Opinion: Drafting A Qb In 1st Round - Significant Course Altering Event - Lottery Type Player | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Opinion: Drafting A Qb In 1st Round - Significant Course Altering Event - Lottery Type Player

xSxPxHx

xSxPxHx

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As I find myself reading so many articles on what Miami should do regarding picking up a QB, I can't help but wonder that no matter how good your GM and his talent evaluators are if you pick and QB and you miss on the pick, it will set up back many years. If you score big on it then your set up for many years to be successful.

You think of examples such as Aarron Rodgers, Dan Marino, Tom Brady, etc. If GM's knew what they were capable of they would be picked up pretty fast. But the fact is no one knows. Franchises are build on the shoulders of QB's. Yes, Yes the trenches are important as well, don't get me wrong, but the QB is a organization's lottery ticket. And its very seldom you win, just like the real lottery in life.

You have some organizations who will trade and mortgage the organizational's future on QB's such as Washington did with RGIII. Bad ones such as these below:

Raiders, JaMarcus Russell (No. 1 overall in 2007)
Lions, Joey Harrington (No. 3, 2002)
Cardinals, Matt Leinart (No. 10, 2006)
Jaguars, Blaine Gabbert (No. 10, 2011)

RYAN LEAF FOR GOD SAKES!!! (just to name a few)

Its really a dangerous game for GM's selecting their first QB. So there's no guarantee on what will happen. We can do very well building through the trenches and getting WR's but everyones's job hinges on the QB. So cheers to Miami winning the lottery ticket for when they pick their QB!

#finsup
 
As I said before I don't think a swing and a miss will effect us much this year or next and def won't set us back because we're in the back seat as it is.

If we love a QB in 2019 get him because we will be in the same or better spot next year if we strike whiff. If we strike out for the next two years t would hurt but then we'll be a cap friendly, bad team with a high pick in rd 1 each year. The situation we are getting us in is way better than the old uncap friendly, 7-8 win years. I really think the poor drafting as well as FA player acquisition ,and esp not looking at QBS was a huge mistake and we're paying for it now.
 
My view has always been if a team doesn't have a top 10 QB then that team has QB problems and QB is that teams #1 position in need of improvement.

If a team has a top 5 talent then that team will make playing in meaningful games in January a near annual event as long as the organization is not garbage.
 
xSxPxHx said:
As I find myself reading so many articles on what Miami should do regarding picking up a QB, I can't help but wonder that no matter how good your GM and his talent evaluators are if you pick and QB and you miss on the pick, it will set up back many years. If you score big on it then your set up for many years to be successful.

You think of examples such as Aarron Rodgers, Dan Marino, Tom Brady, etc. If GM's knew what they were capable of they would be picked up pretty fast. But the fact is no one knows. Franchises are build on the shoulders of QB's. Yes, Yes the trenches are important as well, don't get me wrong, but the QB is a organization's lottery ticket. And its very seldom you win, just like the real lottery in life.

You have some organizations who will trade and mortgage the organizational's future on QB's such as Washington did with RGIII. Bad ones such as these below:

Raiders, JaMarcus Russell (No. 1 overall in 2007)
Lions, Joey Harrington (No. 3, 2002)
Cardinals, Matt Leinart (No. 10, 2006)
Jaguars, Blaine Gabbert (No. 10, 2011)

RYAN LEAF FOR GOD SAKES!!! (just to name a few)

Its really a dangerous game for GM's selecting their first QB. So there's no guarantee on what will happen. We can do very well building through the trenches and getting WR's but everyones's job hinges on the QB. So cheers to Miami winning the lottery ticket for when they pick their QB!

#finsup
Click to expand...

Careful. Some misunderstand your point. I agree, too many make it sound like Miami will buy a can of coffee. 'Just get your QB and everything else will take care of itself.' Or, 'move up and get your QB for the next 15 years.' That's not reality. As you (and many others) have noted, the odds are better at failing at getting the 'next' QB. Some interpret that as don't try. Nope. It's just injecting a little reality into the discussion.

I, and most, WANT to get the next Marino. The disagreement is how much to give up. I'm willing to move up to #11 (example only). I see too much risk giving up this year's 1st and 2nd and next year's 1st and 2nd to draft the next Jamarcus Russell. In the end, it's about the amount of risk each of us is willing to take. Not 'willing to be mediocre for the next 20 years.' Not 'happy with the status quo.' It's a matter of degree.

I know this much. There are various wordings in the QB search. 'If the FO is certain they've found the guy, they should do whatever it takes to get him.' 'If they do their research and have decided on who can lead Miami to the SB, just go get him.' Yup, all we have to do is trust the FO. Ummm, except when their pick wouldn't have been MY pick. Then it becomes 'they COULD HAVE HAD Joe Montana.' And, heaven forbid, if the pick is the next Bortles, 'they're IDIOTS.' That's how far 'if the FO thinks . . . ' will go.

