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NFL Wildcard Tie Breakers

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[h=2]Two Clubs[/h]
  1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  4. Strength of victory.
  5. Strength of schedule.
  6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best net points in conference games.
  9. Best net points in all games.
  10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  11. Coin toss.
[h=2]Three or More Clubs[/h] (Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

  1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
  2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in conference games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

This is the complete list from the NFL.
 
CONF RK AFC W L T PCT DIV CONF SOS SOV REASON

1 x - Denver 11 2 0 .846 4-0-0 7-2-0 .515 .483 AFC West Champ

2 New England 10 3 0 .769 3-1-0 7-2-0 .473 .431 AFC East Champ

3 Cincinnati 9 4 0 .692 2-2-0 7-3-0 .482 .483 AFC North Champ

4 z - Indianapolis 8 5 0 .615 4-0-0 6-3-0 .509 .490 AFC South Champ

5 Kansas City 10 3 0 .769 1-3-0 6-3-0 .438 .354

6 Baltimore 7 6 0 .538 3-2-0 6-4-0 .438 .401 Wins tie break over Miami based on head-to-head win percentage.

7 Miami 7 6 0 .538 1-2-0 6-3-0 .503 .451

8 San Diego 6 7 0 .462 1-2-0 3-6-0 .491 .538 Wins tie break over NY Jets based on best win percentage in conference games.

9 NY Jets 6 7 0 .462 2-3-0 3-7-0 .485 .449

10 Tennessee 5 8 0 .385 0-4-0 4-6-0 .527 .400 Wins tie break over Pittsburgh based on head-to-head win percentage.

11 Pittsburgh 5 8 0 .385 2-2-0 4-6-0 .476 .431

These are the current playoff standings.
 
Where did you get that because off the top of my head I thought the order is:

Head to head
Division record
Common opponents
Conference record

Etc.......

Am I missing something?
 
MadDog 88 said:
Where did you get that because off the top of my head for the Wildcard it goes:

Head to head
Division record
Common opponents
Conference record

Etc.......

Am I missing something?
Click to expand...


Within the division, common games is a bigger factor . . . when breaking a tie within the conference, conference record means more.
 
Kdawg954 said:
Within the division, common games is a bigger factor . . . when breaking a tie within the conference, conference record means more.
Click to expand...
I have always been under the impression that head to head and division (regardless if the two teams play in the same division or not) were the first two.

---------- Post added at 11:13 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:12 AM ----------

Than if it is two teams from the same division it goes to common opponents followed by conference.
 
MadDog 88 said:
I have always been under the impression that head to head and division (regardless if the two teams play in the same division or not) were the first two.

---------- Post added at 11:13 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:12 AM ----------

Than if it is two teams from the same division it goes to common opponents followed by conference.
Click to expand...

Correct, Head to Head and division record always are the top dogs in divisional tiebreaks. However common games is more important in divisional tiebreaks where conference record is more important in conference tiebreaks. Miami would need to win their divisional tiebreak first before factoring their conference tiebreaks.

---------- Post added at 05:23 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:22 AM ----------

I'm doing a write up on it now, it's almost finished
 
Kdawg954 said:
Correct, Head to Head and division record always are the top dogs in divisional tiebreaks. However common games is more important in divisional tiebreaks where conference record is more important in conference tiebreaks. Miami would need to win their divisional tiebreak first before factoring their conference tiebreaks.

---------- Post added at 05:23 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:22 AM ----------

I'm doing a write up on it now, it's almost finished
Click to expand...
Thats what I thought.

SOBE I think you forgot Division record after head to head.
 
I'll break it down like this:

7-9

First off . . . there is no way Miami can make it in at 7-9. Let's get that out of the way. We would lose a divisional tiebreaker to the Jets. So even if every team on that list is 7-9, we'd be 1-5 in the division while the Jets would be 3-3. Buffalo can actually make it in at 7-9 with the right combo as they would be 4-2 in the division and own the critical tiebreak we wish we had over the Ravens.

8-8

8-8 is much more promising. Miami at 8-8 would need a few things to happen. Obviously you need to win a divisional tiebreak first. That means either the Jets finishing with a worse record (7-9 or 6-10) or both teams finishing 8-8 with Miami's lone win coming in week 17 against the Jets (head to head tiebreak which Miami would win with a sweep).

Once you win a divisional tiebreak, you face the same dilemma you have in a 10-6 tiebreak . . . which is Baltimore. The great thing about an 8-8 tiebreak is, it could potentially introduce more teams into the tiebreaking scenario . . . and Miami's awesome conference record is a major advantage in that battle. If Baltimore were to lose out and go 7-9, Miami WINS every tiebreak against all teams that are 8-8. They own the head to head tiebreakers against San Diego and Pittsburgh and would have 7 conference wins while nobody else could have more than 6.

If Baltimore finishes 8-8, you could still get in by A. Pittsburgh winning out . . . which Pittsburgh would win any divisional tiebreak based on common games (which is more valuable when settling divisional tiebreakers). If Pittsburgh can't play a factor, you could also hope Baltimore beats Detroit, but loses to NE and Cincy . . . keeping them at 6 conference wins. Then a team like San Diego or the Titans finishing 8-8 would enter the picture and Miami's 7 conference wins vs. everybody elses 6 conference wins gets them in, regardless of the head to head tiebreaker that Bmore owns over us.


