Out of the box, combine results = NFL success?

[NBP81]

Since its combine week, I thought I'd dive into how combine results actually correlate to NFL production. While I'm only getting started on this, there's really not a whole lot that clearly tips the scale one way or another at first glance. Some of it though, does seem to matter.

Before we get into this I posted a poll to gauge interest on the subject. This is quite time consuming and if nobody gives a **** I just wont keep doing those. So if you like that stuff, just click on the position groups that you'd like me to do this sort of analysis on and you'll effectively tell me 1) You're interested in that sort of analysis and 2) What positions you are interested in.

This one's about offensive tackles, I would've started with QB but the honest to god truth is that there was really nothing to talk about in there... The combine for QBs just doesnt tell you anything(Sorry, I dont have access to reliable hand size measurements data).

I didnt go with my previous way of doing things in this one... Instead of getting [Elite, Good, Jag, Bust] categories, we'll be going with over 75th percentile vs. the rest. You can effectively view these groups as good vs. bad... I'd rather have less groups with more sample size for this kind of thing, is another way to put it...

Tackles

Size matters?

Here are the charts illustrating size for both groups. The good group looks alot more focused around ~ 6'4" 315 while the other group is kind of all over the place, which is to be expected.

Good:



Not so good:



Bench press matters?

Average is about the same for both parties... Though the distribution is skewed towards more is better... Nothing under ~18



3 cones? meh... Although theres a pretty clear threshold... Absolutely nothing over ~8.25 here for the good ones...



Shuttle matters...



Example of something that doesnt matter... Vertical...



Everything remaining looks like the last one, trying to draw conclusions on these wouldnt be wise. Also keep in mind I dont have data on wingspan, arm lenght and hand size so I cant comment on those.

Hope you guys find this useful.

 

[clownfish]

Wow. That’s amazing stuff. Love the ‘out of the box’ thinking in your other thread, too. I picked our 3 biggest needs, besides QB. IOL, RB, and Edge.

 

[NBP81]

Wow. That’s amazing stuff. Love the ‘out of the box’ thinking in your other thread, too. I picked our 3 biggest needs, besides QB. IOL, RB, and Edge.

Thanks! OL is kind of the boring one(But also the #1 need for the Fins outside of QB), we'll get into positions where we can relate combine results to actual NFL production like Sacks, INTs and TDs...

 

[j-off-her-doll]

These look great! Any reason you didn't include the 40 and 10-yard split?

 

[Crump]

@NBP81 I really wished you were my neighbor. I feel like I'm bombing the ever living **** out of stats and be 3 credits shy of my business degree. I cant even enjoy your posts like this anymore cause it makes me feel like i want to jump off my shop, which considering its probably about 24 feet tall i dont know what the probability factor is that i just die or i break ****

 

[LargoFin]

100 agree with the approach

 

[LargoFin]

These look great! Any reason you didn't include the 40 and 10-yard split?

They do make much difference. In other words, there is no clear pattern over the years. But there is definitely a pattern with 3 cone and running over 8.25, or under, however you want to look at it.
There are however very few good tackles who run over 5.2 40, so you can make that filter as well.

 

[Fin-Loco]

Wow. Thanks for doing this. Still over my head but you put a lot of work in and it should be helpful to some for sure.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Since its combine week, I thought I'd dive into how combine results actually correlate to NFL production. While I'm only getting started on this, there's really not a whole lot that clearly tips the scale one way or another at first glance. Some of it though, does seem to matter.

Before we get into this I posted a poll to gauge interest on the subject. This is quite time consuming and if nobody gives a **** I just wont keep doing those. So if you like that stuff, just click on the position groups that you'd like me to do this sort of analysis on and you'll effectively tell me 1) You're interested in that sort of analysis and 2) What positions you are interested in.

This one's about offensive tackles, I would've started with QB but the honest to god truth is that there was really nothing to talk about in there... The combine for QBs just doesnt tell you anything(Sorry, I dont have access to reliable hand size measurements data).

I didnt go with my previous way of doing things in this one... Instead of getting [Elite, Good, Jag, Bust] categories, we'll be going with over 75th percentile vs. the rest. You can effectively view these groups as good vs. bad... I'd rather have less groups with more sample size for this kind of thing, is another way to put it...

Size matters?

Here are the charts illustrating size for both groups. The good group looks alot more focused around ~ 6'4" 315 while the other group is kind of all over the place, which is to be expected.

Good:

View attachment 38666

Not so good:

View attachment 38667

Bench press matters?

Average is about the same for both parties... Though the distribution is skewed towards more is better... Nothing under ~18

View attachment 38677

3 cones? meh... Although theres a pretty clear threshold... Absolutely nothing over ~8.25 here for the good ones...

View attachment 38678

Shuttle matters...

View attachment 38679

Example of something that doesnt matter... Vertical...

View attachment 38680

Everything remaining looks like the last one, trying to draw conclusions on these wouldnt be wise. Also keep in mind I dont have data on wingspan, arm lenght and hand size so I cant comment on those.

Hope you guys find this useful.

I'm good for LB, but will admit it should be difficult since there are different flavors. I agree on QB. IMO, the trait most influential is mental quickness and I know of no way to measure that.

 

[NBP81]

These look great! Any reason you didn't include the 40 and 10-yard split?

I dont have 10-yard split data, I took a quick glance on the 40 a missed the skew, thanks for making me take a 2nd look.

 

[Crump]

making me take a 2nd look.

everything is within 2 standard deviations of the mean, so that worked out well, i would be about 10 now a days

 

[NBP81]

There are however very few good tackles who run over 5.2 40, so you can make that filter as well.

5.20 is actually smack in the middle of the distribution for good Tackles, if you're going to make filters with 40 time, it seems more appropriate to put it around ~ 5.40.

 

[Scrap]

18 reps of bench press at 315 is weak. I’m 215 and that’s about what I can do right now. My best was 23 years ago at about 210.

All that said, bench press is not a very functional movement so much as a talking point. I recall a study that showed that a human can only really push about 40% of their body weight from a standing (and unbraced) position.

I’d be more interested in deadlift or squat numbers for athletic performance.

 

[NBP81]

DEs

Im going to do DEs and OLBs separately and I might try to separate OLBs into 2 different categories though I'll cross that bridge when I get there.

Size: Good on top, not so good bottom.



40 yards dash:




Vertical: Pretty similar for both groups.



Bench:



Broad jump:



3 Cone:



Shuttle:



I'd say 40 yard and bench seem to be the 2 measures where there is a viable shift between the 2 groups. Also notice that while both groups are somewhat centered in the shuttle drill, there's a heavy concentration of good players around ~4.4.

 

[NBP81]

DEs

These are the linear model plots illustrating Sacks per game relative to combine results. (Players who appeared in more than 45 games since 2005)





These models wouldnt be useful for any kind of precise predictions. But you can still see where there's a relationship and where there clearly isnt. The shuttle for exampe is showing minimal relationship when its comes to sack production at the next level...