Parallel Universe--Assume Tua was not under Contract beginning in 2024

[Finlawyer]

Tua currently has this franchise wrapped around his little fingers at least for 2025. He consumes $39M in cap space next year. His salary towers over everyone else.

Everyone regrets signing Tua to a 4-year extension in 2024 because he missed 6 games.

Our regret should be reexamined. For shiits and giggles, let's assume Tua had not been extended and played out his 5th year option and balled.

Letting Tua walk after 2024 would have doomed the rebuild and McDaniel and Grier. Cap space without a starting caliber QB is not going to attract free agents or win many games.

Tagging Tua for 2025 would produce a single-year cap hit of almost $50M. Extending Tua after 2025 would be even more expensive assuming he had played well--which he did when healthy and had time to throw.

So Grier, Tua and McDaniel are now metaphorically tied at the hip for 2025 (no pun intended). If Tua fails to justify his keep, he will be gone after 2025 with a dead cap hit.

Some guarantees to star players expire after 2025. At a minimum, the dead cap hits will be smaller after 2025.

We have to sign a vet QB and draft one for development. We need to assume Tua is gone after 2025. If he plays well behind a revamped OL, he can be extended with some cap relief.

Obviously, the fantasy of a Super Bowl for 2025 is gone. We went the route of the Rams and failed.

We need to rebuild through the draft for 2025 and beyond. Hopefully, Armstead returns with a lower salary. The guards must be upgraded. The DL and safeties must be upgraded.

I would trade Reek after June 1 if we get two 2nd round picks for 2026.

If Weaver is hired to be a head coach, we get another 3rd round pick for 2025.

As a fan base, it is not all doom and gloom.

My belief is that Ross pressured Grier to win a Super Bowl as soon as possible after Flo was fired. This explains the free agent infusion of Hill, Ramsey, and Chubb. Extending Hill and Ramsey in 2024 was to avoid cutting Hill because his cap hit for 2025 would have been $56M unless he was extended. Hill knows 2025 is likely his last season with the Fins because his cap hit in 2026 is almost $50M.

The worst sins for 2024 was believing in Skylar and using the sub-par Guards. Grier is right to blame Tua for his egocentric playing style. Grier's drafting will determine if he and McDaniel stay or go after 2025.

 

[The Goat]

Well thought-out.

Alas, as I said in a similar thread, revisionist history only works for things that actually happened. However, in that scenario, I feel pretty confident that the people who have been the loudest all season about how much they revile this franchise that they also love...would still be the loudest about how much they revile this franchise that they also love.

 

[Feverdream]

Tua was always a mistake... he's small, he's always been fragile, and even though he's one of the fastest processors I've ever seen, he's too dumb to know that real QBs throw the ball away sometimes... and umm... don't slide head first.

So yes, I REALLY, REALLY wish we'd have declined to extend him and forced him to either play or hold-out... which would have forced a trade.

We're stuck now... at least one, and probably two more years of never knowing if our QB will answer the bell.

It was a bad draft pick.

 

[39wildman]

Tua currently has this franchise wrapped around his little fingers at least for 2025. He consumes $39M in cap space next year. His salary towers over everyone else.

Everyone regrets signing Tua to a 4-year extension in 2024 because he missed 6 games.

Our regret should be reexamined. For shiits and giggles, let's assume Tua had not been extended and played out his 5th year option and balled.

Letting Tua walk after 2024 would have doomed the rebuild and McDaniel and Grier. Cap space without a starting caliber QB is not going to attract free agents or win many games.

Tagging Tua for 2025 would produce a single-year cap hit of almost $50M. Extending Tua after 2025 would be even more expensive assuming he had played well--which he did when healthy and had time to throw.

So Grier, Tua and McDaniel are now metaphorically tied at the hip for 2025 (no pun intended). If Tua fails to justify his keep, he will be gone after 2025 with a dead cap hit.

Some guarantees to star players expire after 2025. At a minimum, the dead cap hits will be smaller after 2025.

We have to sign a vet QB and draft one for development. We need to assume Tua is gone after 2025. If he plays well behind a revamped OL, he can be extended with some cap relief.

Obviously, the fantasy of a Super Bowl for 2025 is gone. We went the route of the Rams and failed.

