My Round 1 Top 5 scenario

NathanHunt

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Like many, I'm getting VERY excited about the draft. FINALLY, something to LOOK forward to on Draft Day. The PHINZ are finally PLAYERS on Day 1!

I'm in no way a guru. But, I do follow nearly every team. I tend to track players and needs for each team by hobby. Below is MY prediction of the Top 5. I know... GEE... that's a BIG prediction, :shakeno: . But, I think the Top 5 will really possess the most "stress" for jockeying among the elite prospects (considering the relative lack) by each NFL camp.

I believe the consensus that has been formed is there are 7 "elite" (by draft standards) prospects: 2 QBs, 2 WRs and 3 RBs. Considering the similarities of the 3 RBs, I have dubbed position 5 to be the last possible spot to allow for a team to "choose" their BPA within the 7.

I further believe the QB and WR prospects to be respectfully graded higher than their RB counterparts. Thus, I feel all 4 will be chosen in the Top 4. Leaving #5 with their choice of the 3 RBs. Based on all this. Here's my Top 5.

1) San Franscisco - QB Rogers. Local product stays in the Bay to resurrect the once proud organization.
2) Tampa Bay (from Miami) - QB Smith. Gruden finally picks "his" QB. With Griese providing veteran leadership and "holding down the fort" until Smith is ready to be worked into the system (see Bengals Kitna -> Palmer).
3) Minnesota (from Cleveland) - WR Williams. Cleveland has too many holes to fill with just one pick. Williams appear to have the same game changing pressence Randy Moss does.
4) Chicago - WR Edwards. Chicago does NOT need a RB. Thomas Jones proved plenty capable when the Bears COULD throw. Grossman returns after missing most of the season to reclaim the promising form he showed in the KC/STL system before injury. Jones was selected to be a Holmes/Faulk clone. Chicago will draft RB later for depth. But, not this high. They need a young WR to alleviate glaring needs.
5) Miami - RB Benson. Oh sure, this will draw heat. But, when selecting in the Top 5, you'd better be sure of the kid's athletic ability. I believe the "chicken or the egg" conversation between Williams/Brown will ultimately be left for another team to choose. In the Top 5, you cannot be "stretching" on what you have NOT seen. Benson HAS started. Benson did NOT compete for playing time as they did.

No matter who this person or that person believes is better between the Auburn backs, one adage keeps popping in my head "If you have 2 starters on your team (at QB/RB), you DON'T have ONE!" I ultimately believe the "unknown" factor will make Saban defer to the proven commodity. It's better to KNOW what you are getting, than not. Especially in the Top 5.

I know the Ricky haters will begin with their "it's Ricky Jr." talk, but Benson's accomplishments and HOW he accomlished them (average passing game and running against stacked defenses) cannot be denied. I'll take a known commodity against and unknown any day.

I also don't believe we will take a "project" QB very high. We already have taken a QB with this year's 2nd. It does not stand to reason to draft ANOTHER QB in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd round IF you trade down. If we were truly concerned with a QB, we would stick @ #2 and take Smith. I believe this is Feeley's chance and Saban wants to have NO doubts when making this decision. He will grade Feeley for himself this year. IF he is not the guy, we will address QB next year.
 

Buddwalk

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I'm pretty confident chicago will take benson and we'll be left with either brown or edwards
 
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