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Well Tannenbaum is not picking the players just yet, Hickey is, I still trust him. Philbin sucks at a lot of things and is very set on his ways but there's a lot of management things he does well. IMO he would probably be a better GM, VP or Quality Control than coach but we have to hope he succeeds as unlikely as it may seem.
Lazor, Tannehill, Miller, Landry, James, Albert; if he recovers, Pouncey; to a degree, Williams; in his limited role, Simms; in his limited role, Clay; if resigned, Wallace if he screws his head on right, are quite a few bright spots on offense. Then Shelley Smith is at least solid at LG.. That's 2; at least 1 great starting OTs, 7-8 good to very good starters sprinkled everywhere else on offense, one solid, promising LG and 2 promising back ups.
The offense is almost ready. All we need is a starting WR; whether it be a #1, #2 or maybe even #3 if we keep Wallace, cut Hartline and trust Landry to be the #2, a starting RG and I'd love to bring a tall seam busting TE and move Clay to HB/FB. I wouldn't blame them if they didn't resign Clay and drafted or signed an HB/FB on the cheap. I think we should have Clay or any actual FB on the roster but wouldn't blame them if we didn't, we hardly use one either way.
Hickey, Philbin and we all know that if we are getting anywhere that's gonna be thanks to this offense, more specifically, it will be on Ryan Tannehill. We should leverage that, we should build around that, create a synergy where talent feeds off talent. Neither Tannehill or Miller will accomplish anything behind a poor O line, nor can Tannehill succeed with subpar receivers. Forget about the defense. Just cover the roles needed and roll with it. Don't over invest on 'balance'
With that said, here comes my dream offseason. Listed in chronological order, as in FA, draft and June 1st FAs, in that order.
Let's start with the cuts and no re-signs.
Colledge, Moore, Satele, Moreno, Daniel Thomas, Fox, LaMichael James, all walk on offense and Odrick, Michael Thomas, Trusnik, Delmas, Wilson, Stanford, Sheppard, Freeny, Kovacs walk on defense. Cut Ellerbe for $5.65M savings, Brian Hartline for $3.15, Cortland Finnegan for $5, Brandon Gibson for $3.26, Fields for $3.11, Garner for $1.65, Mike Gillislee for $544K, the rest don't really matter if kept or cut, their places will be taken by similarly priced bums either way. Except Dallas Thomas and perhaps Caleb Sturgis, not worth a roster spot. I will assume neither Matthews or Wallace will be cut simply cause we need them and they are under contract, period. Matthews will leave when his contract and RFA tender expire and Wallace will be gone next year. Wheeler will be gone in June 1st as it doesn't make sense to cut him earlier.
That's $22 million total savings plus $3M in June for Wheeler. I would be tempted to push Ellerbe and Hartline onto June 1st but we need the money to sign FAs.
Resigns
Tender Shelby who is an RFA. Shelby will probably be offered a contract but he's still not worth the $2.03M the second round tender would cost. I guess it would be up to whether we keep or trade Wake. If Wake is kept, we will offer minimum tender and just let him go if offered a contract. If Wake restructures it would make more sense to tender Shelby a second as not too much would be spent in the position. For the sakes of this projection I'll just assume Wake restructures and we tender Shelby a second and keep them both.
I'm unsure on Thomas. Having ended the season in IR plus the cost of the tender just makes me think Aikens would be better off at FS than as a 5th corner and that I'd rather get a 5th corner in the draft than tender Thomas. Either way if we tender him he can be cut anytime, no cap hit. In this projection I will just assume we don't tender him.
Charles Clay should be resigned. I would rather play him as an HB/FB/TE and get a tall TE but I don't want to rid Tannehill from his weapons but add on to them. He'll at least cost $4M in a 4 year contract with a total of $24M and $12M guaranteed and that's cause he had a down year.
On to Wake's restructure. He has two years left at $9.7 and $9.8M. We could roll $3.2M over and add them as guaranteed money in a third year worth $10M. That way he either stays another year at top salary or if he's cut he still gets his $3.2 million either way but after two years from now, once we have fixed the cap mess Ireland left us in. I'm sure Hickey will pitch this and I think it's very likely Wake will agree if that means better players around him and a shot at the playoffs.