We need to rebuild through the draft for 2025 and beyond. Hopefully, Armstead returns with a lower salary. The guards must be upgraded. The DL and safeties must be upgraded.

I would trade Reek after June 1 if we get two 2nd round picks for 2026.

If Weaver is hired to be a head coach, we get another 3rd round pick for 2025.

As a fan base, it is not all doom and gloom.

My belief is that Ross pressured Grier to win a Super Bowl as soon as possible after Flo was fired. This explains the free agent infusion of Hill, Ramsey, and Chubb. Extending Hill and Ramsey in 2024 was to avoid cutting Hill because his cap hit for 2025 would have been $56M unless he was extended. Hill knows 2025 is likely his last season with the Fins because his cap hit in 2026 is almost $50M.

The worst sins for 2024 was believing in Skylar and using the sub-par Guards. Grier is right to blame Tua for his egocentric playing style. Grier's drafting will determine if he and McDaniel stay or go after 2025.

Grier and McDaniel is going get fired soon. They should off never draft Tua. Flores was some what right about Tua. Drafting another qb. Wouldn't have hurt rebuild either.

 

[Finlawyer]

Tua was always a mistake... he's small, he's always been fragile, and even though he's one of the fastest processors I've ever seen, he's too dumb to know that real QBs throw the ball away sometimes... and umm... don't slide head first.

So yes, I REALLY, REALLY wish we'd have declined to extend him and forced him to either play or hold-out... which would have forced a trade.

We're stuck now... at least one, and probably two more years of never knowing if our QB will answer the bell.

It was a bad draft pick.

Drafting him was a mistake. But extending him was forced by circumstance and to protect Grier and McDaniel from Ross' insatiable greed for a Super Bowl. Ross' tampering cost us a 1st round pick. The trade for Hill was comparable to trading our whole draft for Ricky Williams. Ross' greed forced such a bad decision for a diva midget. Grier wasted too many picks when we had some. It has been a shiit show since Flo was fired but the time to tear down is after 2025 depending on what happens.

 

[Bob512]

Tua currently has this franchise wrapped around his little fingers at least for 2025. He consumes $39M in cap space next year. His salary towers over everyone else.

Everyone regrets signing Tua to a 4-year extension in 2024 because he missed 6 games.

Our regret should be reexamined. For shiits and giggles, let's assume Tua had not been extended and played out his 5th year option and balled.

Letting Tua walk after 2024 would have doomed the rebuild and McDaniel and Grier. Cap space without a starting caliber QB is not going to attract free agents or win many games.

Tagging Tua for 2025 would produce a single-year cap hit of almost $50M. Extending Tua after 2025 would be even more expensive assuming he had played well--which he did when healthy and had time to throw.

So Grier, Tua and McDaniel are now metaphorically tied at the hip for 2025 (no pun intended). If Tua fails to justify his keep, he will be gone after 2025 with a dead cap hit.

Some guarantees to star players expire after 2025. At a minimum, the dead cap hits will be smaller after 2025.

We have to sign a vet QB and draft one for development. We need to assume Tua is gone after 2025. If he plays well behind a revamped OL, he can be extended with some cap relief.

Obviously, the fantasy of a Super Bowl for 2025 is gone. We went the route of the Rams and failed.

We need to rebuild through the draft for 2025 and beyond. Hopefully, Armstead returns with a lower salary. The guards must be upgraded. The DL and safeties must be upgraded.

I would trade Reek after June 1 if we get two 2nd round picks for 2026.

If Weaver is hired to be a head coach, we get another 3rd round pick for 2025.

As a fan base, it is not all doom and gloom.

My belief is that Ross pressured Grier to win a Super Bowl as soon as possible after Flo was fired. This explains the free agent infusion of Hill, Ramsey, and Chubb. Extending Hill and Ramsey in 2024 was to avoid cutting Hill because his cap hit for 2025 would have been $56M unless he was extended. Hill knows 2025 is likely his last season with the Fins because his cap hit in 2026 is almost $50M.

The worst sins for 2024 was believing in Skylar and using the sub-par Guards. Grier is right to blame Tua for his egocentric playing style. Grier's drafting will determine if he and McDaniel stay or go after 2025.

