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Moving Forward: The WRs

Feverdream

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This is a TOUGH group to analyze. On the one hand, Hill and Waddle are both elite at what they do, and having two solid starters should be viewed as quite a coup, but...

Let's take a quick look at who we have and their contract status.

Tyreek Hill: 31 years old. His contract is basically year by year as the 2026 base number implies that he'd be renegotiated or released before he'd get the 30M that his contract specifies. Seems to want a trade, but with his contract status, most touts think he'd only fetch maybe a 4th round pick or so. Short timer.
Jaylen Waddle: 27, signed through 2028.

Malik Washington: 24, signed through 2027
Tahj Washington: 24, signed through 2027
Erik Ezukanma: 25, Restricted Free Agent at end of year

So, the cupboard isn't bare exactly. Waddle is borderline pro bowl material; Malik looked like a long term keep as a slot receiver (he's 5'8", so don't expect more than that); Tahj was stashed on IR for the year, so the team liked something there, and Ezukanma might surprise (you'll notice that he's only a year older than the Washingtons).

But it's a flawed group. They are ALL small except for EE (who has ONE total reception and 5 jet sweeps to his name). Sure, I guess EE could finally do something this year, but who is going to bet on that? We cut him for River Cracraft last year, a 30-year-old guy with 32 lifetime NFL receptions.

Most teams carry 5-6 WRs on their roster, and we have... squinting... maybe 4, and that assumes that we don't move Hill for that 4th round pick in the 2026 draft. Clearly, we need a possession receiver to go with this group. When Hill and Waddle are healthy (semi-rarely btw), they are elite slot (Y) and deep threat (Z) WRs, but neither will bully a cornerback, catch a sideline pass, or block much. They are great players at what they do, don't get me wrong, but there is an awful lot that they DON'T do, and when you add in the fact that both of them were injured late in 2023 and 2024, you can't count on them throughout the cold weather part of the season.

Malik, at 5'8" was drafted to back up the twins. He's the same type of receiver and he'll probably become Waddle's running mate when Tyreek is TyGone. Tahj is 5'10" and is another Y/Z type of guy, and that assumes that he steps forward this year in camp. Considering his draft status, we'd probably be happy if he became a depth receiver and punt returner.

So, yes... we will probably draft a WR this year. Oh, I don't think we'll double dip like we did last year, but we have a GAPING hole at the X position. Most teams have a player to whom the QB can throw a third read pass when his pocket is collapsing. Tall (I hate the idea of this term, but I'll use it) 'contested catch' WRs thrive in these situations... and the red zone. You say you hate to see us throw a fade in the endzone? Guess what, 6'3" works way better than 5'10" in these situations, and one of the reasons that it doesn't work for us is that we have all blue receiving squad (I hate it when they sing).

It looks even worse when you consider that Hill is likely gone NEXT year, even if he isn't gone this year. He's aging, his progressively more injured, and well... he's a royal pain in the ass.

So... We need something... someone, and let's be honest, FA WRs cost a lot... and generally, perform poorly. We'll likely sign one or two, but they won't even be guaranteed to make it through camp (sort of like River Cracraft). And as far as a one-year Band-Aid, goes, how much are we willing to spend on a guy who'd likely become no better than 4th or 5th on the team in targets. Hell, we saw this last year when we signed OBJ-- after Waddle, Hill, Jonnu, and Washington, there just aren't a lot of targets left... but the targets are of a specific sort, the sideline, end-zone, and late reads that the others aren't really capable of doing very often.

So... who will we draft and in which round will we bite?
 
I think you see them go after another top tier TE. Lean into the current setup then draft a new receiver early in 2026 with your extra ammo from T Hill trade
 
Tua doesn’t need much more than what we have, get him a real tight end and better talent on the Oline and reset the offense.

Now if we get rid of Tyreek then all bets are off in the draft.

The Bech kid looks like a nice complimentary Piece to waddle.

If we do trade Hill then selecting Warren for sure at 13.
 
