PBP: Gase building momentum to avoid a repeat of 2008’s one-hit playoff wonder | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

PBP: Gase building momentum to avoid a repeat of 2008’s one-hit playoff wonder

Perfect72

It's Only Happened ONCE!
Joined
May 18, 2004
Messages
1,448
Reaction score
665
Location
Florida
We’ve seen this before, the resurgent season leading to a rare playoff berth under a rookie head coach, followed by a lopsided and disheartening loss in the opening round.

The question is whether the 2016 Miami Dolphins will keep it going, building on this sudden turnaround in ways that the 2008 team did not.

Before screaming out in the affirmative and listing Adam Gase as the prime reason to believe in the sustainability of this mission, take a minute to consider the parallels.

Tony Sparano’s first Dolphins team dug itself an early hole, starting the 2008 season at 2-4, but then hit a hot streak to win the AFC East at 11-5. It really seemed at that moment that the new regime, directed by Pro Football Hall of Famer Bill Parcells, had things figured out. Turns out they didn’t.

Also, the 2008 Dolphins had a quarterback they liked quite a bit in Chad Pennington, but injuries caught up to him early in the next season and the position soon turned into a long-term mess. Ryan Tannehill isn’t supposed to be in for the same kind of trouble now, but quarterback play will remain a bit of a sore issue until he’s back to his old self this summer, and sturdy enough to stand up to more hits.

Gase’s Dolphins have a rising star at running back with Jay Ajayi, and that points to the kind of overall offensive reliability that any playoff team needs. Sparano started losing his momentum in 2009, however, in spite of Ricky Williams rushing for 1,121 yards and scoring 13 total touchdowns.

A defense grown old and thin also contributed to Sparano losing steam. Gase has much work to do in the same area.

Then there’s the draft, another essential component to avoiding the mirage of a one-hit wonder playoff season.

The 2009 Dolphins got an instant starter at cornerback (Vontae Davis) with the 25th overall pick but wasted a second-rounder on Pat White, a quarterback experiment gone wrong. Gase, who picks 22nd overall in 2017, figures to be smarter than that, and he, in partnership with general manager Chris Grier and executive vice president Mike Tannenbaum, will need to be, just as they were in 2016.

This is not a perfectly-matched template between the last two Dolphins playoff teams by any means, just a reminder that stringing together winning seasons is normally the practice of the NFL’s elite. Miami could eventually regain that status, but as a No. 6 playoff seed that just got outscored 65-26 in its last two games, nothing can be taken for granted.

After all, half of the playoff teams from last season failed to make the postseason in 2016, and that includes the two teams that played in the Super Bowl, Denver and Carolina.
For any franchise to make it to double-digit wins, a ton of good things need to happen.

Sparano’s playoff team, for instance, turned the ball over just 13 times during the regular season, an incredibly efficient number, but shot all the way up to 29 the following year and finished 7-9.

In the case of Gase’s Miami debut, think in particular of all those tight wins, including two in overtime and another on a two-touchdown rally in the game’s final five minutes. Playoff teams survive those close calls, but it’s a tightrope act without a net.


More at LINK: http://dailydolphin.blog.palmbeachp...oid-a-repeat-of-2008s-one-hit-playoff-wonder/
 
If they don't want a total collapse next season they have to be smart in free agency and the draft. We don't need a RB even though this draft is full of really good ones...so don't waste a pick on one. Just one example.
 
I can understand the article and we can't take anything for granted. We need to make each pick on the draft count and hit at least 2 free agents as well

Ozzy rules!!
 
A lot of Miami's wins this year were similar to that 2008 season. As a matter of fact, that year Miami also played the NFC West, the Ravens, and Chargers. A notable difference is their defense. In that 38-13 win over NE (with Cassell) they only allowed 215 total yards. They followed that up by allowing 202 yards to San Diego in a 17-10 win. Two other games of note: wins over Oakland and Buffalo. In the Oakland game, Miami allowed 199 total yards and in the 2nd Buffalo game, they allowed 163 total yards.

Defense. How about it?
 
A lot of Miami's wins this year were similar to that 2008 season. As a matter of fact, that year Miami also played the NFC West, the Ravens, and Chargers. A notable difference is their defense. In that 38-13 win over NE (with Cassell) they only allowed 215 total yards. They followed that up by allowing 202 yards to San Diego in a 17-10 win. Two other games of note: wins over Oakland and Buffalo. In the Oakland game, Miami allowed 199 total yards and in the 2nd Buffalo game, they allowed 163 total yards.

Defense. How about it?

we give up those totals in a half now on the regular
 
It's not totally unfair to draw parallels, but the big difference is that Sparano was a cog in the larger Parcells machine. A machine that was breaking down since the engineer of it all was losing interest and connection with the league. Gase is entirely his own success here. He might even be at odds with management as far as his level of competency. But roster decisions do need to improve or this success won't be sustainable.
 
