Now that the Draft is in the Rearview Window | Page 5 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Now that the Draft is in the Rearview Window

yeah I was a bit surprise they didn't draft a center. I'm going with that's how the board fell for them and they were going to stick to it. Tme will tell if that was the right decision or not.

Agree, but the fact OC apparently didn't rate higher on their board says a lot.
 
Agree, but the fact OC apparently didn't rate higher on their board says a lot.
It appears to me, and I don't know why this isn't brought up as a possibility, that Flo prefers experience, or possibly at the least developing a player for a period of time, to throwing a young player into the C position.

It's possible he does value the position, he just doesn't trust inexperience there.

I can see, and respect that POV, if that is the case.
 
First of all,, I don't agree with the premise, "it's not formidable". It was top ten last year with 42. That's 2.6 a game...the Bucs won the SB with with 3 a game. That's interesting.

Additionally, you concede it'll be "improved", but still not willing to call it formidable. I'm inclined to think this comes from perception and narrative as opposed to facts.

Not sure what you were expecting from AVG..5.5 sacks, 3 FF, PFF grade of 79...played only half team snaps.

But also, using your logic, there is nothing we could have done in the draft to change this opinion, because none of them have played and we are just hoping ALL of them live up to the hype. We don't know how the depth will shake out.

Another thing to consider is scheme. Pressure is often applied by disguised coverages and rushers. Another year, presumably more familiarity, "hopefully" will yield better play.

Narratives are powerful drivers, I get that..but juxtaposing them against facts, imo, is the better way to analyze the team.

If we are improved in any position, imo, is not a reason to wring hands.
It wasn't formidable BECAUSE it was so scheme-driven. In order to get sacks, we had to rush 5 and even 6 players. We had to run tons of cover zero which meant that every single receiver was in single coverage.

You are looking at this from a statistics standpoint, saying that the number of sacks equates to a equivalence in positive plays... and it just doesn't, because going cover zero and sending six is feast... or famine. It leads to a few more sacks, but a lot more completions as well, and this is one of the reasons we were way down the charts in yardage given up and average yards per play. Sadly, that's the flipside of using a scheme to generate sacks.

Formidable teams generate lots of pressure by sending only 3 or 4.

This isn't a narrative, this is football 101.
 
Just a guess, but you'll likely get some responses on the apparent either/or stuff. I can read that post as, 'it doesn't matter how good the 'team' is if TT doesn't play to top level.' You know, like Trent Dilfer.
I'm NOT saying TT doesn't have to play well and I expect great improvement. But he can't drag a below average 'team' along with him. Even Rodgers and Brady couldn't.
I think the majority of the fans feel Tua has enough talent around him to succeed!

They are more talented and more experienced than last years 10-6 team.
 
It wasn't formidable BECAUSE it was so scheme-driven. In order to get sacks, we had to rush 5 and even 6 players. We had to run tons of cover zero which meant that every single receiver was in single coverage.

You are looking at this from a statistics standpoint, saying that the number of sacks equates to a equivalence in positive plays... and it just doesn't, because going cover zero and sending six is feast... or famine. It leads to a few more sacks, but a lot more completions as well, and this is one of the reasons we were way down the charts in yardage given up and average yards per play. Sadly, that's the flipside of using a scheme to generate sacks.

Formidable teams generate lots of pressure by sending only 3 or 4.

This isn't a narrative, this is football 101.
Excellent discussion, and topic.

You certainly aren't wrong in that having pass rushers that are effective 1v1 is a great thing to have. I would even go so far as to say almost essential to being a dominant defense.

On the other hand, I love this scheme driven defense, and I don't discount the fact that it gives QBs and OCs fits.

I also don't put nearly as much emphasis on yds allowed as I do points allowed. I believe this is somewhat a product of overall philosophy in Flo's case, rather than an inherent weakness.

Let's hope Phillips can mitigate this "flaw", and allow us to sell out a bit less. When a team is too dependant on blitzing to get pressure, they are playing with fire, and eventually will get burned.

A good defense can get away with it during the regular season, but against good, playoff caliber offenses, you need an effective pass rush from the front line.

I also believe when you are talking about a 3-4 hybrid like ours, with all the "smoke and mirrors" deception, blitzing from the second level is an integral part of the philosophy.

I guess what I'm saying is that I don't think it is as "black and white" as it may appear.

For example, if AVG, or even Baker for that matter, is coming, technically it is a "blitz", but in reality it is within the design of the defense, and not a move of desperation.
 
