Out of the box, useful concepts for building great NFL teams... | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Out of the box, useful concepts for building great NFL teams...

While I agree with this as a goal, NO tam has quality depth at every position all the way down
Well in the Pats case if you can get your all star hof qb to take 1/3 of his value while being in the leadership seats of Players Assocaition and not take flak from the players / then you can certainly build allocate money solidifying a depth roster with the extra millions afforded you
 
And Ronnie Lott said on radio Sunday morning during his ESPN interview that while Jim Burt was knocking heads literally with teammate Charles Haley - the skilled players of the SB winning teams trumped the dysfunction of the locker room - Lott said game day everyone knew what to do when the whistle blew - Lott said we went out there and we played like the all stars we knew we were

So personalities matter both coaching and players - you can’t just throw people together based on need you need to find the players who have high emotional intelligence at game time -
ie players who can relax their stupid decisions of the past week and players who can forgive the idiots who made bad decisions
 
I’ve spent quite a lot of time the last couple of months trying to understand how the NFL works. Most of what I’ve found I’ve been arguing to death around here for quite some time now, but some of it is hard to get across when splattered over multiple conversations and different threads. I expect to get bombarded in this thread and that’s fine. You probably won’t agree with most things I have to say here but my hope is that I can provide and few things that will make you view things differently.

The Fins are really in a special position this time around as they have the opportunity to start over with tons of assets and space under the cap. They’re basically an expansion team on steroids. In this post I will just illustrate some of the flaws in thinking that plague a lot of teams in the NFL and how the Fins can avoid them and then explain some of the edges that exist in the NFL and how they can exploit them.

“We are 1 or 2 players away”

This is the most obvious flaw around in the NFL. Teams are trying to win next season and it causes them to make crucial mistakes that they weren’t making when actually building that team to be 1 or 2 players away, it causes them to go flat out bonkers and puts them in all or nothing mode where everything falls apart when that window closes.

“Defense wins championships”, “Passing is crucial for scoring points and winning games” are heavily debated here and both hold some truth, but reality is great teams win championships. Most focus on how to win next season instead of focusing on how to build great teams that last.

Spend most of your time trying to illustrate what a good decision looks like in every aspect of building a team, and then just focus on making the right call at every decision point, regardless of the outcomes. Outcomes are full of noise and are very likely to steer you in the wrong direction more often than not.

I think most GMs truly believe that their edge lies in their ability to identify talent better than other teams. I might catch some flak here but I think that thinking is fools gold and very likely to be a losers game. Ever heard something around the lines of “80% of people believe they are above average drivers ” ? Well Im flat out certain that this also applies to NFL GMs.

Instead of trying to outsmart everyone, look for unexploited edges that are splattered all over the place in all aspects of team building and football strategy and pound them.

The NFL draft

“Best player available”, “Filling needs” and a combination of both is outdated. Ever since they installed the rookie wage scale, the draft has been a completely different animal, yet most teams still draft the same way they used to before that event. It isn’t about filling needs and trying to find the best players any more, it’s about getting value.

The reason I’m saying that is because draft picks have actually become free cap space tickets. Literally. The rookie you pick will get paid a pre determined amount regardless of the position he plays. In a way, having a starting QB(picked in round 1 or 2) on his rookie contract will save you from around 12M per to 8M per for 5 years depending on his draft slot.

For comparison sake, a RB drafted in the same rounds will actually net you at least -3M per against the cap since they are such an underpaid position. I picked the most extreme case to illustrate my point but it’s absolutely something teams should consider.

Ignoring this concept because you are 1-2 players away doesn’t make it any less of a mistake, filling teams needs or trying to outsmart everyone thinking you can ID good players better than anyone while ignoring value is a mistake. Small mistakes add up pretty fast in the NFL and this is how you end up in cap hell.

I’ve already gone deeper on this subject, if you’re interested to read more about it, the following posts explain the concept in more depth and also include visuals.






“Offensive Coordinators”

J-off-her-doll is actually the one who caught my attention on this subject and while I haven’t done any research about it, I feel the role is just to important these days to keep it out of the discussion.

This is all opinion but I feel the role is mismanaged in general. Most of them hold the responsibility of teaching players how to execute different plays on top of having to elaborate an overall offensive strategy and execute/call that strategy in game.

Call me crazy but those 2 roles are so far from another when it comes to the skillset required to be good at one or the other that Im sort of baffled as to why teams feel the need to give both those roles to one person. Again, this is only my opinion but teams should absolutely explore the possibility that they would be better off having 2 specialists for the job.

Get the best teacher you can get your hands on to teach the players how to execute your plays, and go out and get the best strategist you can get your hands on to build and execute your strategy in game. The offensive coordinator and the playcaller.