Believe it or not I would also like to restructure Starks rather than keeping Odrick. It would be cheaper, would give us an out soon and even though Odrick was much better against the run Starks had more sacks. I would offer Starks $3M and roll the other $2M onto next year as guaranteed money in a $6M deal. Again if he gets cut he gets his $2M and if kept he plays for a good salary.
If I were Hickey I would try similar things with Misi and Earl Mitchell but I will assume not since that would first, be too much luck we can restructure so many players and we are likely cleaning house with a bunch of contracts again next year and we can't swallow any more dead money. I would probably part ways with Misi after this year either way. He'll thrive somewhere as a 3-4 thumper. We could save some money extending Pouncey but a year to prove himself might be better business.
Free Agency
I think you should look at the market first of all. The market at WR will be pretty decent but we already have crazy money tied up on WRs. The TE market also looks good while the draft looks dry. I would love Rob Housler for about $2M here. I would not pay a RB unless Moreno is willing to take a 1yr $1M contract. A back up QB will be needed and that specific market will be boiling with WC/Spread QBs willing to take small contracts. Tarvaris Kackson, Jason Campbell, Case Keenum, Scott Tolzien, Matt Flynn, Colt McCoy, will all be available and willing to take around $1M. I'd prefer Keenum or McCoy. The OG market looks good, I would be looking for a proven starter here so around $4M might be needed in a multi-year contract. I'd love any of Orlando Franklin, Clint Boling and Mike McGlynn. At OT we need a back up/insurance for Albert swing tackle. King Dunlap is my choice, he would cost around $3M in an $8M, two year contract with $3M guaranteed.
On defense the FS market is dry unless we bring Delmas back. I think we are looking at the draft here. At CB, I think we should pick up a veteran nickel and challenge/back up/insurance behind Taylor as the #2. Cromartie is Coyle's type of CB for sure and shouldn't cost anymore than $3M in a 2 yr $8M contract. I really think we must put Jordan on the field and SOLB is my bet here. Misi and Jenkins return and we already are wasting a lot of dead money at LB. I would draft a MLB to groom behind Misi. DT is overflowing with talent on FA and I really think we should bring one big bodied DT to shield our LBs and stop the run. A two gap, two down kind of DT. Terrance Knighton and Terrence Cody, interest me. Either would be about $5M on $30M 4yr contracts.
That adds up to a total of $22M including tenders and resigns. $5.2M savings on Wake and Starks, minus about $6 million tops on draft picks, plus the $4.7 we already are under the cap. We'd be left with about $4M plus the $3M we'd save on Wheeler come June 1st. We'd be rolling $4M only though since the $3M already count as next year savings but we can use them if there are any good cuts at LB, OL or RB.
The Draft
That leaves holes at WR, power RB, and O line depth on offense and FS, developmental MLB, 5th corner, K and P.
1st round
DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville. It only makes sense, looking at the market to go WR here. No QB, RB, or OT needed; no TE worth a 1st and heck no OG please. Landon Collins will likely be gone and projects more as a SS to me. No CB worth taking either. No MLB worth taking. DT taken care of in FA in this projection.
2nd round
Derron Smith, FS, Fresno State. Only starting spot left vacant. Holliman will be gone by our pick in the second, Jalen Mills is a girl beater; so no thanks, Karl Joseph is stone handed and we seem to like ballhawks in the secondary and Kurtis Drummond is very up and down. It comes down to Smith and Anthony Harris. Harris played mostly SS in college so Smith is more used to the position.
3rd round
Ramik Wilson, ILB, Georgia. Coyle's type of ILB despite having played in a 3-4 at Georgia.
4th round
Jarvis Harrison, OG, Texas A&M. Interior line depth, great size and athleticism. Familiarity with the system.
5th round
Max Garcia, C/OG, Florida. Interior line depth.
6th round
Kenny Hilliard, RB, LSU. Big power back.
7th round
Demetrius Nicholson, CB, Virginia. 5th corner. Great ability but spent most of the season and last injured.
