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My Six Points

ckparrothead

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1. We saw the value of Ricky & Ronnie today, but we'll see it more next week. Any given game, if your OL is blocking well and you've found a way to consistently run a ball on a defense, you can end up with 188 yard on 40 carries. That can happen any given Sunday. Cadillac could have done it, a number of premier tailbacks could have done. Heck, Lamar Smith did it for us in the playoffs after the 2000 season. The true question is, how many premier tailbacks could come back the next week and give a similar performance after getting such a hefty workload? The answer, not many tailbacks in the game could shoulder a 35+ to 40 carry workload, come back and do it again the very next week. Not LaDainian Tomlinson IMO, maybe Shaun Alexander though...I don't know. Either way, not many backs are able to follow-up that kind of performance with another one like it. Cadillac ended up with a busted wheel and 4 weeks of sittin on his arse after a performance like that. The value of Ricky & Ronnie is the lack of limitations. If we're running the ball well, and our defense isn't letting the game get away from us, then we can keep running that ball until we pulverize the other team and we'll never have to worry about having fresh backs the next week to shoulder the load once again. Last week I tried to point out that Ricky's presence was helping us, rather than hindering us as people thought. Today, I believe we saw the value of Ricky's presence in BOTH runner's performances.

2. Gus Frerotte really has to go. I believed that Sage should have started the second half of the game. Then, when we get the ball on NO's 41 yard line, we went 3-and-out gaining only 2 yards to start the second half, and I said it again...Sage needs to come in. Then, when Gus fumbled the ball on the very next drive, I said it again. Gus must go. Then, another drive, another 3-and-out, and I'm starting to get ready to throw things at this expensive big screen TV at the bar. After that, Saban's patience finally pays off: I'm sitting there saying to myself on 3rd down out of the shotgun, there's no way Gus makes this throw to convert, he's just been too inaccurate all damn day. Sure enough, he throws it right to Chambers in the end zone. So, Saban was much more patient than I, and I believe we probably came out on top because of Saban's patience. But, I will say this: despite the TD that put the game out of reach, we ran the ball 40 times for 188 yards, the defense was 11 for 11 on 3rd down, yet we only scored one touchdown and four field goals. Why is that? Because of Gus Frerotte's inaccurate passes, PERIOD. He had open receivers constantly. He just missed them, and missed them often. I'm not sure there was a single drive that ended in a field goal where there wasn't a Gus Frerotte inaccurate pass that forced us to settle for the FG instead of the TD. How much of a free pass is this guy going to get? I understand that he truly did beat AJ Feeley for the job, I never questioned that much...but Sage Rosenfels beat both of them in the preseason, and now if he's not getting the chance to unseat Gus I just say that Saban is a damn gun-shy chicken.

3. New Orleans is bad, and we should have beaten them. We did beat them, so we took a big step today...a step that I can honestly say began weeks ago when we lost to the Buccaneers, and then continued when we lost to the Chiefs. We went 2-2 over the first quarter of the season, playing the 6-2 Broncos, the 2-5 Jets, the 5-2 Panthers, and the 3-5 Bills. Which teams SHOULD we have beaten, and which teams SHOULD we have lost to? Yeah, obvious. But instead we beat the strong teams and lost to the weak ones. That is the sign of a bad team, actually. It's not the sign of a good team at all. A good team starts by beating the teams it is supposed to beat, and loses to the teams they are supposed to lose to. Thats when you have a workable slab of clay that you can try and mold into a winner. You'll never get much traction in your teachings while you are a team that beats the teams you're not supposed to and loses to the teams you're not supposed to lose to. I have been saying it for a while now, we're going to end up 8-8, maybe 7-9 at the worst, but also possibly 10-6 depending on the outcome of a few wildcard patriots matchups. I am still holding to that prediction, tho I may change my mind if Saban doesn't bench Frerotte soon.

4. Wes Welker is the most consistent WR on this team, but Chris Chambers is the most spectacular. It has never been more clear to me that Welker should have more balls thrown his way than either Chambers or Booker. That doesn't mean we have to start him. If he's best left in the slot, fine leave him in the slot. But he was always open today, and open against McKenzie, their best CB. This isn't a criticism of Chambers at all, but I believe when it comes to deciding how many balls should be thrown where, at least as many should be thrown at Wes as to Chambers or Booker. He is a chain mover, and he is peaking. When you've watched the NFL for a while, and if you are very observant, you get to recognize the signs of a guy who is peaking as a WR. Some guys are able to maintain that peak performance for years. Wes is peaking. Chambers is not. Neither is Booker.