It's why Brian Thomas Jr was the right pick last year.

All kinds of defensive line/edge options this year...
Chop was 100% the right pick last year. No Chubb, Phillips in huge doubt, Ogbah was iffy. This year they need to address the WR issue. Personally, if McMillan fell to 13, then I would be happy to grab him. But I still believe that IOL/IDL is a bigger need, and I don't expect McMillan to be available.

This year the WR crop is pretty damn good. I hope Miami grab at least 2 big WR in the draft.
 
It's why Brian Thomas Jr was the right pick last year.

All kinds of defensive line/edge options this year...
That is one of the players I wanted as well. Either him or Graham Barton I would have been fine with. He would have brought much needed size to the WR position that they currently don't have.
 
Imo at WR (and TE), Miami should be looking for guys who are tough/strong before, during, and after the catch.

The WR's who best fit that description are:

Emeka Egbuka - of the potential Day 1 or Day 2 WR's, Egbuka is the best blocker
Tre Harris - true X, gets open, makes contested catches, makes plays after the catch. Health is the only significant question
Jalen Royals - strong (210 lbs), dynamic, probably a Z ideally, but he can play X

Egbuka's contested catch rate is just (like less than 1%) less than McMillan's, and Harris's is just (over 1%) better than McMillan's. Royals is still within range here but not as close (6-7% less).

There are other WR's that would fit in Miami and complement what they have, but these are the three that most clearly fit what they need.
 
I’m hoping we draft an X receiver like GadsdenII and not trade for anyone unless it’s on a vet min deal. Didn’t we learn our lesson with OBJ? I would also trade Hill, even if it’s for a 3rd or 4th rounder if someone would take his contract.
 
Where we sit right now, if i was making the pick, McMillan would be our first round selection if he slides. I've seen alot of mocks where we falls to #13.

As a huge fan of Mike Evans, I see enough traits carry over to Tet McMillan.

He doesn't "fit" with what this regime has historally done, so it's probably another butterfly wing that gets ripped off becuase Grier is still in the building and will be another name we can add to the list of "what if's?" But i don't think there is another 1st rounder we can select, that will have an impact, long term, like McMillan will.
 
This is a TOUGH group to analyze. On the one hand, Hill and Waddle are both elite at what they do, and having two solid starters should be viewed as quite a coup, but...

Let's take a quick look at who we have and their contract status.

Tyreek Hill: 31 years old. His contract is basically year by year as the 2026 base number implies that he'd be renegotiated or released before he'd get the 30M that his contract specifies. Seems to want a trade, but with his contract status, most touts think he'd only fetch maybe a 4th round pick or so. Short timer.
Jaylen Waddle: 27, signed through 2028.

Malik Washington: 24, signed through 2027
Tahj Washington: 24, signed through 2027
Erik Ezukanma: 25, Restricted Free Agent at end of year

So, the cupboard isn't bare exactly. Waddle is borderline pro bowl material; Malik looked like a long term keep as a slot receiver (he's 5'8", so don't expect more than that); Tahj was stashed on IR for the year, so the team liked something there, and Ezukanma might surprise (you'll notice that he's only a year older than the Washingtons).

But it's a flawed group. They are ALL small except for EE (who has ONE total reception and 5 jet sweeps to his name). Sure, I guess EE could finally do something this year, but who is going to bet on that? We cut him for River Cracraft last year, a 30-year-old guy with 32 lifetime NFL receptions.

Most teams carry 5-6 WRs on their roster, and we have... squinting... maybe 4, and that assumes that we don't move Hill for that 4th round pick in the 2026 draft. Clearly, we need a possession receiver to go with this group. When Hill and Waddle are healthy (semi-rarely btw), they are elite slot (Y) and deep threat (Z) WRs, but neither will bully a cornerback, catch a sideline pass, or block much. They are great players at what they do, don't get me wrong, but there is an awful lot that they DON'T do, and when you add in the fact that both of them were injured late in 2023 and 2024, you can't count on them throughout the cold weather part of the season.