UDFA
Get the best UDFA K and P.
June 1st
Hard to predict but the good thing is we will be in position to make a play should anyone interesting become available. Cut Wheeler.
Lazor, Tannehill, Miller, Landry, James, Albert; if he recovers, Pouncey; to a degree, Williams; in his limited role, Simms; in his limited role, Clay; if resigned, Wallace if he screws his head on right, are quite a few bright spots on offense. Then Shelley Smith is at least solid at LG.. That's 2; at least 1 great starting OTs, 7-8 good to very good starters sprinkled everywhere else on offense, one solid, promising LG and 2 promising back ups.
The offense is almost ready. All we need is a starting WR; whether it be a #1, #2 or maybe even #3 if we keep Wallace, cut Hartline and trust Landry to be the #2, a starting RG and I'd love to bring a tall seam busting TE and move Clay to HB/FB. I wouldn't blame them if they didn't resign Clay and drafted or signed an HB/FB on the cheap. I think we should have Clay or any actual FB on the roster but wouldn't blame them if we didn't, we hardly use one either way.
Hickey, Philbin and we all know that if we are getting anywhere that's gonna be thanks to this offense, more specifically, it will be on Ryan Tannehill. We should leverage that, we should build around that, create a synergy where talent feeds off talent. Neither Tannehill or Miller will accomplish anything behind a poor O line, nor can Tannehill succeed with subpar receivers. Forget about the defense. Just cover the roles needed and roll with it. Don't over invest on 'balance'
With that said, here comes my dream offseason. Listed in chronological order, as in FA, draft and June 1st FAs, in that order.
Let's start with the cuts and no re-signs.
Colledge, Moore, Satele, Moreno, Daniel Thomas, Fox, LaMichael James, all walk on offense and Odrick, Michael Thomas, Trusnik, Delmas, Wilson, Stanford, Sheppard, Freeny, Kovacs walk on defense. Cut Ellerbe for $5.65M savings, Brian Hartline for $3.15, Cortland Finnegan for $5, Brandon Gibson for $3.26, Fields for $3.11, Garner for $1.65, Mike Gillislee for $544K, the rest don't really matter if kept or cut, their places will be taken by similarly priced bums either way. Except Dallas Thomas and perhaps Caleb Sturgis, not worth a roster spot. I will assume neither Matthews or Wallace will be cut simply cause we need them and they are under contract, period. Matthews will leave when his contract and RFA tender expire and Wallace will be gone next year. Wheeler will be gone in June 1st as it doesn't make sense to cut him earlier.
That's $22 million total savings plus $3M in June for Wheeler. I would be tempted to push Ellerbe and Hartline onto June 1st but we need the money to sign FAs.
Resigns
Tender Shelby who is an RFA. Shelby will probably be offered a contract but he's still not worth the $2.03M the second round tender would cost. I guess it would be up to whether we keep or trade Wake. If Wake is kept, we will offer minimum tender and just let him go if offered a contract. If Wake restructures it would make more sense to tender Shelby a second as not too much would be spent in the position. For the sakes of this projection I'll just assume Wake restructures and we tender Shelby a second and keep them both.
I'm unsure on Thomas. Having ended the season in IR plus the cost of the tender just makes me think Aikens would be better off at FS than as a 5th corner and that I'd rather get a 5th corner in the draft than tender Thomas. Either way if we tender him he can be cut anytime, no cap hit. In this projection I will just assume we don't tender him.
Charles Clay should be resigned. I would rather play him as an HB/FB/TE and get a tall TE but I don't want to rid Tannehill from his weapons but add on to them. He'll at least cost $4M in a 4 year contract with a total of $24M and $12M guaranteed and that's cause he had a down year.
On to Wake's restructure. He has two years left at $9.7 and $9.8M. We could roll $3.2M over and add them as guaranteed money in a third year worth $10M. That way he either stays another year at top salary or if he's cut he still gets his $3.2 million either way but after two years from now, once we have fixed the cap mess Ireland left us in. I'm sure Hickey will pitch this and I think it's very likely Wake will agree if that means better players around him and a shot at the playoffs.
