Here is a nice article I found on the phinsider. It describes just how many of Chad's passing yards were from the air and how much was YAC.
http://www.********ider.com/2009/1/10/716564/interesting-unconventional
Interesting Unconventional Stat: Air Yards & CP10
by GatorPhan on Jan 10, 2009 11:14 PM EST
I recently stumbled across a very interesting new stat at Advanced NFL NFL Stats (via Smart Football – Analysis and Strategy by Chris) that really struck a chord with me due to our QB conversation, and all of the people calling for Chad Henne to replace Chad Pennington due to the fact that he cannot get the ball down the field. It is a concept I am surprised was not the original way to do things in the first place. It addresses a question many people have probably asked themselves: Why in the world does a quarterback get credit for a 60 yard pass if he just dumps it to his RB, and the RB makes an amazing play to get up the field?
Granted, a smart pass from a QB can lead a receiver to be able to create the YAC- but ignoring the difference between yards actually thrown in the air, and YAC can lead to some misleading numbers. The article demonstrates the case of 2 QBs. Both QBs had just over 7 yards per completion, and both had a stellar QB rating of 95. One was Peyton Manning, and the other was Tavares Jackson. Obviously there was something wrong here. Air Yards aim to bring this disparity from the normal stats to the surface. Air Yards, simply put, measure the distance the ball actually traveled in the air from the line of scrimmage to the receiver.
What really interested me though was when I looked at the "Air Yards" rankings A-NFL-S had compiled. If you had to guess which QBs had the most "Air Yards" in the NFL, who do you think it would be? Probably some rocket armed QB, like Brett Farve. Nope. Maybe it was Drew Brees, who nearly eclipsed Dan Marino’s single season passing yards record? Think again. Surely the Dolphins own "noodle armed" QB Chad Pennington didn’t come near the top of the list right? All he does is dump it off and let our shifty receivers get up the field for him right?
Surprisingly, he was the #5 QB in the league in gaining "Air Yards" behind Jake DelHomme, Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers. He is just ahead of Sage Rosenfels, Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, and Drew Brees to round out the top ten. Pretty spectacular.
Of Chad Pennington’s 3,653 passing yards, 1,546 were yards gained after the catch. That means 2,107 yards were all CP and his arm. Given his 476 (regular season) attempts, that means he gained about 4.43 Air Yards per attempt. If the QBs were rated by that stat, he would fall one spot to 6th. The percentage of his yards after catch compared to total yards is 42.3%- which ranks him the #10 QB for AY by percentage. Looks like no matter how you slice it, Chad threw the ball further threw the air than all but a hand full of QBs, and really did not receive that much help from his receivers.
For a comparison to the "traditional stats"- Chad Pennington was the #9 QB in passing yards- behind Brees, Warner, Cutler, Rodgers, Rivers, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, and Matt Cassel. Only Rivers, and Rodgers beat him in Air Yards.
The biggest disparity in stats is with Matt Cassel. In fact, Matt Cassel was the THIRTY SEVENTH ranked QB in AY. He is DEAD LAST in percentage of yards gained after the catch (57% of his 3,693 yards were gained after the catch).
Other QBs joining him at the bottom of the list: JT O’Sullivan, Jason Campbell, Brett the Jet Favre, JP Losman, and Seneca Wallace. Not exactly great company there. The QBs with the lowest AY in ’07 included Brodie Croyle, Joey Harrington, Brett Farve, JP Losman, and our own Cleo Lemon. The "class of ‘06" has such stars as Brett Farve, Mark Brunell, David Carr, and Alex Smith.
Now this doesn’t prove anything, but I’d say it gives us at least a hint that the Patriots have a brilliant system, and furthermore, that Matt Cassel sucks- and will probably be terrible with the next team that picks him up.
