Official Playoff Scenario Thread w/ 2 Games Left

Kdawg954

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Official Playoff Scenario Thread w/ 2 Games Left (Updated After Ravens Win)

If you aren't believers in the 2013 Miami Dolphins after winning on the road in Pittsburgh and at home against the New England Patriots to snap a 7 game losing streak, it's time to start believing. Philbin, Tannehill and company have gotten over bullygate and have seemingly used it as motivation to become serious contenders at making a run at a playoff spot.

Let's take a closer look at the possibilities:

FIRST OFF, AFTER THE BENGALS LOSS TO THE STEELERS . . . WE OFFICIALLY CONTROL OUR OWN DESTINY TO THE PLAYOFFS. WIN OUT AND WE ARE IN. I know everybody has been stressing the Ravens winning out, but that Steelers win allows for a 3 way tie scenario between Bmore/Cincy/Us in which we take the wildcard with a tiebreak over Cincinnati while Baltimore would take the division.

Here are the possible records and how we would look:

10-6

I will say it one more time, A 10-6 Miami team is officially in the playoffs. Win out and you are in the dance.

#1 Seed (home field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first round bye) - Miami can no longer get the #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Both Denver and KC have 11 wins and Miami can only get 10.

#2 Seed (first round bye and home game in the divisional round) - This scenario is actually more realistic this week so I will go into detail. First off, New England would need to lose their final 2 games. That would tie them with the Dolphins in the division, and Miami would win the division via tiebreaker of better division record (4-2 for us and 3-3 for them). Once that is done, the combo of Indy/Cincy/Bmore would have to have 10 wins or less.

Indy (9-5) - @KC, vs. Jville
Cincy (9-5) - vs. Minn, vs. Bmore
Bmore (8-6) - vs. NE, @ Cincy

As long as Baltimore doesn't get 10 wins, we win tiebreakers over Indy and Cincy (head to head and conference) to gain the #2 seed against those teams. If Bmore does get 10 wins and wins the division, you need Indy at 10 wins to make the conference record be the focus tiebreaker, which Miami would win at 9-3 (Indy 8-4, Bmore 8-4). Miami would have a first round bye, and then have a home game against the highest seed remaining of the teams who won on wildcard weekend.

#3 Seed (home game on wildcard weekend)- Similar to the #2 Seed, you would need New England to lose their final 2 games. Then either Indy or Cincy would have 11 wins (win out), or Baltimore wins out and Indy loses out. Baltimore would have the #2 seed and Miami would have the #3 seed and play the #6 seed (Wildcard Winner from Baltimore/Cincy/New England)

#4 Seed (home game on wildcard weekend) - Similar to the #2 and #3 Seed, you would need New England to lose their final 2 games. Then both Indy and Cincy would have 11 wins (win out), or Baltimore wins out and Indy wins out. Indy would have the #2 seed, Baltimore the #3 seed and Miami would have the #4 seed and play the KC/Denver division runner up.

#5 Seed (road game on wildcard weekend) - Miami can no longer get the #5 seed. This will either go to Denver or Kansas City as one of those teams will win their division while the other team will be the highest seeded Wild Card team and take the #5 seed.

#6 Seed (road game on wildcard weekend)- Still the most likely scenario as New England just needs to win 1 of their final 2 games (@ Bmore, vs. Buff) and it would automatically make us the #6 seed. Nothing else really matters here. We would go on the road to play the #3 Seed on wildcard weekend.


9-7

Miami could only get the #6 seed at 9-7. The only teams in the mix in this scenario is the Bmore/Cincy division runner up and San Diego (who would be eliminated, but could help in getting us in).

With the Jets loss to Carolina, a 9-7 Miami team is in the clear to be the only team in the AFC East to contend for the final wildcard spot as the Jets can only finish 8-8.

The easiest way would be for Baltimore to finish 8-8 (lose their final 2 games). Miami would be the #6 seed.

Assuming an 8-8 Baltimore team, Miami wins a tiebreak over a 9-7 San Diego team because of the head to head win earlier in the year.

If Cincy loses out to go 9-7 and Baltimore loses next week against New England but beats Cincy in week 17 to go 9-7, Baltimore would win the AFC North division and Miami wins a wildcard tiebreak over Cincy.


There is also one scenario that would require San Diego winning out to finish 9-7 and then Baltimore winning against New England but losing against Cincy to finish 9-7. That would mean Baltimore would only have 7 conference wins and Miami would have 8 and Miami would win the conference tiebreak (San Diego would only have 6 conference wins).

Obviously Miami loses the head to head tiebreak with Baltimore if they are the only 2 teams to finish 9-7.

It goes without saying, If Baltimore (2-0) and Cincy (1-1) finish with 10 wins we are eliminated from the playoff picture.