Most NFL teams do stupid things

… And it’s understandable. Most of these guys get hired and have so little time to show results that the long term is not something they can afford. They flat out start behind and are most often forced into making costly mistakes that accumulate fast and quickly become a big part of their demise.

I think the Fins FO and CS just might have a decent enough leach that they’d have the time to really build a strong foundation of making good decisions that profit the long term as well as the not so long term. Don’t try and “win this season”, make decisions that are optimal at every turn and the great team will follow, and it will be a sustainable one.

Further discussion

While I’m pretty much done with this post, there are many many more edges to be exploited in the current NFL, those were just some obvious ones to me. Free agency and in game strategies are full of them and I’d encourage anyone who has some ideas on this subject to post them in this thread.

I don’t expect anyone to agree with everything I just said, TBH I expect that alot of you will flat out throw rocks at me and that’s fine. My hope is that some take some nuggets in there and it gets you to think about how the NFL truly works behind the scenes.
I wish I could hug you for this post - now if only People would freakin read it instead of going all Tribal on this board -

And the Pats also made hungry GMs pay who thought they were one player away by trading out of the round and compiling value picks - for a few years they had two firsts and would trade out for value and certainly Grier and Flo know it
 
Well in the Pats case if you can get your all star hof qb to take 1/3 of his value while being in the leadership seats of Players Assocaition and not take flak from the players / then you can certainly build allocate money solidifying a depth roster with the extra millions afforded you

Yup. Even then, they don't have quality backup at every position
 
This is such a great post because it really got me thinking. This site has discussed, as an example, the price to trade up for a quarterback. If that quarterback turns out to be a top 10 caliber quarterback, Miami has given itself a 15-20 year window to compete. That's how important the quarterback position is now and so maybe giving up 2-3 #1 picks isn't such a high price to pay.

Every 10 years or so you get a Trent Dilfer or a Nick Foles winning the super bowl, but that is not common. It's usually the best of the best. The Peyton Mannings, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady's of the NFL.

One last point, I'm not sure it makes sense to draft positions that aren't "premium positions" with high picks. Those are quarterback, pass rusher, corner, left tackle, wide receiver. If there's a Zeke Elliott type running back, you make an exceptions. But those premium positions are the ones you pay and it's hard to find good talent there in free agency.
 
This is such a great post because it really got me thinking. This site has discussed, as an example, the price to trade up for a quarterback. If that quarterback turns out to be a top 10 caliber quarterback, Miami has given itself a 15-20 year window to compete. That's how important the quarterback position is now and so maybe giving up 2-3 #1 picks isn't such a high price to pay.

Every 10 years or so you get a Trent Dilfer or a Nick Foles winning the super bowl, but that is not common. It's usually the best of the best. The Peyton Mannings, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady's of the NFL.

One last point, I'm not sure it makes sense to draft positions that aren't "premium positions" with high picks. Those are quarterback, pass rusher, corner, left tackle, wide receiver. If there's a Zeke Elliott type running back, you make an exceptions. But those premium positions are the ones you pay and it's hard to find good talent there in free agency.

As a group, iagree. But, as individual best of the best how many SBs did Warner, Brees, and Rodgers win? The same as Dilfer and Foles.
Remember, I want a top QB, but the names above indicate an elite QB doesn't get frequent SB appearances. Playoff appearances, yes. But some claim anything less than a SB win is losing
 
As a group, iagree. But, as individual best of the best how many SBs did Warner, Brees, and Rodgers win? The same as Dilfer and Foles.
Remember, I want a top QB, but the names above indicate an elite QB doesn't get frequent SB appearances. Playoff appearances, yes. But some claim anything less than a SB win is losing
That's a good point. In it's simplest form,I think it's really the coach and quarterback combo.

Bellichick/Brady
Peyton/Brees
Carroll/Wilson
Reid/Mahomes
Harbaugh/Jackson
Tomlin/Big Ben

Those teams have stability.
 
That's a good point. In it's simplest form,I think it's really the coach and quarterback combo.

Bellichick/Brady
Peyton/Brees
Carroll/Wilson
Reid/Mahomes
Harbaugh/Jackson
Tomlin/Big Ben

Those teams have stability.

Don't want to beat a dead horse, but Br÷s and Rodgers only made it with top 5 Ds, so it can take more than a top HC and QB.
 
This is such a great post because it really got me thinking. This site has discussed, as an example, the price to trade up for a quarterback. If that quarterback turns out to be a top 10 caliber quarterback, Miami has given itself a 15-20 year window to compete. That's how important the quarterback position is now and so maybe giving up 2-3 #1 picks isn't such a high price to pay.