9-7

At 9-7, divisionally speaking, the Dolphins would still have to hope the Jets don't win out (which means beating us in week 17). If that happens, we lose a common games tiebreak to the Jets (division record would be tied at 3-3) and they take the divisional tiebreak. The best way to look at common games IMO is to take the 2 uncommon games and the team with the "worse" record in those uncommon games would by default have a better record in common games. Miami is 2-0 in uncommon games (wins against Indy and San Diego), which means they'd be 7-7 in common games. The Jets would be 1-1 in uncommon games (loss to Tennessee but win against Oakland) which would make them 8-6 in common games . . . a better record than Miami. Hope that makes sense.

Once you win the divisional tiebreak, ****ing Baltimore is the team that can still burn us by finishing 9-7. . . . however now there is a new twist. Cincy could lose out . . . . and if that happens, we get the 6 seed by default as Baltimore would win the division if both Cincy and Baltimore finish at 9-7. Head to head tiebreaks over a 9-7 Cincy and a potential 9-7 Chargers team favor us as we have beaten both teams.

There is also one scenario that would require San Diego winning out to finish 9-7 and then Baltimore winning 2 of 3, with one of those wins being against Detroit. That would mean Baltimore would only have 7 conference wins and Miami would have 8 and Miami would win the conference tiebreak.

10-6

First off if this team finishes 10-6 and misses the playoffs it would be a damn shame, but it is still very possible if New England, KC, Cincy all reach 11 wins and Baltimore wins out and goes 10-6. That is the only way Miami is eliminated at 10-6.

There are tons of scenarios of getting into the playoffs at 10-6 right now, I'll give a few of them.

1. Miami can get the 2nd seed and a first round bye by hoping New England loses out, Cincy loses 2 of their final 3 games, and Indy loses another game. Miami would win the division and own tiebreaks over all of them (a 10-6 Baltimore team could also get the 2nd seed in this scenario . . . it gets tricky as a 10-6 Indy team helps us but a 9-7 Indy team helps them.).

2. Obviously the 3rd and 4th seeds still require a divisional tiebreaker against New England, meaning New England losing out and us winning out. We'd have the 4-2 divisional tiebreak vs. their 3-3 tiebreak. Cincy or Indy would have 11 wins in this scenario.

3. The 5th seed is only on the table if Miami wins out, doesn't win the division and KC loses out. KC has a terrible conference record (3 games up on Miami, yet tied in conference record . . . think about that) and would lose ALL 10-6 tiebreaks. They need that 11th win more than anybody to ensure the playoffs.

4. 6th seed is most likely at this time because I don't see NE and KC losing out . . . 1 more win by both and Miami can ONLY get the 6 seed. That is what we probably should be expecting. I will say that week 16 Bmore/NE game will be an interesting root for us. Obviously the better chance relies in NE beating Bmore and opening up the 6 seed path . . . but if Bmore beats NE, and we would of beaten NE the week before . . . we open up the chance to win the division in week 17.


Should be a lot of fun. We just need to handle ours and let it all play out.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
MadDog 88 said:
Thats what I thought.

SOBE I think you forgot Division record after head to head.
Click to expand...

He has it right, what he forgot is the fact that you have to break ties within the division first. Division record doesn't mean anything when breaking ties within the conference.

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs
1.Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5.Strength of victory.
6.Strength of schedule.
7.Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8.Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9.Best net points in common games.
10.Best net points in all games.
11.Best net touchdowns in all games.
12.Coin toss

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).
1.Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
2.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5.Strength of victory.
6.Strength of schedule.
7.Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8.Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9.Best net points in common games.
10.Best net points in all games.
11.Best net touchdowns in all games.
12.Coin toss

You have to break ties within the division first, before using SOBE's formula up top.
 
roy_miami said:
Get to 10-6 and hope, 9-7 won't be good enough imo.
Click to expand...

Yea 9-7 would almost certainly mean you need Baltimore to finish 8-8 (outside of the scenarios I posted above). Still very possible as they have 3 tough games . . . but I would say root HEAVY for Pittsburgh over Cincy this week. You want to draw Cincy back in whatever possible scenarios so that week 17 game they have against the Ravens means something.

If Cincy loses one of the next 2 games . . . Miami is ensured of getting in at 10-6 . . . regardless of what Baltimore does.
 
Balt- @ Detroit, vs Pats, @ Cinci.

Cinci- @ Pitt, vs Minny, vs Balt.

San Diego= @ Denver, vs Oak, vs KC.

Jets- @ Carolina. vs Cleve, @ Miami.

Pitt- vs Cinci, @ GB, vs Cleve.

Tenn- vs Zona, @ Jax, vs Houst.

Miami- vs Pats, @ Buff, vs Jets.

I started this Wild playoff roller coaster ride in the 4th quarter on Sunday with the Phins winning, Pats losng, and Balt losing. We had a shot at the division or were in the drivers seat for the 6 spot. Then everything got frakin nuts in the wildest finishes I have ever seen for 3 games.

After all that, things basically came back to where we started. ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGH!!!
 
It's crazy that the Baltimore game is the one game that is causing all this hell for Miami. If we win that game we could clinch a playoff birth this weekend and have a realistic shot at the division. Now it's currently out of our hands.
 
Kdawg954 said:
It's crazy that the Baltimore game is the one game that is causing all this hell for Miami. If we win that game we could clinch a playoff birth this weekend and have a realistic shot at the division. Now it's currently out of our hands.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that game was brutal, taking 6 sacks, dropping 6 passes, running for 22 yards, and losing by a FG in the last 2 minutes.
 
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