The 2016 draft was unusually geared toward offense.Tunsil, Howard, Drake, Carroo, Grant, Jordan Lucas S, Brandon Doughty, THomas Duarte, WR. That is just one defensive player that didn't see playing time. I understand we got a LB and a CB prior to the draft, however, aside from Tunsil they did not take BPA and they did not even draft for need. That will need to be improved upon this year.
 
There are several encouraging signs that could prevent a regression. We ran the ball nearly 44% of the time, which is an excellent range nowadays, especially if the quarterbacking is not elite.

Philbin was a dunce who thought we should run the ball only 35 or 38% of the time, despite our quarterback level.

Our rushing attempt numbers weren't particularly good but that was due to the strangely low number of snaps overall. That figures to balance out next season, along with overall defense. Just a bit of defensive personnel improvement will push us closer to the middle of the league. However, the third down defense figures to decline.

Tannehill has to keep the YPA where it was this season, if not a slight improvement. Gase's play calling is YPA friendly to moderate quarterbacks, especially given the rushing percentage.

One thing Gase can't do is resort to empty sets under the impression Tannehill is ready for a steady diet of them. Only elite quarterbacks should use empty a high percentage of the time. Phil Simms appropriately spotlighted the early empty set as a mistake for last week, with Matt Moore back there. As Simms said, the defense immediately attacks that set. It doesn't matter what season long splits look like. Do the right thing under scope that includes everyone like you, not fixated on yourself alone. That's why team betting trends are so fragile and unreliable from season to season while angles that apply to any team in a given situation continue to prosper.

I expect we'll dip next season. It is logical and I'll predict that way. But Gase's apparent caliber gives me some hope of avoiding it.
 
There are several encouraging signs that could prevent a regression. We ran the ball nearly 44% of the time, which is an excellent range nowadays, especially if the quarterbacking is not elite.

Philbin was a dunce who thought we should run the ball only 35 or 38% of the time, despite our quarterback level.

Our rushing attempt numbers weren't particularly good but that was due to the strangely low number of snaps overall. That figures to balance out next season, along with overall defense. Just a bit of defensive personnel improvement will push us closer to the middle of the league. However, the third down defense figures to decline.

Tannehill has to keep the YPA where it was this season, if not a slight improvement. Gase's play calling is YPA friendly to moderate quarterbacks, especially given the rushing percentage.

One thing Gase can't do is resort to empty sets under the impression Tannehill is ready for a steady diet of them. Only elite quarterbacks should use empty a high percentage of the time. Phil Simms appropriately spotlighted the early empty set as a mistake for last week, with Matt Moore back there. As Simms said, the defense immediately attacks that set. It doesn't matter what season long splits look like. Do the right thing under scope that includes everyone like you, not fixated on yourself alone. That's why team betting trends are so fragile and unreliable from season to season while angles that apply to any team in a given situation continue to prosper.

I expect we'll dip next season. It is logical and I'll predict that way. But Gase's apparent caliber gives me some hope of avoiding it.

The unbalanced offense with Lamar Miller a capable back did not make sense. It was some sort of modified WCO relying on short passes at the line instead of runs. We played way to close to the LOS and it was just unbearable to watch. I think our offense will only improve in Tannehill's second year in the system, it will move faster.
 
The biggest concern IMO... is that the phins don't do next season what the jest did this past one.

The good news for us is the Jets didn't really address their issues. And the Bills could have been tough but their moves, firing the guy the players liked and doing the QB dirty may sabotage themselves like the Jets did this past offseason. The Jets should have been the team starting over and the Bills should have been the team giving the coach one more year.
 
The 2016 draft was unusually geared toward offense.Tunsil, Howard, Drake, Carroo, Grant, Jordan Lucas S, Brandon Doughty, THomas Duarte, WR. That is just one defensive player that didn't see playing time.

Wait...Howard plays defense, right? He also saw significant playing time.
 
I think a nice start would be to grab a guard in the 1st then go defense pretty much the rest of the way. Re-sign stills and branch if not too steep. Landry and jones too. Imagine when we have Jones, IAQ, kiko, Jenkins, Howard, and Maxwell are all healthy. Pouncey and tannehill back. Its gonna be awesome. We've got a bunch of picks to bring in. If we can get plays out of them like we did with Howard, grant, tunsil...add in the growth of this years rookies. Watch out next year!
 
I think 2008 was unique in that we had an abnormally low amount of TOs, the record at the time, in addition to the soft schedule and a healthy Pennington. I would guess if Pennington had stayed healthy the next year, the team would have still been decent, if not still 11-5.

The team as it looks now overcame TOs, a ton of injuries, but still had a fairly soft schedule. But I wouldn't think it's likely to lose a starting QB, C, 2 S, 2 LB, 2 OL and 2 CBs for as significant an amount of time. Our schedule does look rough though, so I don't think it's unlikely to be 8-8/9-7. Injuries again will play a big role. The depth just has to be slightly better than it has been where we are not plugging in Dallas Thomas, Billy Turner, Rambo off the street, etc. I could see it going the other way and continuing to 10, 11 wins if we get some quality depth or even playmakers in the draft & FA.
 
Back
Top Bottom