8-8

Miami can still get the 6 seed if they lose out and finish 8-8. Teams in the mix include Bmore/Cincy/Pittsburgh division runner ups, San Diego and the Jets. Miami at 8-8 would need a few things to happen. Obviously you need to win a divisional tiebreak first. That means the Jets need to lose another game to finish 7-9. If Miami loses @ Buffalo next week and the Jets win vs. Cleveland . . . that week 17 (Jets @ Fins) game is essentially for 2nd place in the AFC East and the right to move on to conference tiebreaks to make the playoffs. The loser would be eliminated. Jets would own the divisional record tiebreak as they would be 3-3 and Miami would be 2-4.

A great thing about an 8-8 tiebreak is, it could potentially introduce more teams into the tiebreaking scenario . . . and Miami's awesome conference record is a major advantage in that battle. Miami WINS every tiebreak against all teams that are potentially 8-8 except Baltimorre. They own the head to head tiebreakers against San Diego and Pittsburgh and would have 7 conference wins while nobody else could have more than 6.

If Baltimore finishes 8-8, you could still get in by A. Pittsburgh winning out . . . which Pittsburgh would win any divisional tiebreak over Baltimore based on common games (which is more valuable than conference record when settling divisional tiebreakers). If Pittsburgh can't play a factor, San Diego finishing 8-8 would enter the picture and Miami's 7 conference wins vs. Baltimore's 6 conference wins gets them in, regardless of the head to head tiebreaker that Baltimore owns over us (San Diego would only have 5 conference wins).


San Diego can still go 9-7 also . . . which obviously makes 8-8 not good enough for Baltimore or Miami as they would get the #6 seed.

Key Games:

Week 16

Miami @ Buffalo -

New England @ Baltimore -

Cleveland @ NYJ -

Minnesota @ Cincinnati -

San Diego @ Oakland -

Pittsburgh @ Green Bay -

Indy @ KC -

Denver @ Houston -

Week 17

NYJ @ Miami -

Buffalo @ NE -

Baltimore @ Cincinnati -

KC @ San Diego -

Jacksonville @ Indy -

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh -

Denver @ Oakland -

Final Tidbit

MIAMI CAN CLINCH A PLAYOFF SPOT IN WEEK 16 in the following scenario:


Miami wins @ Buffalo next week
Baltimore loses at home against New England AND Cincinnati loses at home against Minnesota

In this scenario, Miami would be 9-6, Cincy would be 9-6 and Baltimore would be 8-7. Miami would automatically qualify because the week 17 Bmore/Cincy matchup would be a winner in / loser out situation. If Cincy wins, they win the north at 10-6. Baltimore would be 8-8 which isn't good enough over a 9 win Miami team. If Baltimore wins, they win the north at 9-7 with a tiebreaker over Cincy and even if Miami loses against the Jets in week 17, a 9 win Miami owns the tiebreak over a 9-7 Cincy team and a potential 9-7 San Diego team.
 
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DolphinzD

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Nice write-up.....thanks for all the info!!

And lol at the fact that the Dolphins still haven't been eliminated from the #2 seed (far-fetched, but still mathematically possible). Can you imagine this team getting a bye and a second-round home game??
 

MarinoEqualsGod

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Isn't it also possible to clinch a playoff spot next week with a win and a Cincy loss to the Vikings?
 

LoneyROY7

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Win and we're in. Gotta love it.

Time to crush the Bills and Jets.
 

Kdawg954

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Isn't it also possible to clinch a playoff spot next week with a win and a Cincy loss to the Vikings?

No, Cincy could still win week 17 and we could still lose week 17, giving them 10 wins and us 9 wins.

The only way to clinch next week is by us winning and Baltimore losing tonight and next week. We would have 9 wins, Baltimore could only get 8 and we have the tiebreaker over San Diego if they get to 9 wins.
 

MarinoEqualsGod

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No, Cincy could still win week 17 and we could still lose week 17, giving them 10 wins and us 9 wins.

The only way to clinch next week is by us winning and Baltimore losing tonight and next week. We would have 9 wins, Baltimore could only get 8 and we have the tiebreaker over San Diego if they get to 9 wins.

But if Cincy wins in week 17, then Baltimore would finish with 8 wins (if they lose tonight as you had in that scenario). We'd have 9 and would win a tiebreak with San Diego. No one else could get to 9 wins. Am I seeing this correctly?
 

Kdawg954

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But if Cincy wins in week 17, then Baltimore would finish with 8 wins (if they lose tonight as you had in that scenario). We'd have 9 and would win a tiebreak with San Diego. No one else could get to 9 wins. Am I seeing this correctly?

Remember, Baltimore only has 7 wins . . . so if they lose tonight and next week, they would still only have 7 wins. If we win next week we would have 9 wins, which would eliminate the Ravens from the playoff race as they can't catch a current 9 win Bengals team for the division or a potential 9 win Dolphin team, that beats Buffalo next week, for the wildcard. We would own the tiebreak over a potential 9 win San Diego team.