And as you could see, the man the Jets dumped Chad for was at the bottom of the list for the past 3 years. For all the talk of opening up the field, his cannon arm, etc- this is how he did this year: 1,779 of his 3,472 yards were after the catch- which equates to 3.2 AY/Attempt, or 51% of his total passing yardage. So how did that work for you? Maybe Laverneus Coles wasn’t just being spiteful when he said the ball machine threw a harder pass.
So how many of you out there would have guessed Chad Pennington was in the top 10 for every single category that measures how far the ball actually travels from the line of scrimmage, and the #5 overall? I’d say old "noodle arm" has acquitted himself pretty well. Maybe we have a stronger case for getting that big time #1 receiver than I thought. . .
Check out the full chart- as per Advanced NFL Statistics below (with a few added columns- see http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/01/air-yards-2008.html for the original):
Rank QB Total Yards YAC Air Yards YAC % Air Yards % Air Yards/Attempt 1 Jake Delhomme 3288 1269 2019 38.59% 61.41% 4.9 2 Matt Ryan 3440 1404 2036 40.81% 59.19% 4.7 3 Phillip Rivers 4009 1840 2169 45.90% 54.10% 4.5 4 Aaron Rodgers 4038 1652 2386 40.91% 59.09% 4.5 5 Chad Pennington 3653 1546 2107 42.32% 57.68% 4.4 6 Sage Rosenfels 1431 664 767 46.40% 53.60% 4.4 7 Jay Cutler 4526 1881 2645 41.56% 58.44% 4.3 8 Peyton Manning 4002 1627 2375 40.65% 59.35% 4.3 9 Eli Manning 3238 1220 2018 37.68% 62.32% 4.2 10 Drew Brees 5069 2398 2671 47.31% 52.69% 4.2 11 Tony Romo 3448 1578 1870 45.77% 54.23% 4.2 12 Matt Schaub 3043 1470 1573 48.31% 51.69% 4.1 13 Ben Roethlisberger 3301 1368 1933 41.44% 58.56% 4.1 14 Kurt Warner 4583 2173 2410 47.41% 52.59% 4.0 15 Shaun Hill 2046 895 1151 43.74% 56.26% 4.0 16 David Garrard 3620 1494 2126 41.27% 58.73% 4.0 17 Jeff Garcia 2712 1248 1464 46.02% 53.98% 3.9 18 Trent Edwards 2699 1266 1433 46.91% 53.09% 3.8 19 Dan Orlovsky 1616 652 964 40.35% 59.65% 3.8 20 Gus Frerotte 2157 1023 1134 47.43% 52.57% 3.8 21 Tavares Jackson 1056 502 554 47.54% 52.46% 3.8 22 Donovan McNabb 3916 1805 2111 46.09% 53.91% 3.7 23 Matt hasselbeck 1216 451 765 37.09% 62.91% 3.7 24 J.T. O'Sullivan 1678 887 791 52.86% 47.14% 3.7 25 Joe Flacco 2971 1433 1538 48.23% 51.77% 3.6 26 Tyler Thigpen 2608 1101 1507 42.22% 57.78% 3.6 27 JaMarcus Russell 2423 1143 1280 47.17% 52.83% 3.6 28 Kerry Collins 2676 1292 1384 48.28% 51.72% 3.5 29 Kyle Orton 2972 1450 1522 48.79% 51.21% 3.3 30 Brett Favre 3472 1779 1693 51.24% 48.76% 3.3 31 Brady Quinn 518 230 288 44.40% 55.60% 3.2 32 Seneca Wallace 1532 755 777 49.28% 50.72% 3.2 33 Brian Griese 1073 488 585 45.48% 54.52% 3.2 34 Derek Anderon 1615 724 891 44.83% 55.17% 3.1 35 Marc Bulger 2720 1336 1384 49.12% 50.88% 3.1 36 Jason Campbell 3245 1686 1559 51.96% 48.04% 3.1 37 Matt Cassell 3693 2116 1577 57.30% 42.70% 3.1 38 Carson Palmer 731 358 373 48.97% 51.03% 2.9 39 Ryan Fitzpatrick 1905 848 1057 44.51% 55.49% 2.8 40 J.P. Losman 584 294 290 50.34% 49.66% 2.8
http://www.********ider.com/2009/1/10/716564/interesting-unconventional
Interesting Unconventional Stat: Air Yards & CP10
I recently stumbled across a very interesting new stat at Advanced NFL NFL Stats (via Smart Football – Analysis and Strategy by Chris) that really struck a chord with me due to our QB conversation, and all of the people calling for Chad Henne to replace Chad Pennington due to the fact that he cannot get the ball down the field. It is a concept I am surprised was not the original way to do things in the first place. It addresses a question many people have probably asked themselves: Why in the world does a quarterback get credit for a 60 yard pass if he just dumps it to his RB, and the RB makes an amazing play to get up the field?