It wasn't formidable BECAUSE it was so scheme-driven. In order to get sacks, we had to rush 5 and even 6 players. We had to run tons of cover zero which meant that every single receiver was in single coverage.

You are looking at this from a statistics standpoint, saying that the number of sacks equates to a equivalence in positive plays... and it just doesn't, because going cover zero and sending six is feast... or famine. It leads to a few more sacks, but a lot more completions as well, and this is one of the reasons we were way down the charts in yardage given up and average yards per play. Sadly, that's the flipside of using a scheme to generate sacks.

Formidable teams generate lots of pressure by sending only 3 or 4.

This isn't a narrative, this is football 101.
To add to that, when the offensive line picks up the blitz, the defense gave up big plays.

The Buffalo game as an example.
 
Excellent discussion, and topic.

You certainly aren't wrong in that having pass rushers that are effective 1v1 is a great thing to have. I would even go so far as to say almost essential to being a dominant defense.

On the other hand, I love this scheme driven defense, and I don't discount the fact that it gives QBs and OCs fits.

I also don't put nearly as much emphasis on yds allowed as I do points allowed. I believe this is somewhat a product of overall philosophy in Flo's case, rather than an inherent weakness.

Let's hope Phillips can mitigate this "flaw", and allow us to sell out a bit less. When a team is too dependant on blitzing to get pressure, they are playing with fire, and eventually will get burned.

A good defense can get away with it during the regular season, but against good, playoff caliber offenses, you need an effective pass rush from the front line.

I also believe when you are talking about a 3-4 hybrid like ours, with all the "smoke and mirrors" deception, blitzing from the second level is an integral part of the philosophy.

I guess what I'm saying is that I don't think it is as "black and white" as it may appear.

For example, if AVG, or even Baker for that matter, is coming, technically it is a "blitz", but in reality it is within the design of the defense, and not a move of desperation.
The defense was particularly good in key situations. Third downs, redzone etc.

That's what you always saw with NE during their run.

That's probably the new definition of a shutdown defense. I agree with you on yards. I really don't care about that as much as points allowed. It's coming up big in crucial moments.
 
For what it's worth, Kiper revisits why he gave the Dolphins an "A" on their draft.


Not a Kiper fan but he's spot on about Tua and the hip injury.

Those who don't understand how much it affected him have never thrown a football.

This is the year he steps up to show us what we saw at Alabama and why we drafted him.
 
Not a Kiper fan but he's spot on about Tua and the hip injury.

Those who don't understand how much it affected him have never thrown a football.

This is the year he steps up to show us what we saw at Alabama and why we drafted him.
Maybe not the best comparison, but Buster Posey is absolutely killing it this year for the San Francisco Giants.

He had hip surgery a few years back. Didn't play very well his first year after surgery. Opted out last year and is back strong.

As a catcher, that's got to be tough to overcome.
 
The defense was particularly good in key situations. Third downs, redzone etc.

That's what you always saw with NE during their run.

That's probably the new definition of a shutdown defense. I agree with you on yards. I really don't care about that as much as points allowed. It's coming up big in crucial moments.
By the end of the year, the better teams were beginning to out-scheme our scheme. They'd found ways to pick up those blitzes. Ogbah had one sack in the last 6 games-- he completely disappeared. As good as he was in the first half of the season, teams found a way to neutralize him later on.

By the time we hit Buffalo, they had our scheme, and better players... and it got ugly. Now don't get me wrong, I spent the offseason SCREAMING that we needed more pass rush and Phillips may be enough... maybe, but we're awfully shallow. If Ogbah or Phillips miss a game, there is absolutely zero behind them. Strowbridge is a run-stopper, Render and Ledbetter are back of the roster UDFA types, Butler and Seiler are tackles, no matter where they line up... pass rush is NOT their game.

I get that people like AVG and think he'll replace all of KVN's production, but on many downs, BOTH were in the game at the same time, and while AVG should replace KVN, no one was brought in to replace AVG... so, net loss.

IF Phillips contends for DROY, and IF Ogbah and AVG both take huge leaps... and IF all three stay healthy... then maybe, but I look at all those IFs and I see a house of cards. I still remember the year where Wake got injured and our pass rush just disappeared along with him.

Now... I've argued this strenuously, but I do realize that you can't fix everything in one year... and I did bring this up in a thread dedicated to 'what could go wrong', rather than "what WILL go wrong", or "how we screwed up". I'm still hopeful, but I've got a stand up, pass-rushing SSLB in the first round of 2022 on my card, I just have not penciled in a name yet.
 