On a little bit of a down note, clinching next week means we can't win the division (New England would have 11 wins).
 

Kdawg954

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If Miami wins the division, Cincy wins next week and Baltimore wins out, New England is eliminated from the playoffs.
 
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dolphans1

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I just heard Brian Billick just say on NFL Network he doesn't think Miami will get in and the Baltimore will win out and get the 6th spot.

So now I am confused, do we get in if we go 10-6, even if Baltimore goes 10-6?



If you aren't believers in the 2013 Miami Dolphins after winning on the road in Pittsburgh and at home against the New England Patriots to snap a 7 game losing streak, it's time to start believing. Philbin, Tannehill and company have gotten over bullygate and have seemingly used it as motivation to become serious contenders at making a run at a playoff spot.

Let's take a closer look at the possibilities (will do an update after the Ravens/Lions game):

FIRST OFF, AFTER THE BENGALS LOSS TO THE STEELERS LAST NIGHT . . . WE OFFICIALLY CONTROL OUR OWN DESTINY TO THE PLAYOFFS. WIN OUT AND WE ARE IN. I know everybody has been stressing the Lions/Ravens game, but that Steelers win allows for a 3 way tie scenario between Bmore/Cincy/Us in which we take the wildcard with a tiebreak over Cincy while Bmore would take the division.

Here are the possible records and how we would look:

10-6

I will say it one more time, A 10-6 Miami team is officially in the playoffs. Win out and you are in the dance.

#1 Seed (home field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first round bye) - Miami can no longer get the #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Both Denver and KC have 11 wins and Miami can only get 10.

#2 Seed (first round bye and home game in the divisional round) - This scenario is actually more realistic this week so I will go into detail. First off, New England would need to lose their final 2 games. That would tie them with the Dolphins in the division, and Miami would win the division via tiebreaker of better division record (4-2 for us and 3-3 for them). Once that is done, the combo of Indy/Cincy/Bmore would have to have 10 wins or less.

Indy (9-5) - @KC, vs. Jville
Cincy (9-5) - vs. Minn, vs. Bmore
Bmore (7-6) - @ Det, vs. NE, @ Cincy

As long as Baltimore doesn't get 10 wins, we win tiebreakers over Indy and Cincy (head to head and conference) to gain the #2 seed against those teams. If Bmore does get 10 wins and wins the division, you need Indy at 10 wins to make the conference record be the focus tiebreaker, which Miami would win at 9-3 (Indy 8-4, Bmore 8-4). Miami would have a first round bye, and then have a home game against the highest seed remaining of the teams who won on wildcard weekend.

#3 Seed (home game on wildcard weekend)- Similar to the #2 Seed, you would need New England to lose their final 2 games. Then either Indy or Cincy would have 11 wins (win out), or Baltimore wins out and Indy loses out. Baltimore would have the #2 seed and Miami would have the #3 seed and play the #6 seed (Wildcard Winner from Baltimore/Cincy/New England)

#4 Seed (home game on wildcard weekend) - Similar to the #2 and #3 Seed, you would need New England to lose their final 2 games. Then both Indy and Cincy would have 11 wins (win out), or Baltimore wins out and Indy wins out. Indy would have the #2 seed, Baltimore the #3 seed and Miami would have the #4 seed and play the KC/Denver division runner up.

#5 Seed (road game on wildcard weekend) - Miami can no longer get the #5 seed. This will either go to Denver or Kansas City as one of those teams will win their division while the other team will be the highest seeded Wild Card team and take the #5 seed.

#6 Seed (road game on wildcard weekend)- Still the most likely scenario as New England just needs to win 1 of their final 2 games (@ Bmore, vs. Buff) and it would automatically make us the #6 seed. Nothing else really matters here. We would go on the road to play the #3 Seed on wildcard weekend.


9-7

Miami could only get the #6 seed at 9-7. The only teams in the mix in this scenario is the Bmore/Cincy division runner up and San Diego (who would be eliminated, but could help in getting us in).

With the Jets loss to Carolina, a 9-7 Miami team is in the clear to be the only team in the AFC East to contend for the final wildcard spot as the Jets can only finish 8-8.

The easiest way would be for Baltimore to finish 8-8 or less. Miami would be the #6 seed.

Assuming an 8-8 or less Bmore team, Miami wins a tiebreak over a 9-7 San Diego team because of the head to head win earlier in the year.

If Cincy loses out to go 9-7 and Baltimore wins 2 of 3 to go 9-7, Baltimore would win the AFC North division and Miami wins a wildcard tiebreak over Cincy.