Granted, a smart pass from a QB can lead a receiver to be able to create the YAC- but ignoring the difference between yards actually thrown in the air, and YAC can lead to some misleading numbers. The article demonstrates the case of 2 QBs. Both QBs had just over 7 yards per completion, and both had a stellar QB rating of 95. One was Peyton Manning, and the other was Tavares Jackson. Obviously there was something wrong here. Air Yards aim to bring this disparity from the normal stats to the surface. Air Yards, simply put, measure the distance the ball actually traveled in the air from the line of scrimmage to the receiver.
What really interested me though was when I looked at the "Air Yards" rankings A-NFL-S had compiled. If you had to guess which QBs had the most "Air Yards" in the NFL, who do you think it would be? Probably some rocket armed QB, like Brett Farve. Nope. Maybe it was Drew Brees, who nearly eclipsed Dan Marino’s single season passing yards record? Think again. Surely the Dolphins own "noodle armed" QB Chad Pennington didn’t come near the top of the list right? All he does is dump it off and let our shifty receivers get up the field for him right?
Surprisingly, he was the #5 QB in the league in gaining "Air Yards" behind Jake DelHomme, Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers. He is just ahead of Sage Rosenfels, Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, and Drew Brees to round out the top ten. Pretty spectacular.
Of Chad Pennington’s 3,653 passing yards, 1,546 were yards gained after the catch. That means 2,107 yards were all CP and his arm. Given his 476 (regular season) attempts, that means he gained about 4.43 Air Yards per attempt. If the QBs were rated by that stat, he would fall one spot to 6th. The percentage of his yards after catch compared to total yards is 42.3%- which ranks him the #10 QB for AY by percentage. Looks like no matter how you slice it, Chad threw the ball further threw the air than all but a hand full of QBs, and really did not receive that much help from his receivers.
For a comparison to the "traditional stats"- Chad Pennington was the #9 QB in passing yards- behind Brees, Warner, Cutler, Rodgers, Rivers, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, and Matt Cassel. Only Rivers, and Rodgers beat him in Air Yards.
The biggest disparity in stats is with Matt Cassel. In fact, Matt Cassel was the THIRTY SEVENTH ranked QB in AY. He is DEAD LAST in percentage of yards gained after the catch (57% of his 3,693 yards were gained after the catch).
Other QBs joining him at the bottom of the list: JT O’Sullivan, Jason Campbell, Brett the Jet Favre, JP Losman, and Seneca Wallace. Not exactly great company there. The QBs with the lowest AY in ’07 included Brodie Croyle, Joey Harrington, Brett Farve, JP Losman, and our own Cleo Lemon. The "class of ‘06" has such stars as Brett Farve, Mark Brunell, David Carr, and Alex Smith.
Now this doesn’t prove anything, but I’d say it gives us at least a hint that the Patriots have a brilliant system, and furthermore, that Matt Cassel sucks- and will probably be terrible with the next team that picks him up.
And as you could see, the man the Jets dumped Chad for was at the bottom of the list for the past 3 years. For all the talk of opening up the field, his cannon arm, etc- this is how he did this year: 1,779 of his 3,472 yards were after the catch- which equates to 3.2 AY/Attempt, or 51% of his total passing yardage. So how did that work for you? Maybe Laverneus Coles wasn’t just being spiteful when he said the ball machine threw a harder pass.