Malik, at 5'8" was drafted to back up the twins. He's the same type of receiver and he'll probably become Waddle's running mate when Tyreek is TyGone. Tahj is 5'10" and is another Y/Z type of guy, and that assumes that he steps forward this year in camp. Considering his draft status, we'd probably be happy if he became a depth receiver and punt returner.

So, yes... we will probably draft a WR this year. Oh, I don't think we'll double dip like we did last year, but we have a GAPING hole at the X position. Most teams have a player to whom the QB can throw a third read pass when his pocket is collapsing. Tall (I hate the idea of this term, but I'll use it) 'contested catch' WRs thrive in these situations... and the red zone. You say you hate to see us throw a fade in the endzone? Guess what, 6'3" works way better than 5'10" in these situations, and one of the reasons that it doesn't work for us is that we have all blue receiving squad (I hate it when they sing).

It looks even worse when you consider that Hill is likely gone NEXT year, even if he isn't gone this year. He's aging, his progressively more injured, and well... he's a royal pain in the ass.

So... We need something... someone, and let's be honest, FA WRs cost a lot... and generally, perform poorly. We'll likely sign one or two, but they won't even be guaranteed to make it through camp (sort of like River Cracraft). And as far as a one-year Band-Aid, goes, how much are we willing to spend on a guy who'd likely become no better than 4th or 5th on the team in targets. Hell, we saw this last year when we signed OBJ-- after Waddle, Hill, Jonnu, and Washington, there just aren't a lot of targets left... but the targets are of a specific sort, the sideline, end-zone, and late reads that the others aren't really capable of doing very often.

So... who will we draft and in which round will we bite?

The smart play, imo, is drafting Tyler Warren in the first and/or Gadsden in the 3rd. I do not think Hill will be on the team after June, leaving Waddle and Malik as the primary options. That's just not gonna cut it. I do not believe either Tahj Washington or Erik Ezukanma are reliable options moving forward. We can hope for it, but hope isn't a plan.
 
Personally, I'm ready for the next phase of this offense. I'm hoping we feature Waddle, Washington & J-Smith along with a new WR.

The one thing I know we have is a QB who always makes his weapons look better than they really are. Every person who's played with Tua has had a career year. That's just a fact with Tua. Whoever we plug in will be productive so it's better to be clever than to force the issue.

I won't be crushed if Tyreek returns in '25 because in theory, if he's able to return to full strength he might return to form, once again being a guy worthy of 160+ targets per season.

The problem for us is that we associate WR production with R1 picks and that's not healthy. If you can't find productive WRs in rounds 2-5 you're just not drafting well enough because it's a deep position and it's not a functionally difficult thing to do, running to a spot and catching a ball. Remember, Tyreek himself was taken in R5 and there are tons of others across the league producing really well who were taken in R2 and beyond.
 
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Personally, I'm ready for the next phase of this offense. I'm hoping we feature Waddle, Washington & J-Smith along with a new WR.

The one thing I know we have is a QB who always makes his weapons look better than they really are. Every person who's played with Tua has had a career year. That's just a fact with Tua. Whoever we plug in will be productive so it's better to be clever than to force the issue.

I won't be crushed if Tyreek returns in '25 because in theory, if he's able to return to full strength he might return to form, once again being a guy worthy of 160+ targets per season.

The problem for us is that we associate WR production with R1 picks and that's not healthy. If you can't find productive WRs in rounds 2-5 you're just not drafting well enough because it's a deep position and it's not a functionally difficult thing to do running to a spot and catching a ball.

I like the Iowa State kid, Jayden Higgins as a potential 3rd rounder. Just can't see him making it to 98 and I don't think we can use 48 on a WR.
 
I like the Iowa State kid, Jayden Higgins as a potential 3rd rounder. Just can't see him making it to 98 and I don't think we can use 48 on a WR.

I can't speak for the prospect in question but I'd agree that we're probably not taking WR at #13 or #48.

Those TBDs in R3-R4 look pretty enticing though.

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