5. Congratulations Reggie Howard. He had a mixed day at best, but that was still a great interception, something that I saw he was certainly capable of in the preseason.

6. Is Travis Daniels this good? He's gone like 7 games now without having his name put in the doghouse as a corner by allowing a big play, or series of big plays. He's not getting picks, but he's not getting picked ON either.


Extra Point: We need to start figuring out a way to keep Vonnie Holliday around here for more than just one year. I believe he's on one of those two year deals where the second year is never meant to be played. He doesn't deserve a deal like Carter's but this is just a guy that FITS. Congrats to Saban for finding three guys in Carter, Traylor, and Holliday that just plain FIT this D like a glove. That's what NE has done so well in the past.
 
The best cornerbacks are the ones you never hear about during a game.
 
While it was a good win and I truly enjoyed it,...I'm a bit hesitant and want to see some consistency before I change my prediction of 6-10 at best.
 
I understand the hesitancy. I honestly would take it almost as a better sign if we lose to the Falcons this week than if we beat them. If the Dolphins insert Sage into the lineup at QB, and the Falcons play well but the Dolphins just play better, then I would be very optimistic indeed about this season. If we win because the Falcons play poorly, I'm not going to be too happy because it could mean the team regresses to losing against teams they should beat.
 
agree about Sage, T. Daniels, and Reggie Howard.As for the D-Line, Holliday has been good, Traylor amazing, but in my book Carter has been a big disappointment for his $5 Mill cap number-money better spent to...I dont know, keep Surtain? Sammy Knight even? Pick up a decent O-lineman in FA? even with his safety today (V Holliday's play all the way, the old man is clearly on his last legs-sad to see him go out as a slug-he was a bada$$ for many years
 
ckparrothead said:
I understand the hesitancy. I honestly would take it almost as a better sign if we lose to the Falcons this week than if we beat them. If the Dolphins insert Sage into the lineup at QB, and the Falcons play well but the Dolphins just play better, then I would be very optimistic indeed about this season. If we win because the Falcons play poorly, I'm not going to be too happy because it could mean the team regresses to losing against teams they should beat.

I actually don't agree with the notion that a team that wins the games that it's supposed to win and loses the hard ones is better. Take for example the Oakland A's. They win the easy games, but can't win worth a damn in the playoffs against better teams. Beating the hard teams shows potential which is better in my opinion, than a team that just has consistent average players.

Regardless you need both to win...

As for Daniels, yes he's an impressive rookie but even when Poole and Mitchell get back next season we'll need another CB.
 
I'm not saying that a team that loses to GOOD teams and wins against BAD teams is a good team.

I'm saying a team that loses to the teams they SHOULD lose to, and beats the teams they SHOULD beat, is a much better start and a team that is closer to working its way toward a championship than to a team that loses to teams they shouldn't lose to and beats teams they shouldn't beat.

Notice I say should and shouldn't, rather than loses to bad teams and beats good teams. Big difference. What I would say to you is you have to learn to crawl before you walk, before you run. Build from the foundations up.
 
1. I totally agree. Ronnie & Ricky are going to get better and better as this year moves forward. Today's performance in the running game was great. If the O-line keeps making the holes, our running game will be top-notch.

2. Once again, I agree. Frerotte has no staying power. It is only about halfway through the season and he is already burnt out. He looks slow. He is missing receivers still, and does not step up to avoid the rush well at all. I truly believe Sage will get in there at some point.

3. I disagree with this one. Miami is under a new coaching staff this year. They are still working out the kinks. When they get the gameplan right and execute it, they can beat some of the best teams out there. That is what the Denver and Carolina games tell us. The Jets and Bills games tell us that Miami can get it wrong too. They can beat themselves by making too many mistakes. I am seeing less mistakes now though. They are making improvements.

4. Wes Welker is a great addition to the offense. I completely agree. And I think he should stay in the slot. It is working very well that way. However, Welker can't be overused. That is my only concern. He in MUCH needed in special teams. His kick/punt returns are CRITICAL to good field position. I've noticed that he doesn't return as well when he is getting too involved as a WR. I can see Welker being a good 3rd down receiver to move the chains, like you said.