By the end of the year, the better teams were beginning to out-scheme our scheme. They'd found ways to pick up those blitzes. Ogbah had one sack in the last 6 games-- he completely disappeared. As good as he was in the first half of the season, teams found a way to neutralize him later on.

By the time we hit Buffalo, they had our scheme, and better players... and it got ugly. Now don't get me wrong, I spent the offseason SCREAMING that we needed more pass rush and Phillips may be enough... maybe, but we're awfully shallow. If Ogbah or Phillips miss a game, there is absolutely zero behind them. Strowbridge is a run-stopper, Render and Ledbetter are back of the roster UDFA types, Butler and Seiler are tackles, no matter where they line up... pass rush is NOT their game.

I get that people like AVG and think he'll replace all of KVN's production, but on many downs, BOTH were in the game at the same time, and while AVG should replace KVN, no one was brought in to replace AVG... so, net loss.

IF Phillips contends for DROY, and IF Ogbah and AVG both take huge leaps... and IF all three stay healthy... then maybe, but I look at all those IFs and I see a house of cards. I still remember the year where Wake got injured and our pass rush just disappeared along with him.

Now... I've argued this strenuously, but I do realize that you can't fix everything in one year... and I did bring this up in a thread dedicated to 'what could go wrong', rather than "what WILL go wrong", or "how we screwed up". I'm still hopeful, but I've got a stand up, pass-rushing SSLB in the first round of 2022 on my card, I just have not penciled in a name yet.
Agree. Buffalo definitely figured out Miami's defensive scheme, and kept throwing deep with the game out of reach just to prove that point. Flores has to make some adjustments, at least against the better teams.

Did Miami do enough on defense? Like you said, if they stay healthy maybe. By the way, I've seen Phillips listed as a linebacker and edge. Didn't he play just edge at Miami? Maybe he's a linebacker in the Dolphins 3-4 sets and, in that sense, you've got the Van Noy snaps.

The real problem was the offense needed a lot of help. That had to be the focus. The offense definitely could help the defense out with longer, sustained drives. Without looking at the stats, I wouldn't be surprised if the Dolphins led the NFL in three and outs. The defense was on the field a lot. If the offense can even reach league average, we'll see a fresh defense.

On paper at least, I think Miami's offense has a chance to be slightly better than league average. The offensive line is young, but adding that elite speed with Fuller and Waddle could take the Dolphins to another level.
 
I would actually put us in the top 3 of the AFC.

1. KC
2. BUF
3. MIA
4. CLE
5. BAL
6. TEN - may fall off bc Henry is getting a bit old for a RB

Teams i expect to fall off this year.....

IND - Wentz might make them worse
NE - might slightly improve from last year but not enough to make playoffs. But a fall from their traditional dominance
PIT - Big Ben is aging rapidly they need a rebuild honestly
LV - I think Vegas will be awful this season
HOU- they will prob be the worst team in football


Teams i expect stay about even from last year ....

Den -* unless they land Rodgers then they are a playoff team.
SD
CIN


Teams I expect to slightly improve ....

NYJ - really like their last 2 drafts they will be better than last year under Gase.... no where to go but up. Prob 4 wins.
JAX - also prob around 4 wins. They have talent on defense and Lawrence will do pretty well.

I think that's all the AFC.... im sure ill be corrected if I forgot someone
 
Our YPPA Differential last year was -.7.


Only 7 teams were worse than that. When you are a -.7 team you are not legitimate. You won plenty of games based on other factors than the key relationship between passing offense and passing defense. That is not sustainable. Everyone who is emphasizing it's all on Tua is light years more accurate than those stuck in the time warp of a team sport.

It should be obvious fairly early whether or not we can threaten vertically and open everything up. Tua needs to look strong and healthy with a frame and arm capable of dictating downfield. Last season I was envisioning gorgeous looping rainbows then it ended up being a guy staring at short targets while physically overmatched by league standards.

Even if Tua restores college form, the main problem in 2021 is that regression is the table setting. When you exceed expectation in 2019 then exceed expectation dramatically in 2020, the wrong way to look at it is we're certain to exceed expectation again. Generalities overwhelm specifics. Everyone expecting improvement is focusing on personnel specifics. That is sucker material.
 
Yes, all Dolphins fans are or should be rooting for Tua to succeed. However there are those with agendas who would rather see the kid fail no matter what.
I don't see that. I can't really comprehend what "agendas" those would be.

Some fans are capable of taking off their Dolphins colored glasses and see the deficiencies in Tua's game in Alabama and his 1st year in the NFL, and some fans aren't.
 
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