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PFF Ranks Miami's Defensive Line 28th

Mach2

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But are they so great if you just ignore the INTs for a second...? Because blitzing so much did come at a price as the Fins were giving up 8 yards per pass attempt, which is 4th to last in the NFL in 2020. The fact Howard got all those INTs kind of made it moot, but is Howard likely to replicate the INT numbers in 2020? History strtongly leans towards no, and if thats the case, then the whole thing looks a whole lot different.

Now the additions on D really seem to hit the nail on what they actually needed to be able to get the same pressure output while blitzing less which is great. But I really dont expect the Fins to be top 5 in takeaways next season and they'll have to improve on the other 95% of plays where there arent any TOs to really remain in the top 10 in scoring D. Or maybe Howard is just the GUY that flat out dominates and he gets another double digit INT season, maybe he is the Cam Wake of the secondary... At some point, we're bound to get another one of those...
One thing I would point out about our turnovers last season, we led the league with 29, but it wasn't, historically, a high number.

2019 Pit led with 38, and 29 would have been 5th.

2018 Chi led with 36, and 29 would have been tied for 4th.

2017 Bal led with 36, and 29 would, again, have been 5th.

My point is, our 29 was not a huge number in context.

I do doubt that X has another double digit INT season, but there's no reason we can't be close to the same number, and easily top third of the league.

I also do agree that the TOs did mask some other deficiencies, but I fully expect those areas to be addressed to some extent.
 

PhinFan1968

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PFF needs to adjust their weighting of stats:

2020 Miami Dolphins Defense
#1 Takeaways (Team #3 in differential)
#1 on 3rd Down
#6 in scoring (mostly due to that abortion game in week 17, otherwise #1 or #2)

Yards don't mean jack...gimme #1 in those 3 stats all day long over giving up the least rushing or passing yards.
 

KBEE

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PFF needs to adjust their weighting of stats:

2020 Miami Dolphins Defense
#1 Takeaways (Team #3 in differential)
#1 on 3rd Down
#6 in scoring (mostly due to that abortion game in week 17, otherwise #1 or #2)

Yards don't mean jack...gimme #1 in those 3 stats all day long over giving up the least rushing or passing yards.

I was just about the list the same three stats......although I think we are actually # 4 in scoring.
 

NBP81

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One thing I would point out about our turnovers last season, we led the league with 29, but it wasn't, historically, a high number.

2019 Pit led with 38, and 29 would have been 5th.

2018 Chi led with 36, and 29 would have been tied for 4th.

2017 Bal led with 36, and 29 would, again, have been 5th.

My point is, our 29 was not a huge number in context.

I do doubt that X has another double digit INT season, but there's no reason we can't be close to the same number, and easily top third of the league.

I also do agree that the TOs did mask some other deficiencies, but I fully expect those areas to be addressed to some extent.
Yeah I wasnt really talking about the Fins having an inordinate amount of TOs as much as that actual number fluctuates alot between seasons. While I havent really gone to far into this, its pretty much known that TOs dont really corrolate from year to year... As an example, 3 teams from the top 5 last year found themselves at the #12, #15 and #17 spot.
 

PhinFan1968

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I was just about the list the same three stats......although I think we are actually # 4 in scoring.
We were actually tied for 5th with New Orleans, I was just taking the negative side of it so it didn't seem I was adjusting.
 

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But are they so great if you just ignore the INTs for a second...? Because blitzing so much did come at a price as the Fins were giving up 8 yards per pass attempt, which is 4th to last in the NFL in 2020. The fact Howard got all those INTs kind of made it moot, but is Howard likely to replicate the INT numbers in 2020? History strtongly leans towards no, and if thats the case, then the whole thing looks a whole lot different.

Now the additions on D really seem to hit the nail on what they actually needed to be able to get the same pressure output while blitzing less which is great. But I really dont expect the Fins to be top 5 in takeaways next season and they'll have to improve on the other 95% of plays where there arent any TOs to really remain in the top 10 in scoring D. Or maybe Howard is just the GUY that flat out dominates and he gets another double digit INT season, maybe he is the Cam Wake of the secondary... At some point, we're bound to get another one of those...
Hard to say. I'm not one to dive down too deeply into the analytical statistics because I believe they only tell you the what, not the why of things. Was the 8 yards per attempt because all the blitzing removed the LBs and safeties from making tackles? Maybe. Was the 8 yards per attempt because QBs had more time in the pocket to let plays open up? Maybe. Did Jones and Howard give up too much space? Maybe.

So I tend to pooh pooh those kind of stats as a general rule.

My take on it is that has been that we had to blitz more than you want and yes, this causes some bad things along with the good. Baker's sacks went up for sure... but how many completed passes went to his spot when he came up empty? Again... who knows.

I do know that every single FH poster who came in here and said we ought to draft all offense because our defense was already so good... made my head hurt. That sort of blindness drives me crazy.
 

TheRevoltingBlob

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But are they so great if you just ignore the INTs for a second...? Because blitzing so much did come at a price as the Fins were giving up 8 yards per pass attempt, which is 4th to last in the NFL in 2020. The fact Howard got all those INTs kind of made it moot, but is Howard likely to replicate the INT numbers in 2020? History strtongly leans towards no, and if thats the case, then the whole thing looks a whole lot different.