5. Reggie Howard made some strides in the right direction this week. Very good to see.

6. Daniels is playing well too. He is playing quite a bit for a rookie and doing a really good job.

Extra Point: All good aquisitions. I would like to see Holiday return for another season as well. What about Zgonina? I know he wasn't picked up just this year. But I wanted to give him some love. He fits in nicely with those guys. He has been knocking down passes all year and had two sacks today. If only he had an easier name to say... :D
 
mcteems said:
1. I totally agree. Ronnie & Ricky are going to get better and better as this year moves forward. Today's performance in the running game was great. If the O-line keeps making the holes, our running game will be top-notch.

2. Once again, I agree. Frerotte has no staying power. It is only about halfway through the season and he is already burnt out. He looks slow. He is missing receivers still, and does not step up to avoid the rush well at all. I truly believe Sage will get in there at some point.

3. I disagree with this one. Miami is under a new coaching staff this year. They are still working out the kinks. When they get the gameplan right and execute it, they can beat some of the best teams out there. That is what the Denver and Carolina games tell us. The Jets and Bills games tell us that Miami can get it wrong too. They can beat themselves by making too many mistakes. I am seeing less mistakes now though. They are making improvements.

4. Wes Welker is a great addition to the offense. I completely agree. And I think he should stay in the slot. It is working very well that way. However, Welker can't be overused. That is my only concern. He in MUCH needed in special teams. His kick/punt returns are CRITICAL to good field position. I've noticed that he doesn't return as well when he is getting too involved as a WR. I can see Welker being a good 3rd down receiver to move the chains, like you said.

5. Reggie Howard made some strides in the right direction this week. Very good to see.

6. Daniels is playing well too. He is playing quite a bit for a rookie and doing a really good job.

Extra Point: All good aquisitions. I would like to see Holiday return for another season as well. What about Zgonina? I know he wasn't picked up just this year. But I wanted to give him some love. He fits in nicely with those guys. He has been knocking down passes all year and had two sacks today. If only he had an easier name to say... :D


1. I think you missed my point. My point was we'll see the true value of R&R next week when we're able to continue to run the ball 30+ times without a big dropoff in performance due to exhaustion. There aren't many teams out there that truly have that luxury (the Broncos, Chiefs, maybe Panthers).

2. I'm never going to question Gus' pocket presence. This OL has not blocked nearly as well as their pass protecting reputation says they have at the moment, and it is because Gus gets rid of the ball rather than taking the sack. His pocket presence is phenomenal. But, you shouldn't miss the throws he's missing is the bottom line to me. I reviewed Marcus Vick against BC not too long ago. On one deep sideline pass where people were like wow what a pass from Vick, my observation was "guy was college open, was a college throw, with a college result...you're expected to make that throw 9 times out of 10 in the NFL if your guy gets that open in that situation." Well, I watched the Chiefs game some time after that, and on that exact same kind of play down the right sideline a streaking WR beat the short zone corner coverage and the safety was late in getting over, resulting in a hole to drop the ball in, Frerotte throws it up, and misses is. THe exact same throw that I just discounted Marcus Vick for, saying it is not indicative of an NFL throw because in the NFL you're expected to make it 9 times out of 10, and Gus Frerotte just missed it. Well, that says it all. Everything we saw today in New Orleans was the same thing: inaccurate ball placement.

3. You have to learn to crawl before you walk, and walk before you run. You don't become an "overachieving" team (as Saban himself has said he wants us to be) by beatnig the teams you shouldn't beat then turning around and losing to teams you shouldn't lose to. We beat the Broncos and Panthers, turned around and lost to the Bills and Jets. The first two go hand in hand with the latter two. We needed to do things differently, and in our case it meant tearing down before building back up. IMO, the Bucs and Chiefs losses were entirely necessary...and a Falcons loss next week may also be necessary to drive home the point that we're still not the team we need to be yet.

4. That is an excellent point. His special teams ability is invaluable right now. What I would say to that is, you can find all kinds of guys who can do close to what he does on STs. You can't find many who can do what he does on offense. We need to start cycling through STs guys and finding our next viable PR/KR. I'm not convinced the slot is his only effective position. So far, he's done everything we've asked him to do, and done it well. It would be a mistake to just predict that would end when/if we tried him on the outside. If he's constantly accomplishing every task put before him, eventually you may have to come to grips with the fact that he's doing that because he's actually very, very good. And I'm talking Hines Ward good.

