Playoff probability 12%

[DolfanAdam]

NFL.com currently has our playoff probability listed as 12%, with Denver's listed at 83%...how is that even possible?

At worst, I'd think it'd be 25%, because there's a 50% chance we win or lose, and a 50% chance Denver wins or loses, I'm hardly a mathematician but if there's only 4 possible outcomes is that not 25%?

But realistically, the Dolphins are the #18 ranked team, taking on a #28 ranked Jets.
While the #1 ranked Chiefs are taking on a #12 ranked Broncos.

Should that alone not dramatically raise our probability, well above even 25%?

Yes, I know KC is resting starters and Denver is playing for their life. But on the flip side to that, so are we, and the Jets are a dumpster fire that's gotten steamrolled by teams far worse than us, including the #30 ranked Patriots. Also, we're on a 2 game win streak, and Denver is on a 2 game losing streak. Where's the optimism? I feel like a lot people sound like we're walking towards our funeral. I think we're about to roll into the playoffs! And assuming, a few key players () are back by then, possibly even give the Bills a massive upset...

 

[Jimi]

Well Denver is currently double digit favorites over KC’s backups, while we are only a 1 point favorite over the Jets. So that’s why.

 

[Smith21]

Well Denver is currently double digit favorites over KC’s backups, while we are only a 1 point favorite over the Jets. So that’s why.

But all KC backups want a chance to show out and play in the playoffs

 

[JamesWsenior]

But all KC backups want a chance to show out and play in the playoffs

Lol of course! I like your optimism but I will approach it much less so. Knowing our luck we eeeek one out vs the Jets only to have Harold turn on the magnetic machine while KC is down two, 44 yards out and the walk off FG, hits the upright, goes hard left and lodges itself in Swifty's front teeth.

 

[Jimi]

But all KC backups want a chance to show out and play in the playoffs

Yea, and Vegas took that into account and still estimated a Broncos blowout.

Not like they’re never wrong, but the odds are still very against us.

 

[mandal24]

I'd also argue Carson Wentz is an absolute wildcard..

nooo idea how this dude is going to play from 1 game to the next which is both good and bad lol I mean its not like the Chiefs are trotting out Tim Boyle so at least there's that.

Wentz does have a SB win and he's only on a 1 year contract so I'd imagine, this is a 1 game audition for Wentz who wants to ball to show teams he still has it. Wentz+Reid does have potential.. maybe? one can hope

Also, guys like JuJu and Hollywood Brown should play so there is some hope

 

[marino13zach54]

Am I crazy for thinking 12% is a pretty respectable number?

I’d have bet the under at 10% if were a gambling man.

 

[JamesWsenior]

I'd also argue Carson Wentz is an absolute wildcard..

nooo idea how this dude is going to play from 1 game to the next which is both good and bad lol I mean its not like the Chiefs are trotting out Tim Boyle so at least there's that.

Wentz does have a SB win and he's only on a 1 year contract so I'd imagine, this is a 1 game audition for Wentz who wants to ball to show teams he still has it. Wentz+Reid does have potential.. maybe? one can hope

Funny, I saw a massive falling star the other night, the wife goes quick make a wish.

Chiefs beating the Broncos came 2nd. I came first

 

[Jimi]

I'd also argue Carson Wentz is an absolute wildcard..

nooo idea how this dude is going to play from 1 game to the next which is both good and bad lol I mean its not like the Chiefs are trotting out Tim Boyle so at least there's that.

Wentz does have a SB win and he's only on a 1 year contract so I'd imagine, this is a 1 game audition for Wentz who wants to ball to show teams he still has it. Wentz+Reid does have potential.. maybe? one can hope

Also, guys like JuJu and Hollywood Brown should play so there is some hope

Yah, that’s are one saving grace. Who knows, maybe Wentz returns to pro bowl form for a game.

 

[mandal24]

Being Dolphins fans, we know how this is going to go. Broncos lose.. and Jets win fml

 

[mandal24]

Funny, I saw a massive falling star the other night, the wife goes quick make a wish.

Chiefs beating the Broncos came 2nd. I came first

 

[JamesWsenior]

She took one for the team.

 

[marino13zach54]

Being Dolphins fans, we know how this is going to go. Broncos lose.. and Jets win fml

You know, if you were at a computer near me I’d throw something at your face.

That shiet’s way too real…

 

[powerball1373]

NFL.com currently has our playoff probability listed as 12%, with Denver's listed at 83%...how is that even possible?

At worst, I'd think it'd be 25%, because there's a 50% chance we win or lose, and a 50% chance Denver wins or loses, I'm hardly a mathematician but if there's only 4 possible outcomes is that not 25%?

But realistically, the Dolphins are the #18 ranked team, taking on a #28 ranked Jets.
While the #1 ranked Chiefs are taking on a #12 ranked Broncos.

Should that alone not dramatically raise our probability, well above even 25%?

Yes, I know KC is resting starters and Denver is playing for their life. But on the flip side to that, so are we, and the Jets are a dumpster fire that's gotten steamrolled by teams far worse than us, including the #30 ranked Patriots. Also, we're on a 2 game win streak, and Denver is on a 2 game losing streak. Where's the optimism? I feel like a lot people sound like we're walking towards our funeral. I think we're about to roll into the playoffs! And assuming, a few key players () are back by then, possibly even give the Bills a massive upset...

Denver is currently -520 on the moneyline, which gives implied odds of 83.87% (or 16.13% of losing, which we need).

Miami is -120, which gives implied odds of 54.55%.

According to Vegas, the probability of Denver losing AND Miami winning is 8.8%.

 

[Archaeopteryx]

NFL.com currently has our playoff probability listed as 12%, with Denver's listed at 83%...how is that even possible?

At worst, I'd think it'd be 25%, because there's a 50% chance we win or lose, and a 50% chance Denver wins or loses, I'm hardly a mathematician but if there's only 4 possible outcomes is that not 25%?

But realistically, the Dolphins are the #18 ranked team, taking on a #28 ranked Jets.
While the #1 ranked Chiefs are taking on a #12 ranked Broncos.

Should that alone not dramatically raise our probability, well above even 25%?

Yes, I know KC is resting starters and Denver is playing for their life. But on the flip side to that, so are we, and the Jets are a dumpster fire that's gotten steamrolled by teams far worse than us, including the #30 ranked Patriots. Also, we're on a 2 game win streak, and Denver is on a 2 game losing streak. Where's the optimism? I feel like a lot people sound like we're walking towards our funeral. I think we're about to roll into the playoffs! And assuming, a few key players () are back by then, possibly even give the Bills a massive upset...

The probability they list for making the playoffs is based on the outcomes of the simulation that they run. I have no idea how the NFL.com runs theirs, but the Athletic, for example, runs their model through 100,000 simulations to get their probabilities. I would think getting the model correct for a team like KC that is sitting many of their starters complicates things.