There is also one scenario that would require San Diego winning out to finish 9-7 and then Baltimore winning 2 of 3, with one of those wins being against Detroit. That would mean Baltimore would only have 7 conference wins and Miami would have 8 and Miami would win the conference tiebreak.

Obviously Miami loses the head to head tiebreak with Baltimore if they are the only 2 teams to finish 9-7.

If Baltimore finishes 9-7 after losing tonight to Detroit, and SD is 9-7, Miami would lose the tiebreak to Baltimore because SD would be eliminated by only having 6 conference wins, while Bmore and Miami would have 8, and then Baltimore would win the head to head over Miami.

It goes without saying, If Baltimore (3-0) and Cincy (1-1) finish with 10 wins we are eliminated from the playoff picture.

8-8

Miami can still get the 6 seed if they lose out and finish 8-8. Teams in the mix include Bmore/Cincy/Pittsburgh division runner ups, San Diego and the Jets. Miami at 8-8 would need a few things to happen. Obviously you need to win a divisional tiebreak first. That means the Jets need to lose another game to finish 7-9. If Miami loses @ Buffalo next week and the Jets win vs. Cleveland . . . that week 17 (Jets @ Fins) game is essentially for 2nd place in the AFC East and the right to move on to conference tiebreaks to make the playoffs. The loser would be eliminated. Jets would own the divisional record tiebreak as they would be 3-3 and Miami would be 2-4.

A great thing about an 8-8 tiebreak is, it could potentially introduce more teams into the tiebreaking scenario . . . and Miami's awesome conference record is a major advantage in that battle. If Baltimore were to lose out and go 7-9, Miami WINS every tiebreak against all teams that are 8-8. They own the head to head tiebreakers against San Diego and Pittsburgh and would have 7 conference wins while nobody else could have more than 6.

If Baltimore finishes 8-8, you could still get in by A. Pittsburgh winning out . . . which Pittsburgh would win any divisional tiebreak over Baltimore based on common games (which is more valuable than conference record when settling divisional tiebreakers). If Pittsburgh can't play a factor, you could also hope Baltimore beats Detroit, but loses to NE and Cincy . . . keeping them at 6 conference wins. Then San Diego finishing 8-8 would enter the picture and Miami's 7 conference wins vs. everybody else's 6 conference wins gets them in, regardless of the head to head tiebreaker that Baltimore owns over us.

If Pittsburgh doesn't win out and Baltimore loses tonight, but wins 1 of their final 2 games, and San Diego doesn't win out and goes 8-8 / 7-9 . . . Baltimore would win the tiebreak over Miami and San Diego in similar fashion to the 9-7 scenario as SD would be eliminated via conference record and Baltimore owns tiebreak over Miami from head to head.

San Diego can still go 9-7 also . . . which obviously makes 8-8 not good enough for Baltimore or Miami as they would get the #6 seed.


Key Games

Week 15

Baltimore @ Detroit -

Week 16

Miami @ Buffalo -

New England @ Baltimore -

Cleveland @ NYJ -

Minnesota @ Cincinnati -

San Diego @ Oakland -

Pittsburgh @ Green Bay -

Indy @ KC -

Denver @ Houston -

Week 17

NYJ @ Miami -

Buffalo @ NE -

Baltimore @ Cincinnati -

KC @ San Diego -

Jacksonville @ Indy -

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh -

Denver @ Oakland -

Final Tidbit

MIAMI CAN CLINCH A PLAYOFF SPOT IN WEEK 16 in the following scenario.


Miami wins @ Buffalo next week
Baltimore loses @ Detroit tonight and @ New England next week
 

MarinoEqualsGod

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Remember, Baltimore only has 7 wins . . . so if they lose tonight and next week, they would still only have 7 wins. If we win next week we would have 9 wins, which would eliminate the Ravens from the playoff race as they can't catch a current 9 win Bengals team for the division or a potential 9 win Dolphin team, that beats Buffalo next week, for the wildcard. We would own the tiebreak over a potential 9 win San Diego team.

On a little bit of a down note, clinching next week means we can't win the division (New England would have 11 wins).

Your scenario is correct, but we DO have a 2nd clinching scenario next week, as I originally suspected. If Baltimore does indeed lose tonight, they can win next week and we can still clinch. In that scenario, we beat Buffalo and Cincy loses to Minnesota. That would put Miami at 9-6, Cincy at 9-6 and Baltimore at 8-7 heading into the final game. It wouldn't matter what we do against the Jets in the final week because Baltimore and Cincy play each other. A Cincy win would give them the division at 10-6, we'd get the 6 seed at 9-7 (if we lose to the Jets) and Baltimore would be out at 8-8. A Baltimore win would put all 3 teams at 9-7, Baltimore would win that division, but we'd get the 6 seed in the head to head tiebreak with Cincy. San Diego is irrelevant because we own the head to head with them and they have an awful conference record. Understand??
 
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