Now the additions on D really seem to hit the nail on what they actually needed to be able to get the same pressure output while blitzing less which is great. But I really dont expect the Fins to be top 5 in takeaways next season and they'll have to improve on the other 95% of plays where there arent any TOs to really remain in the top 10 in scoring D. Or maybe Howard is just the GUY that flat out dominates and he gets another double digit INT season, maybe he is the Cam Wake of the secondary... At some point, we're bound to get another one of those...
X did already lead the league with 7 interceptions in only 12 games his last healthy season in 2018.

Is he a guy u can count on to get double digits every year? No. No one is. Nobody has gone ever 10 since 1981, and the last guy to hit double digits was Antonio Cromartie in 2007.

But X is a damn ballhawk and will get his. The most times a player has lead the league in INT's is 3. X has already done it twice (though his first time was a tie in only 12 games).

Can he reach double digits again?
Highly unlikely

Will he be among the league leaders?
I'd be surprised if he wasn't (if healthy)
 

NBP81

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Hard to say. I'm not one to dive down too deeply into the analytical statistics because I believe they only tell you the what, not the why of things. Was the 8 yards per attempt because all the blitzing removed the LBs and safeties from making tackles? Maybe. Was the 8 yards per attempt because QBs had more time in the pocket to let plays open up? Maybe. Did Jones and Howard give up too much space? Maybe.

So I tend to pooh pooh those kind of stats as a general rule.
You can poo poo on it all you want and thats fine, but fact is pretty much all you said there can actually be explained by stats... Some stats over the years are coin flips from year to year and some seem to remain more stable, granted, it ll be hard to learn anything on it if you've already poo pooed all over the thing but Im pretty sure someone like you would pick it up pretty fast if you gave it a shot.
 

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You can poo poo on it all you want and thats fine, but fact is pretty much all you said there can actually be explained by stats... Some stats over the years are coin flips from year to year and some seem to remain more stable, granted, it ll be hard to learn anything on it if you've already poo pooed all over the thing but Im pretty sure someone like you would pick it up pretty fast if you gave it a shot.
I've looked at these new stats, and again... as others have said, I think this analytical thing is much better suited to beisboll. In the NFL, there are too many moving parts. I think way too many people see some odd stat and then try to tell you WHY it happened... and miss the fact that several things caused it.
 

TheRevoltingBlob

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I've looked at these new stats, and again... as others have said, I think this analytical thing is much better suited to beisboll. In the NFL, there are too many moving parts. I think way too many people see some odd stat and then try to tell you WHY it happened... and miss the fact that several things caused it.
I agree w you about certain analytical stats.

But right now ur currently talking about yards per pass attempt against the defense. Why is that a "new analytical stat," when I'm sure you don't consider the offensive equivalent of QB Y/A to be one?

They are simply offensive and defensive versions of the same stat. Both require accounting for moving parts, scheme, and additional context if u want to fully understand how they were reached.

But no one seems to ever question the validity of using offensive Y/A.
 

Feverdream

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I agree w you about certain analytical stats.

But right now ur currently talking about yards per pass attempt against the defense. Why is that a "new analytical stat," when I'm sure you don't consider the offensive equivalent of QB Y/A to be one?

They are simply offensive and defensive versions of the same stat. Both require accounting for moving parts, scheme, and additional context if u want to fully understand how they were reached.

But no one seems to ever question the validity of using offensive Y/A.
I do actually...

Yards per attempt can be caused by a QB who constantly throws deep, or by a successful WCO that throws short and the RBs and Slots continually break off big plays.

Yards per attempt can be boosted by having a fantastic line that gives a QB all day to find a receiver.

The stat can be generated by a number of things, and I've never taken it very seriously.
 

13marino13

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I respect PFF and find some of their information useful, but ranking Miami's defensive line 28th seems extremely low.

Admittedly, there's no way to know how good Phillips will become. That's an unknown and the team really needs him to be a plus player.

But the Dolphins do have nice depth and solid starters in Ogbah, Wilkins and Davis. I think it's an overall unit that's top half in the NFL.

Am I looking at it with aqua colored glasses?
Ef PFF... :sxy:
 

13marino13

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So, PFF had Miami's secondary ranked 14th at the end of the 2020 season and prior to the draft. I disagree big time there.

Ranked the Dolphins linebackers at 26th for 2021.
that's why they are asshats...
David Boreanaz Sealteam GIF by CBS
 

TheRevoltingBlob

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I do actually...

Yards per attempt can be caused by a QB who constantly throws deep, or by a successful WCO that throws short and the RBs and Slots continually break off big plays.

Yards per attempt can be boosted by having a fantastic line that gives a QB all day to find a receiver.

The stat can be generated by a number of things, and I've never taken it very seriously.
Fair enough. But then that logic can be used toward literally every statistic.

Sacks, QB completion %, WR receptions, RB YPC, interceptions, all yardage/TDs from every position, ect.

None of these stats are accumulated in a vacuum. All of them need the added context and include the same variables you are using to invalidate QB Y/A.

At that point literally no numbers should be used in football at all until we can account for every variable that led to how they were accumulated.

I prefer to do my best to attempt to add context (to the best of my ability) to help find the true value in the numbers that are already being used.

It is addmittedly very difficult in football. There are definitely limitations. But I want to account for the types of context you are referencing. That involves diving deeper and using what you consider analytics.

(To be clear, that is not the same as blindly accepting PFF grades)
 
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