Every 10 years or so you get a Trent Dilfer or a Nick Foles winning the super bowl, but that is not common. It's usually the best of the best. The Peyton Mannings, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady's of the NFL.

One last point, I'm not sure it makes sense to draft positions that aren't "premium positions" with high picks. Those are quarterback, pass rusher, corner, left tackle, wide receiver. If there's a Zeke Elliott type running back, you make an exceptions. But those premium positions are the ones you pay and it's hard to find good talent there in free agency.
For those of you that found the value of draft picks thing interesting, I built a small web app to play around with... just input a pick# the position dropbox will show you the odds of getting different tiers of that position group at that pick, the other dropbox below is team needs, this will upgrade the 2 graphs below to show you the EV above(or below) average of each different groups given teams needs given the pick you selected. For the DBs, assume CBs have more value and safeties a tad less.

This is a free server so it might take a couple seconds to load and if it doesnt work, try again at the begining of feb. :lol:

Here's the link: https://draftev-app.herokuapp.com/
 
Don't want to beat a dead horse, but Br÷s and Rodgers only made it with top 5 Ds, so it can take more than a top HC and QB.
Bad officiating costs Brees another super bowl appearance, but yes it really comes down to team and is ultimately at team game. If you can get those premium positions filled with good players that is huge. Teams can only sign so much talent, so having role players or players who can play multiple positions helps as well.

Building a team that dominates on defense is so difficult now, though, especially long-term. That's why I think it's those premium positions and fill in with low cost/versatile players.
 
As a group, iagree. But, as individual best of the best how many SBs did Warner, Brees, and Rodgers win? The same as Dilfer and Foles.
Remember, I want a top QB, but the names above indicate an elite QB doesn't get frequent SB appearances. Playoff appearances, yes. But some claim anything less than a SB win is losing
A point often overlooked and well stated. I agree with much of what has been said in this thread, but the flipside of getting good draft value, is the draft over-value, which leads to reaching, which at its core has a similar outcome as drafting for need. The QB examples are excellent for this. Miami needs a QB, QB is a high value position,as it is the most important on the field. I think everyone should agree on this as a general rule. Having said that, value still needs to be a part of this equation, which is why fansinceGWilson's post is so relevant. It establishes that a good, or even generational QB, may give you a shot to be more competitive overall, but it isn't enough. There MUST be more. You actually need a great team.

This leads us back to reaching. Yes Miami needs a QB. Yes, it is a valuable position. That doesn't mean that you trade away a draft for the possibility to land one. Is it worth losing 3 picks to take a high injury risk player who may never actually take an in game snap? That doesn't represent value, it is high risk gambling at the expense of two other competitive prospects. Also, reaching for a lower rated QB at your highest pick if they are valued lower is also a poor value. Remember, it is the highest valued position because it has the highest bust factor. Value means sometimes you collect more picks instead of reaching and getting a player where it actually makes sense. If that means you need to wait another year for your QB, so be it.
 
The NFL draft

“Best player available”, “Filling needs” and a combination of both is outdated. Ever since they installed the rookie wage scale, the draft has been a completely different animal, yet most teams still draft the same way they used to before that event. It isn’t about filling needs and trying to find the best players any more, it’s about getting value.

Oh my GOD.

THANK YOU. Ive been saying this forever. It's about value. Maximize your currency, and do whatever you can. The rest of your post is flat out fantastic as well but when I saw this I literally said out loud to myself "Thank you" as I read this.
 
Also NBP81 that is easily one of the best (edit: well constructed, well written, strong position) posts Ive seen on any dolphins board.
 
Miami needs a QB, QB is a high value position,as it is the most important on the field.
Yes!
Remember, it is the highest valued position because it has the highest bust factor.
You were correct with your first crack at it, QB's bust factor is right inline with other positions. What makes it a good bet is the incredible value of actually hitting. This is not an exact science by any means but QBs are so far ahead that there's just no argument to be made here.
Value means sometimes you collect more picks instead of reaching and getting a player where it actually makes sense. If that means you need to wait another year for your QB, so be it.
I agree with this, the main reason I am advocating getting the QB now is about position, the cost might be high to land a QB now, are you willing to risk the Fins having a mediocre season next year and drafting at pick 15+? What do you think the cost will be then?

As for reaching, once you have QB solved, there are plenty of position groups that will be good value, if there are really none of them all that appealing, you could consider getting value by either trading for future picks, or just drafting high value positions were you are already set. The latter would either solidify an already solid unit, or allow you to trade solid high value vets for more draft capital and at the same time reseting the rookie contract clock. Win-win-win
 
Back
Top Bottom