As for building the trenches, while I agree, the critical variable is whether Miami gets a QB THIS year or next. (All rationale people know moving up THIS year means no QB next year.) This will be argued until Miami's on the clock. I admit, I have no idea. Nonetheless, if the QB is next year, I agree. If the QB is this year, I expect the '20 cap to shrink as pieces are added to support the new darling.
 
artdnj said:
As I said before I don't think a swing and a miss will effect us much this year or next and def won't set us back because we're in the back seat as it is.

If we love a QB in 2019 get him because we will be in the same or better spot next year if we strike whiff. If we strike out for the next two years t would hurt but then we'll be a cap friendly, bad team with a high pick in rd 1 each year. The situation we are getting us in is way better than the old uncap friendly, 7-8 win years. I really think the poor drafting as well as FA player acquisition ,and esp not looking at QBS was a huge mistake and we're paying for it now.
Click to expand...

Never thought of it that way. That is actually not a bad idea. I think drafting a QB in lower rounds is always good as well in case 1 pans out..you never know
 
superphin said:
Picking a bust at QB isn't as bad as it used to be now that rookies aren't making an insane amount of money. It's a lot easier nowadays to cut your losses.
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You're right. Look how fast Rosen is out. If we miss this year. Least we will know that he ain't the real deal and go after Trevor Lawrence in 2021
 
fansinceGWilson said:
Careful. Some misunderstand your point. I agree, too many make it sound like Miami will buy a can of coffee. 'Just get your QB and everything else will take care of itself.' Or, 'move up and get your QB for the next 15 years.' That's not reality. As you (and many others) have noted, the odds are better at failing at getting the 'next' QB. Some interpret that as don't try. Nope. It's just injecting a little reality into the discussion.

I, and most, WANT to get the next Marino. The disagreement is how much to give up. I'm willing to move up to #11 (example only). I see too much risk giving up this year's 1st and 2nd and next year's 1st and 2nd to draft the next Jamarcus Russell. In the end, it's about the amount of risk each of us is willing to take. Not 'willing to be mediocre for the next 20 years.' Not 'happy with the status quo.' It's a matter of degree.

I know this much. There are various wordings in the QB search. 'If the FO is certain they've found the guy, they should do whatever it takes to get him.' 'If they do their research and have decided on who can lead Miami to the SB, just go get him.' Yup, all we have to do is trust the FO. Ummm, except when their pick wouldn't have been MY pick. Then it becomes 'they COULD HAVE HAD Joe Montana.' And, heaven forbid, if the pick is the next Bortles, 'they're IDIOTS.' That's how far 'if the FO thinks . . . ' will go.

As for building the trenches, while I agree, the critical variable is whether Miami gets a QB THIS year or next. (All rationale people know moving up THIS year means no QB next year.) This will be argued until Miami's on the clock. I admit, I have no idea. Nonetheless, if the QB is next year, I agree. If the QB is this year, I expect the '20 cap to shrink as pieces are added to support the new darling.
Click to expand...


Very good Reply Sir, Thank you for this. You hit critical parts of what Im trying to get across.
 
I don't like the idea of trading any draft capital away to move up for any QB in this year's draft. It is more important for them to build up the lines and look to a franchise QB in 2020. I like how this off season has shaped up and how they are primed to be players next season with draft picks and salary cap. Hopefully they can remain disciplined and not do anything stupid with an eye on 2020.
 
superphin said:
Picking a bust at QB isn't as bad as it used to be now that rookies aren't making an insane amount of money. It's a lot easier nowadays to cut your losses.
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Also you don’t typically have to groom them for a year before you see them play anymore.
 
Take a QB every year until you have 3 potential starters.
If you draft a guy in the fourth or fifth round and he isnt impressing you by his third year, dump him and take another.
You dont lose much with this strategy... most of the guys in these rounds fail to shine anyway.
 
Michigan Mike said:
I don't like the idea of trading any draft capital away to move up for any QB in this year's draft. It is more important for them to build up the lines and look to a franchise QB in 2020. I like how this off season has shaped up and how they are primed to be players next season with draft picks and salary cap. Hopefully they can remain disciplined and not do anything stupid with an eye on 2020.
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I wouldn't trade up for any of these QB's either but if Haskins or Locke some how slip to #13 I say go for it and take one.
 
one or two of these qb will be available. u just got put these guy in best system that work for them. OC must adjust to rookie qb,. not qb adjust to OC systems. it doesn't matter who you pick. it going be learning curve for a rookie qb in nfl. the bottom line it all depend on OC/qb coach.
 
Obviously, the faster you can begin to work with your QB whether he sits or starts, the better. The faster you know what you have, the faster you can pivot if it's not working. That's one of the upsides to drafting one this year.
 
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