5, 6, and XP...good signs, hope they all look good against offenses that dont have as much a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot. Zgon is an overachiever, I love him to death, but he's getting older.
 
ckparrothead said:
I'm not saying that a team that loses to GOOD teams and wins against BAD teams is a good team.

I'm saying a team that loses to the teams they SHOULD lose to, and beats the teams they SHOULD beat, is a much better start and a team that is closer to working its way toward a championship than to a team that loses to teams they shouldn't lose to and beats teams they shouldn't beat.

Notice I say should and shouldn't, rather than loses to bad teams and beats good teams. Big difference. What I would say to you is you have to learn to crawl before you walk, before you run. Build from the foundations up.

I respect your analogy however, I'll give you another example. The 02 and the 03 Dolphins. 02 the Dolphins went 9-7 and beat several contenders yet lost some very stupid games. That year they could have beat both SB contenders. After that season they looked to fix their mistake and the off-season looked bright.

In 03 however the team went 10-6, yet lost its big matchups to the better teams. That team couldn't have beat the Patriots or the Panthers.
 
To further the point about sharing carries and how it enables us to rush as many times as we want without heed to exhausting anyone...

I'm saying that any given day like today, we got 40 carries for 188 yards. Could Ronnie have done that by himself? Probably. Ricky could have as well. So, today, I'm not saying we necessarily saw the true benefits of the R&R relationship. What happens tho if you give your ONE guy that many carries? You make it much more likely that he gets injured, drags butt at the end of the year, or just isn't effective period next week.

Marty Schottenheimer, a coach I have much respect for, has LaDainian in San Diego but doesn't have a Ricky Williams there. Even so, you can tell he's extremely conscious of LT's carries. In 3 years, 39 games, LT has only had 30+ carries in a total of 4 games....never more than twice in a year. The opposite of that would be Dave Wannstedt, who had Ricky Williams carry 30+ times in a game a total of 7 times in the two years he played here. In Ricky's case it led to worst than injury, it led to early retirement. If you don't think he was conscious of how badly he was being beaten up under Dave, you're kidding yourself.
 
as a side point, i think ricky loves his role as part-time player, part-time observer.

everything he said in the papers this week was manifest in todays game. the fins even ran those draw plays that ricky is great at.

CK, gotta question for you: do you think the running plays are or will be too predictable?

almost all of ronnies runs were from the same formation and diamond shifting from the slot to the FB.

i mentioned the fins using the draw for ricky, but when he comes in, the D may start to expect the draw as a signature situational play whe ricky comes in.
 
Jaj said:
I respect your analogy however, I'll give you another example. The 02 and the 03 Dolphins. 02 the Dolphins went 9-7 and beat several contenders yet lost some very stupid games. That year they could have beat both SB contenders. After that season they looked to fix their mistake and the off-season looked bright.

In 03 however the team went 10-6, yet lost its big matchups to the better teams. That team couldn't have beat the Patriots or the Panthers.

There were different things going on during those seasons. For instance, in the 2002 season, we were a lot better than our record indicated. We lost a bunch of those 7 games due to horrible backup QB play under Ray Lucas. It was honestly some of the worst QB play I have ever seen in my life, and I've seen games at all levels from high school to college, and pro. The ironic part about the 2002 season is if we just could have snuck into the playoffs, I believe we would have been in the AFC Championship. That's not quite the kind of team I was talking about where you beat teams you shouldn't beat, lose to teams you shouldn't lose to. We lost to teams because we had the worst active quarterback in the NFL taking snaps under center...maybe one of the 10 or 20 worst the NFL has seen starting over the last decade.

As for the 2003 season, I would argue that actually we were on our way to building something, except that we ended up having one of the most disastrous offseasons in what has to be NFL history, and then had a rash of injuries at irreplacable spots (DT) to boot.

Nothing is absolute. Just because you have a team showing the signs of being good at the foundations for building (ie beating the teams you should beat, losing to the teams you shouldn't) doesn't mean you always take that next step. This is still a very tough league to win in, and injuries that derail an entire season mid-stream, and disastrous offseasons that derail seasons before they even start, WILL happen. It's that kind of league. Doesn't change the fact that this team needs to be a team that stops surprising the coach, if we want to be able to build on things to become a winner.
 
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