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Derek Hagan – I did not feel that WR was the primary need for this team, but it certainly was a need. Marty Booker is a solid WR and Wes Welker is a nice slot receiver, but that is all he’ll ever be. Because WRs generally take a while to develop, you need to take them a year or 2 before you really need them.
What is striking about Hagan is his production in college, even in his freshman and sophomore years. Few, if any, WRs have been as productive for as long as Hagan at a major college program. He put up good numbers in limited opportunities (3 starts) as a true freshman (32 receptions for 405 yards) and by his sophomore year was a No. 1/go-to receiver, with 66 receptions for 1076 yards and 9 TDs. It is hard to think of anyone who put up 3 60-catch or 1,000 yard receiving years at a major college, but I theorized that, perhaps, guys who are so productive at WR early in their college careers may tend to have the kind of innate understanding of the position to enable them to do the same in the pros. Unfortunately, the guys I could think of who were impact WRs by their sophomore year in college have had a pretty spotty record early in their pro careers: Charles Rogers, Mike Williams, Rashaun Woods and Bobby Engram were a few who came to mind in recent years. Larry Fitzgerald also had early success in college and has proven to be a very good NFL receiver in a short period of time.
The knocks on Hagan seem to be: (1) he was horrible at the Senior Bowl and Combine receiving drills (not the physical tests); (2) he lacks the explosiveness necessary to be a deep threat in the NFL; and (3) his hands are suspect.
By all accounts, Hagan was indeed horrible at the Senior Bowl and in the Combine drills. What does that tell us? Not much, I suspect. The highly rated WR whose stocked really dropped in the post-season was Anquan Boldin. While part of Boldin’s problem was the physical testing, he also was said to have had major concentration lapses and a case of the dropsies in the pre-draft, post-season. Boldin, of course, has been extremely productive in the NFL from the very first game of his rookie season. I suspect (and hope) that Hagan’s post-season performances were an aberration. While it’s not often talked about, even pro (or nearly pro) athletes have bad days at the office. They may be caused by a number of personal factors, such as an illness in the family, a girlfriend breaking up with them, etc. I haven’t heard any of these excuses from Hagan, but you rarely do. Because Hagan showed pretty reliable hands over a 4 year college career, his post-season dropsies may well have been an aberration.
Regarding his explosiveness, this is a little puzzling. From the film I have seen (yes, they were highlights) he showed very good explosion out of his cuts. His physical measurables show excellent short-area quickness – his 1.50 second 10-yard split was among the best of WRs in this draft. His 40 time in the low-mid 4.4s is certainly respectable for a guy who is 6-2, 208 pounds. His short shuttle time of 4.07 was fourth best among WRs at the Combine, which also shows an ability to get into and out of breaks pretty quickly. I did not find any 3-cone drill times for Hagan, but they would have been interesting for evaluating his quickness and change of direction skills.
While Hagan’s nearly 16 yard average per reception is solid, it does not appear that he caught a lot of very long passes, i.e., 60 yards or more. His long catch in 2005 was 59 yards, followed by a 46 and a 45. Whether this was due to the system, the QBs or something else is unclear to me. While Hagan timed well at Indy, his speed over the last 30 yards of his 40 yard split was decent, but not elite. For example, Devin Aromadoshu covered those last 30 yards in 2.8 seconds, compared to 2.95 for Hagan. That is roughly a 1.5 yard difference at the end of that 40 yard run, which can be the difference between a big play and an incomplete pass. On a straight “go†route, a CB can limit the effect of the WR’s speed over the 1st 10 yards by starting with a bigger cushion. The guys who often turn out to be the “pure†deep threats are often the guys whose speed is concentrated in the “last 30 yards.†Of course, bigger cushions leave more room to work underneath and intermediate routes.
The “suspect hands†criticism does not appear to hold much water. You simply can’t catch more than 250 passes at the major college level if you have bad hands. Eventually they will stop throwing to you. To me, there is a distinction between “bad hands†and a tendency toward concentration lapses. After several years of playing organized football, it is not likely that a guys who has “bad hands†will be cured. Concentration lapses can, however, be controlled. As discussed above regarding his post-season performance, a lot of factors that are completely extraneous to football can cause a player to have a bag game or two. According to Russ Lande (GM Jr., who had Hagan rated as tied for the No. 1 receiver in the draft with Chad Jackson), Hagan caught 94% of the passes thrown to him. I have to think that is a misstatement, as it would take an unbelievably accurate QB to complete 94% of passes thrown to a particular receiver. Most NFL receivers catch between 45 and 65% of the passes thrown to them, which is consistent with the range of typical NFL QB completion percentages. Perhaps Lande meant to say that he caught 94% of the catchable balls thrown to him, i.e., he dropped 6%. A 6% drop rate is pretty solid, but not spectacular. It is, however, good enough to refute the suggestion that he has “suspect hands.â€Â
This was not a very strong WR draft. There were no WRs available when the Fins picked Hagan that were rated appreciably higher by a significant number of draft analysts and there were some who had Hagan rated as high as any receiver in the draft. By all accounts, he is a very hard worker. He also has a healthy dose of that No. 1 receiver ****iness/confidence that some people love and others hate. The reality is that even the biggest deep threats in the game catch only a handful of true deep passes each year. A WR’s bread-and-butter is still going to be between 0-20 yards from the LOS. To me, Hagan looks like a pretty safe pick to be at least a decent No. 2 receiver, with the potential to be a No. 1 down the road. He is at least as athletic as Boldin and Fitzgerald, so I don’t see athleticism as necessarily preventing him from reaching that level. While I see him as a solid, safe pick, I would have said the same thing about Charles Rogers, Mike Williams and Rashaun Woods and, while they are all still relatively young, none has yet met expectations.
