PER: Culpepper vs. Carr

[Tailgun]

For those not familiar with this rating system, PER was designed as replacement barometer for the NFL's skewed quarterback rating system. It was formulated by Bud Goode and predicts the winning team more than 80% of the time, including in 18 of the last 22 Suber Bowls. Although I first read about it in the pages of Pro Football Weekly years ago, another article can be found here: A Better Way To Rate NFL Quarterbacks.

One of the greatest statistical indicators of success these days is a team's average of yards per pass attempt. Or in simpler terms, how far do you go when you throw the ball?

Last year, the Super Bowl champion Steelers averaged 7.12 yards per pass attempt, second in the league only to the Colts. Meanwhile, the NFC champion Seahawks ranked fourth at 6.9 yards per attempt. Moreover, of the 12 playoffs teams, 10 averaged more than 6.0 yards per attempt and only five teams that topped that number didn't make the playoffs.

PER is calculated by taking the total passing yardage, subtracting both 50 yards for each interception and the total yardage lost to sacks. Divide that resulting total by the number of pass attempts, plus the total number of sacks. For PER, sacks count as passing plays. The resulting number is the Pass Efficiency Rating for that quarterback.

For example: Rex Grossman; total yardage >> 829 yards, minus 3 INTs (150), minus 10 sack yards = 669. That total is divided by 96 (att 94, sacks 2), yields a PER of 6.97 (rounded up to the nearest tenth of a percent).

A PER of 7.0+ is outstanding; 6.0-6.9 is excellent; 5.0-5.9 is average; 4.0-4.9 is below average; anything below a 4.0 is terrible.

As of Week 3, here are the Passer Efficiency Rating numbers for every starting quarterback in the league.

AFC East
Losman - 5.45
Culpepper - 3.73
Brady - 5.11
Pennington - 6.79

AFC North
McNair - 4.70
Palmer - 4.17
Roethlesberger - 0.95
Frye - 3.29

AFC South
Peyton Manning - 7.14
Leftwich - 3.72
Carr - 5.56
Collins - 2.40

AFC West
Rivers - 7.46
Plummer - 3.63
Huard - 5.02 /Green - 0.89
Walter – 1.0 /Brooks – 1.11


NFC East
McNabb - 7.38
Bledsoe - 4.24
Manning - 4.75
Brunell - 5.60

NFC North
Grossman - 6.97
Johnson - 5.77
Favre - 5.28
Kitna - 5.72

NFC South
Vick - 3.88
Brees - 5.36
Delhomme - 4.38
Simms - 4.57

NFC West
Hasselbeck - 3.52
Bulger- 5.90
Warner - 4.64
Smith - 7.04

 

[OurHeartAndSoul]

Doesn't look too bad allthough the numbers are obviously off with heavy rushing teams.

 

[WestCoast13]

according to this it says culpepper is terrible.... which he has been... so it must be right on haha

 

[Alex44]

according to this it says culpepper is terrible.... which he has been... so it must be right on haha

Culpepper hasnt been terrible, the offensive line has been terrible

Do you look at anything more than stats?

 

[Tailgun]

Doesn't look too bad allthough the numbers are obviously off with heavy rushing teams.

Actually this stat isn't tied directly to rushing totals at all. It's based on the total yards per pass, whether that total derives from 30 pass attempts or 300, the PER is the same.

 

[INPHINITY]

3.73=ouch!

 

[SHEDDAWG DOLFAN]

Culpepper hasnt been terrible, the offensive line has been terrible

Do you look at anything more than stats?

90% true.....but Culpepper has not exactly been steller either.

 

[Tropical Swarm]

Culpepper hasnt been terrible, the offensive line has been terrible

Do you look at anything more than stats?

Daunte makes the line look worse then it really is he takes like 19 seconds to get rid of the ball:rolleyes2

 

[SHEDDAWG DOLFAN]

Daunte makes the line look worse then it really is he takes like 19 seconds to get rid of the ball:rolleyes2

you have got to be kidding!!!!!! The reason he's taking so long to get the ball out is because he's scrambling for his life...The O-line is playing terrible.

 

[Muck]

Man, Roethlisberger needs to sit down. I'll take Charlie Batch for the block.

Matt Hasselbeck's 5 TDs last week almost bring him to Culpepper's level. The flawed QB Rating system says he's an 88.1. This PER forumla is certainly more accurate. :rofl3:

Seriously, nothing is pefect. I'm just having some fun with that fact.

 

[Coral Reefer]

Culpepper hasnt been terrible, the offensive line has been terrible

Do you look at anything more than stats?

Yeah, watching the games would tell the story quite well.
Both have been sucking.

 

[Tailgun]

I was curious to break down the Top 10 team who've allowed the most sacks so far this season, next to their QB's PER:

Miami - 15 sacks, Culpepper -3.73
Oakland - 15 sacks, Walter – 1.0 /Brooks – 1.11
Cleveland - 12 sacks, Frye - 3.29
Detroit - 12 sacks, Kitna - 5.72
Cincinnati - 11 sacks, Palmer - 4.17
St Louis - 10 sacks, Bulger- 5.90
Houston - 9 sacks, Carr - 5.56
New York - 9 sacks, Manning - 4.75
Atlanta - 9 sacks, Vick - 3.88
Arizona - 9 sacks, Warner - 4.64

About half the quarterbacks on this list have decent-to-mediocre PERs despite being under pressure (Carr, Bulger, Kitna, Manning, Warner). The only truly bad quarterbacks on this list are those who both inefficiently move the ball through the air and take a great many sacks. These are Culpepper, Vick, Frye and both QBs for the Raiders.

Although the Dolphins offensive line is playing below average, at least in the Titans game, does anyone believe our line is as bad as 2004? As bad as the lines for Detroit? Cleveland? Oakland!??

 

[Tailgun]

Man, Roethlisberger needs to sit down. I'll take Charlie Batch for the block.

Matt Hasselbeck's 5 TDs last week almost bring him to Culpepper's level. The flawed QB Rating system says he's an 88.1. This PER forumla is certainly more accurate. :rofl3:

Seriously, nothing is pefect. I'm just having some fun with that fact.

Actually, Hasselbeck has struggled. He's thrown for a decent 658 yards, but he's thrown 5 interceptions and been sacked 8 times already for another 63 yards. The NFL rating system has rewarded him for his 67% completion rating, a common statistical anomaly when applied to West Coast system QBs.

What would you rather have, a passer who goes 3/3 for 9 yards or 1/3 for 10? The NFL's system actually rewards the former with a higher rating, PER rewards the latter for efficiency.

 

[jlfin]

Culpepper hasnt been terrible, the offensive line has been terrible

Do you look at anything more than stats?

Question is, do you? The O-line has had breakdowns but they haven't been terrible. You must be referring to the number of sacks allowed (isn't that a stat?). On close examination at least 5-7 of those sacks were due to DC holding on to the ball to long or just letting the ball slip out of his hands.

 

[bluehaze]

you have got to be kidding!!!!!! The reason he's taking so long to get the ball out is because he's scrambling for his life...The O-line is playing terrible.

I have yet to see Culpepper scramble for his life, he either sits there and takes the sack or he prances to the sidelines while a 350 lb linebacker runs up from behind and tackles him by his shoestrings.