So how many of you out there would have guessed Chad Pennington was in the top 10 for every single category that measures how far the ball actually travels from the line of scrimmage, and the #5 overall? I’d say old "noodle arm" has acquitted himself pretty well. Maybe we have a stronger case for getting that big time #1 receiver than I thought. . .
Check out the full chart- as per Advanced NFL Statistics below (with a few added columns- see http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/01/air-yards-2008.html for the original):
Rank QB Total Yards YAC Air Yards YAC % Air Yards % Air Yards/Attempt 1 Jake Delhomme 3288 1269 2019 38.59% 61.41% 4.9 2 Matt Ryan 3440 1404 2036 40.81% 59.19% 4.7 3 Phillip Rivers 4009 1840 2169 45.90% 54.10% 4.5 4 Aaron Rodgers 4038 1652 2386 40.91% 59.09% 4.5 5 Chad Pennington 3653 1546 2107 42.32% 57.68% 4.4 6 Sage Rosenfels 1431 664 767 46.40% 53.60% 4.4 7 Jay Cutler 4526 1881 2645 41.56% 58.44% 4.3 8 Peyton Manning 4002 1627 2375 40.65% 59.35% 4.3 9 Eli Manning 3238 1220 2018 37.68% 62.32% 4.2 10 Drew Brees 5069 2398 2671 47.31% 52.69% 4.2 11 Tony Romo 3448 1578 1870 45.77% 54.23% 4.2 12 Matt Schaub 3043 1470 1573 48.31% 51.69% 4.1 13 Ben Roethlisberger 3301 1368 1933 41.44% 58.56% 4.1 14 Kurt Warner 4583 2173 2410 47.41% 52.59% 4.0 15 Shaun Hill 2046 895 1151 43.74% 56.26% 4.0 16 David Garrard 3620 1494 2126 41.27% 58.73% 4.0 17 Jeff Garcia 2712 1248 1464 46.02% 53.98% 3.9 18 Trent Edwards 2699 1266 1433 46.91% 53.09% 3.8 19 Dan Orlovsky 1616 652 964 40.35% 59.65% 3.8 20 Gus Frerotte 2157 1023 1134 47.43% 52.57% 3.8 21 Tavares Jackson 1056 502 554 47.54% 52.46% 3.8 22 Donovan McNabb 3916 1805 2111 46.09% 53.91% 3.7 23 Matt hasselbeck 1216 451 765 37.09% 62.91% 3.7 24 J.T. O'Sullivan 1678 887 791 52.86% 47.14% 3.7 25 Joe Flacco 2971 1433 1538 48.23% 51.77% 3.6 26 Tyler Thigpen 2608 1101 1507 42.22% 57.78% 3.6 27 JaMarcus Russell 2423 1143 1280 47.17% 52.83% 3.6 28 Kerry Collins 2676 1292 1384 48.28% 51.72% 3.5 29 Kyle Orton 2972 1450 1522 48.79% 51.21% 3.3 30 Brett Favre 3472 1779 1693 51.24% 48.76% 3.3 31 Brady Quinn 518 230 288 44.40% 55.60% 3.2 32 Seneca Wallace 1532 755 777 49.28% 50.72% 3.2 33 Brian Griese 1073 488 585 45.48% 54.52% 3.2 34 Derek Anderon 1615 724 891 44.83% 55.17% 3.1 35 Marc Bulger 2720 1336 1384 49.12% 50.88% 3.1 36 Jason Campbell 3245 1686 1559 51.96% 48.04% 3.1 37 Matt Cassell 3693 2116 1577 57.30% 42.70% 3.1 38 Carson Palmer 731 358 373 48.97% 51.03% 2.9 39 Ryan Fitzpatrick 1905 848 1057 44.51% 55.49% 2.8 40 J.P. Losman 584 294 290 50.34% 49.66% 2.8
