinks he can do better wheeling and dealing. He can't. The same D with another year together will be just fine. Same applies to Gesicki - re-sign him or tag him. End of. Grier is not just going to magically find someone better. He is fine, the rest of the TE's are fine, just leave it alone. Focus on the things that are utterly crap first.
2. Trying to be smarter than everyone else. This has been the culture in the Fins FO for decades, and Grier is a major offender. Hence the major reaches all over the draft. The FO needs to face reality - their ability to evaluate talent is below average so fixating on a player that other people don't rate is not a good plan. Make the obvious picks and stop messing around with the roster just for the sake of it. We need solid contributors more than we need to roll the dice looking for a franchise player.
3. Tweeners. A result of (2) above. Constantly drafting people who don't have a fixed position on the assumption that they are so clever they can pick someone who can play anywhere. The OL is the evidence that this approach DOES NOT WORK. If you want a LT, draft someone who actually plays that position and play them there. We constantly draft for 'versatility' and then spend the whole training camp trying to work out where everyone fits. OL is about chemistry. Draft guys who play the positions you need, set the OL at the start of camp and coach them to play together. If someone is injured, replace that position rather than shuffling the whole line. On D, we have the same issue. If you want a FS, draft one, don't draft a great 'athlete' with the delusion you can coach them to do what you want. Igbo being exhibit 1 here.
4. Stuck in the middle FA. The Fins used to go big on FAs and usually overpaid for the wrong person. Now, they seem to sit out the big picks, then panic and overpay for the third rate talent. A better strategy would be to go hard at whichever big name player you really want, but also go hard and early for the lower (eg second tier) talent to get them off the board before everyone else starts looking there. We allow the better second tier talent to go while we are 'playing it cool' and then overpay for what is left. We are not going to fix this team in FA - nobody every does. We need limited goals. Get OL help (seriously no point drafting more OL as we clearly can't do that) and maybe a WR. Then just stop.
5. Running back by committee. I still think the NFL is wrong in its valuation of RBs. The key to success in the NFL is to be COUNTER the trend - as Belichick says, if you want the same players everyone else wants, there is not enough talent to go around. Just because 80% of the NFL thinks that you should not spend high picks on a RB does not mean they are right. Go hard and high for a franchise back, then give him the ball constantly. RBs are perfectly capable of carrying 30 times a game - they always have been. If we think Duke is the solution, go with him. But choose a franchise back and go with it. Like, er, the Titans - you know, the #1 seeds.
6. Silly final cuts. Every year there seem to be inexplicable decisions in the final cut where players who have had a great camp are cut whilst gadget players are retained (only to be cut again later). Keep it simple - you perform you stay. We always seem to be trying to be too clever, cutting a high profile player 'just because' and keeping random guys for no apparent reason.
7. Guys with injuries. Why, oh why do we keep doing this? As Parcells said, the most important ability is availability.
I haven't mentioned QB. I honestly don't know what to do there. I have been a big Tua backer, but you can't deny the obvious problems. I think I would take a QB in the first round if someone good enough falls to us. Otherwise, it is veteran backup time (not Brissett obviously) and one more year.
However, I confidently predict that the Dolphins will do all of the above. But hey, they are the experts. It shows, obviously...!
