You guys have gotta realize the sportsbooks don't like to risk 3 in the NFL. Once a line has been established at 3 it's hellish to move off of that, particularly up. The books are not as reluctant to drift to 2.5 or 2 since 2 is a comparatively dead number. But once you move upward, games can fall 4 very easily so there is more resistance to going up. Plus, the sportsbooks know the wise guys are salivating to pounce on a +3.5 or +4 for huge money if they have already played the other side at -2.5 or -3 or similar, like a cheap money line.
The only time I ever got chewed out by the sportsbook manager while working as sportsbook supervisor was when I used +3.5 on a parlay card on a high profile NFL game that was solid 3 on the board throughout town. I was in charge of making the parlay card numbers early every week. We had a half point card so naturally I couldn't use a solid number. The sportsbook manager always trusted my judgment but when he saw that +3.5 instead of +2.5 he went nuts. Sure enough, the sharp guys played heavily on the +3.5, verifying what the sportsbook manager was worried about. Luckily we were not burned.
Miami is a whispered team on the rise and Pennington gives us more credibility. That prevents a spike in the odds toward the Jets, along with the home September variable that CK mentioned. Right now it's +3 with some places moving the money line toward the Jets, i.e. -3 -120 or even -3 -125. That's becoming more and more common, a safety net for the sportsbooks who don't want to move off 3. If you want the Dolphins it means you can get +3 even money or +3 +105, instead of giving -110.
As always, pay attention to comparative value when wagering. For instance, in this case I'm sure many posters will want to pound their chests and take Miami on the money line, to win straight up. That's stupid in a case like this. The money line will be in the +145 or +150 range. That's not a great deal when you are comparing to +3 -110, considering how often the number 3 comes into play in the NFL. See Miami 2007. When the other option is +3 +105 it's masochistic if you take the money line. The 3 points is worth more than 40 or 45 cents.
BTW, over/under is 36 or 36.5.
