thedayafter
Pro Bowler
- Joined
- Nov 27, 2004
- Messages
- 1,816
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Polians view of the % in the draft process.... this should cool everybodies heels and spell out how small the difference between success and failure.......
Polian said he has tracked draft choices for 26 years and free-agent signees for 10, and his math shows there is a small but significant margin for error.
Average teams are right 50 about percent of the time. Playoff and Super Bowl teams make the right call 56 or 57 percent of the time. And those teams that keep drafting in the top 10 make the right choice only 42 percent of the time. "You're dealing with humans, so it's not an exact science," Polian said of making the right calls. "But if you bat .560 in the personnel business, you'll be in the playoffs every year."
Polian said he has tracked draft choices for 26 years and free-agent signees for 10, and his math shows there is a small but significant margin for error.
Average teams are right 50 about percent of the time. Playoff and Super Bowl teams make the right call 56 or 57 percent of the time. And those teams that keep drafting in the top 10 make the right choice only 42 percent of the time. "You're dealing with humans, so it's not an exact science," Polian said of making the right calls. "But if you bat .560 in the personnel business, you'll be in the playoffs every year."