What is striking about Hagan is his production in college, even in his freshman and sophomore years. Few, if any, WRs have been as productive for as long as Hagan at a major college program. He put up good numbers in limited opportunities (3 starts) as a true freshman (32 receptions for 405 yards) and by his sophomore year was a No. 1/go-to receiver, with 66 receptions for 1076 yards and 9 TDs. It is hard to think of anyone who put up 3 60-catch or 1,000 yard receiving years at a major college, but I theorized that, perhaps, guys who are so productive at WR early in their college careers may tend to have the kind of innate understanding of the position to enable them to do the same in the pros. Unfortunately, the guys I could think of who were impact WRs by their sophomore year in college have had a pretty spotty record early in their pro careers: Charles Rogers, Mike Williams, Rashaun Woods and Bobby Engram were a few who came to mind in recent years. Larry Fitzgerald also had early success in college and has proven to be a very good NFL receiver in a short period of time.
The knocks on Hagan seem to be: (1) he was horrible at the Senior Bowl and Combine receiving drills (not the physical tests); (2) he lacks the explosiveness necessary to be a deep threat in the NFL; and (3) his hands are suspect.
By all accounts, Hagan was indeed horrible at the Senior Bowl and in the Combine drills. What does that tell us? Not much, I suspect. The highly rated WR whose stocked really dropped in the post-season was Anquan Boldin. While part of Boldin’s problem was the physical testing, he also was said to have had major concentration lapses and a case of the dropsies in the pre-draft, post-season. Boldin, of course, has been extremely productive in the NFL from the very first game of his rookie season. I suspect (and hope) that Hagan’s post-season performances were an aberration. While it’s not often talked about, even pro (or nearly pro) athletes have bad days at the office. They may be caused by a number of personal factors, such as an illness in the family, a girlfriend breaking up with them, etc. I haven’t heard any of these excuses from Hagan, but you rarely do. Because Hagan showed pretty reliable hands over a 4 year college career, his post-season dropsies may well have been an aberration.
Regarding his explosiveness, this is a little puzzling. From the film I have seen (yes, they were highlights) he showed very good explosion out of his cuts. His physical measurables show excellent short-area quickness – his 1.50 second 10-yard split was among the best of WRs in this draft. His 40 time in the low-mid 4.4s is certainly respectable for a guy who is 6-2, 208 pounds. His short shuttle time of 4.07 was fourth best among WRs at the Combine, which also shows an ability to get into and out of breaks pretty quickly. I did not find any 3-cone drill times for Hagan, but they would have been interesting for evaluating his quickness and change of direction skills.
While Hagan’s nearly 16 yard average per reception is solid, it does not appear that he caught a lot of very long passes, i.e., 60 yards or more. His long catch in 2005 was 59 yards, followed by a 46 and a 45. Whether this was due to the system, the QBs or something else is unclear to me. While Hagan timed well at Indy, his speed over the last 30 yards of his 40 yard split was decent, but not elite. For example, Devin Aromadoshu covered those last 30 yards in 2.8 seconds, compared to 2.95 for Hagan. That is roughly a 1.5 yard difference at the end of that 40 yard run, which can be the difference between a big play and an incomplete pass. On a straight “go†route, a CB can limit the effect of the WR’s speed over the 1st 10 yards by starting with a bigger cushion. The guys who often turn out to be the “pure†deep threats are often the guys whose speed is concentrated in the “last 30 yards.†Of course, bigger cushions leave more room to work underneath and intermediate routes.
The “suspect hands†criticism does not appear to hold much water. You simply can’t catch more than 250 passes at the major college level if you have bad hands. Eventually they will stop throwing to you. To me, there is a distinction between “bad hands†and a tendency toward concentration lapses. After several years of playing organized football, it is not likely that a guys who has “bad hands†will be cured. Concentration lapses can, however, be controlled. As discussed above regarding his post-season performance, a lot of factors that are completely extraneous to football can cause a player to have a bag game or two. According to Russ Lande (GM Jr., who had Hagan rated as tied for the No. 1 receiver in the draft with Chad Jackson), Hagan caught 94% of the passes thrown to him. I have to think that is a misstatement, as it would take an unbelievably accurate QB to complete 94% of passes thrown to a particular receiver. Most NFL receivers catch between 45 and 65% of the passes thrown to them, which is consistent with the range of typical NFL QB completion percentages. Perhaps Lande meant to say that he caught 94% of the catchable balls thrown to him, i.e., he dropped 6%. A 6% drop rate is pretty solid, but not spectacular. It is, however, good enough to refute the suggestion that he has “suspect hands.â€Â
This was not a very strong WR draft. There were no WRs available when the Fins picked Hagan that were rated appreciably higher by a significant number of draft analysts and there were some who had Hagan rated as high as any receiver in the draft. By all accounts, he is a very hard worker. He also has a healthy dose of that No. 1 receiver ****iness/confidence that some people love and others hate. The reality is that even the biggest deep threats in the game catch only a handful of true deep passes each year. A WR’s bread-and-butter is still going to be between 0-20 yards from the LOS. To me, Hagan looks like a pretty safe pick to be at least a decent No. 2 receiver, with the potential to be a No. 1 down the road. He is at least as athletic as Boldin and Fitzgerald, so I don’t see athleticism as necessarily preventing him from reaching that level. While I see him as a solid, safe pick, I would have said the same thing about Charles Rogers, Mike Williams and Rashaun Woods and, while they are all still relatively young, none has yet met expectations.