Solid post

My concern is hitting on those draft picks. Do that, and you get younger and cheaper.....don't do that and we fail again

 

[Bob512]

Tua was always a mistake... he's small, he's always been fragile, and even though he's one of the fastest processors I've ever seen, he's too dumb to know that real QBs throw the ball away sometimes... and umm... don't slide head first.

So yes, I REALLY, REALLY wish we'd have declined to extend him and forced him to either play or hold-out... which would have forced a trade.

We're stuck now... at least one, and probably two more years of never knowing if our QB will answer the bell.

It was a bad draft pick.

So now what?

I thoroughly enjoy your draft analysis and roster evaluation, so what is your opinion now that the Tua situation is here, how do we handle it these next two years?

What does the QB2 situation look like?

 

[Springveldt]

I think if Tua wasn't extended last year then there is a good chance he would have played like 2023 and thrown the ball away at every opportunity to make sure he makes it through the season to get the extension this year, which would have been even costlier. Getting the extension allowed for him to make the bonehead, head first dive plays to try and prove to everyone that he was worth the extension. Or maybe he is just as dumb as a box of rocks and will never learn how to protect himself.

I don't doubt Tua's ability when he's on the field, I still believe we can win with him but how much he is on the field is the big question. Availability is the best ability as they say and it's something Tua unfortunately doesn't have. In that sense, he's starting to look like a bad pick.

I'm guessing the plan is to shore up the OL at all costs, get some better blocking TE's and then pray that 6 or 7 of your 10 best players aren't injured by the end of the season which is what has happened for a few years now. Also pray that Tua finally learns to chuck it away but I wouldn't hold my breath on that.

 

[Mach2]

Well thought-out.

Alas, as I said in a similar thread, revisionist history only works for things that actually happened. However, in that scenario, I feel pretty confident that the people who have been the loudest all season about how much they revile this franchise that they also love...would still be the loudest about how much they revile this franchise that they also love.

While it is a "what if" after the fact, it isn't really "revisionist" with the ppl who were against it and expressed concerns/reasons at the time. It's more of an "I told you so".

 

[lynx]

Hindsight on Tua's contract is pretty easy to do now for all kinds of people but when it happened - that was the market for a QB of that caliber. I don't blame the front office for signing him to that contract, that's exactly what should have happened considering the other QB signings that were happening. Imagine if Tua held out and the Dolphins started the year 1-3, EVERYONE would be blaming Grier for not signing him

The worst thing surrounding that contract was Tua playing injury-free in 2023. Suddenly, it looked like Tua was concussion-free, playing smarter and doing everything right including learning how to fall, it was all smoke and mirrors.

Tua is a great QB but severely injury-prone and will be a injury risk every season, that's the reality we have to roll with in 2025, and it sucks

 

[The Goat]

While it is a "what if" after the fact, it isn't really "revisionist" with the ppl who were against it and expressed concerns/reasons at the time. It's more of an "I told you so".

My point was that you cannot revise something that didn't happen.

EDIT: I see what you're saying. He never stated it was revisionist in the first place. Got it.

 

[dolphinheel]

The biggest problem with this entire mess is that our offensive system is tailor made for Tua. If he goes down there just aren’t many other QBs who can do what he does. I don’t like it. I also don’t like that we cannot run the ball or get one yard when we need it because Tua is too fragile to QB sneak. It’s a shitshow run by a moron.

 

[vagrantprodigy]

I would trade Reek after June 1 if we get two 2nd round picks for 2026.

If Weaver is hired to be a head coach, we get another 3rd round pick for 2025.

Two things:

We don't get any picks for Weaver unless he stays in 2025, and then leaves for a Head Coaching job. You have to be with a team for two years in order to qualify.

Also, no way we get 2 2nds for Hill. I'm think a third and a fifth at best.

 

[LargoFin]

Yes, the Dolphins need to rebuild. Again. You got that right in that post. That's the point. And not with this QB who has failed, not with this owner and GM who have repeatedly failed. Proven failures.

 

[Finlawyer]

Two things:

We don't get any picks for Weaver unless he stays in 2025, and then leaves for a Head Coaching job. You have to be with a team for two years in order to qualify.

Also, no way we get 2 2nds for Hill. I'm think a third and a fifth at best.

Hill's trade value plummets after 2025. Grier may keep him for his own self-interest. Agency costs arise when there are competing interests between shareholders and management.