Believe it or not I would also like to restructure Starks rather than keeping Odrick. It would be cheaper, would give us an out soon and even though Odrick was much better against the run Starks had more sacks. I would offer Starks $3M and roll the other $2M onto next year as guaranteed money in a $6M deal. Again if he gets cut he gets his $2M and if kept he plays for a good salary.
If I were Hickey I would try similar things with Misi and Earl Mitchell but I will assume not since that would first, be too much luck we can restructure so many players and we are likely cleaning house with a bunch of contracts again next year and we can't swallow any more dead money. I would probably part ways with Misi after this year either way. He'll thrive somewhere as a 3-4 thumper. We could save some money extending Pouncey but a year to prove himself might be better business.
Free Agency
I think you should look at the market first of all. The market at WR will be pretty decent but we already have crazy money tied up on WRs. The TE market also looks good while the draft looks dry. I would love Rob Housler for about $2M here. I would not pay a RB unless Moreno is willing to take a 1yr $1M contract. A back up QB will be needed and that specific market will be boiling with WC/Spread QBs willing to take small contracts. Tarvaris Kackson, Jason Campbell, Case Keenum, Scott Tolzien, Matt Flynn, Colt McCoy, will all be available and willing to take around $1M. I'd prefer Keenum or McCoy. The OG market looks good, I would be looking for a proven starter here so around $4M might be needed in a multi-year contract. I'd love any of Orlando Franklin, Clint Boling and Mike McGlynn. At OT we need a back up/insurance for Albert swing tackle. King Dunlap is my choice, he would cost around $3M in an $8M, two year contract with $3M guaranteed.
On defense the FS market is dry unless we bring Delmas back. I think we are looking at the draft here. At CB, I think we should pick up a veteran nickel and challenge/back up/insurance behind Taylor as the #2. Cromartie is Coyle's type of CB for sure and shouldn't cost anymore than $3M in a 2 yr $8M contract. I really think we must put Jordan on the field and SOLB is my bet here. Misi and Jenkins return and we already are wasting a lot of dead money at LB. I would draft a MLB to groom behind Misi. DT is overflowing with talent on FA and I really think we should bring one big bodied DT to shield our LBs and stop the run. A two gap, two down kind of DT. Terrance Knighton and Terrence Cody, interest me. Either would be about $5M on $30M 4yr contracts.
That adds up to a total of $22M including tenders and resigns. $5.2M savings on Wake and Starks, minus about $6 million tops on draft picks, plus the $4.7 we already are under the cap. We'd be left with about $4M plus the $3M we'd save on Wheeler come June 1st. We'd be rolling $4M only though since the $3M already count as next year savings but we can use them if there are any good cuts at LB, OL or RB.
The Draft
That leaves holes at WR, power RB, and O line depth on offense and FS, developmental MLB, 5th corner, K and P.
1st round
DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville. It only makes sense, looking at the market to go WR here. No QB, RB, or OT needed; no TE worth a 1st and heck no OG please. Landon Collins will likely be gone and projects more as a SS to me. No CB worth taking either. No MLB worth taking. DT taken care of in FA in this projection.
2nd round
Derron Smith, FS, Fresno State. Only starting spot left vacant. Holliman will be gone by our pick in the second, Jalen Mills is a girl beater; so no thanks, Karl Joseph is stone handed and we seem to like ballhawks in the secondary and Kurtis Drummond is very up and down. It comes down to Smith and Anthony Harris. Harris played mostly SS in college so Smith is more used to the position.
3rd round
Ramik Wilson, ILB, Georgia. Coyle's type of ILB despite having played in a 3-4 at Georgia.
4th round
Jarvis Harrison, OG, Texas A&M. Interior line depth, great size and athleticism. Familiarity with the system.
5th round
Max Garcia, C/OG, Florida. Interior line depth.
6th round
Kenny Hilliard, RB, LSU. Big power back.
7th round
Demetrius Nicholson, CB, Virginia. 5th corner. Great ability but spent most of the season and last injured.
UDFA
Get the best UDFA K and P.
June 1st
Hard to predict but the good thing is we will be in position to make a play should anyone interesting become available. Cut Wheeler.