Playoff Race
- Thread starter tennisboy
- Start date
SpaceMountain16
Disgruntled
It comes down to the head to head game in Miami two weeks from now. My heart hopes so, my head says we can't beat them (this is assuming they lose to New Orleans which i'm not even sure they will). Of course if we do i think we're in pretty good shape. Assuming we beat the Bills and Pats you'd have to think we could win two or three of the final four against the Jags,Texans,Titans and Steelers. We'd probably get in with those head to head wins and a 9-7 or 10-6 record.
But i don't think we can beat New England, that's the problem.
But i don't think we can beat New England, that's the problem.
Two-Gappin
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Yep
When Can Soliai Make It Back Completely From Injury? Thats A Key To Our Season?
When Can Soliai Make It Back Completely From Injury? Thats A Key To Our Season?
ronniebrown#1
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i expect us to get the 2nd wild-card spot. Jacksonville has a brutal schedule, texans, pittsburgh are beatable.
In order to beat the Pats, we must really exploit their D, like we did Indy this year. We are not good enough on D to constistently stop Brady and company if we have a similar time of possesion. We must disrupt the game and keep Brady out of his confort zone as much as possible, and run the clock on O. Also we need to finish on D, the way we start. Too many times we come out like gang busters and fizzle in the 2nd half.
zachblitz54
Juck the Fets
I think 10 - 6 will get us in as a WC, but we have to beat Hou and Pitt. I think Jack, Balt and Tenn will just fall out on their own.
We will have to go 11 - 5 to win the division, IMO. I don't see us getting in at 9 - 7.
We will have to go 11 - 5 to win the division, IMO. I don't see us getting in at 9 - 7.
i took a look at the AFC Playoffs if they started today.
obviously, Indianapolis at 10-0 are #1
after that, it gets really dicey. there are three teams at 7-3. that's New England, Cincinnati and San Diego
there is no head-to-head sweep between those teams. the next tie-breaker is conference record. that doesn't help much either. everyone is 5-3 against the AFC thus far. the next step is commom games, however, there are only two common opponents between those three teams, so that tie-breaker doesn't apply. finally, strengh of victory would solve the issue. Cincinnati's opponents in their wins are 33-37, San Diego's 32-38 and New England's 27-43.
that leads to the following seeding:
Indianapolis #1
Cincinnati #2
San Diego #3
New England #4
as for the Wildcards, there is again a three-way-tie. this time, it's between Pittsburgh, Denver and Jacksonville. head-to-head sweep doesn't apply. conference record breaks the tie. Jacksonville is best at 5-2, Denver is 5-3 and the SB champs Pittsburgh are 4-3.
Jacksonville #5
Denver #6
looking over at the NFC. it's a little bit easier there.
New Orleans and Minnesota are entrenched at #1 and #2, respectively. Dallas and Arizona didn't play, but Dallas has a better conference record at 6-2 compared to 5-2 for the Cards
New Orleans #1
Minnesota #2
Dallas #3
Arizona #4
there are 3 teams with a 6-4 record vying for a Wildcard spot. those are Philadelphia, Green Bay and the NY Giants. both NY and PHI are from the NFC East, so only one team will go into the tie-breaker with Green Bay. for now, that's Philadelphia based on a 1-0 head-to-head record with NY. Philadelphia has the better conference record between themselves and the Packers at 5-2. Green Bay is 5-3
Philadelphia #5
Green Bay #6
that's how things would look like if the playoffs started today. Denver would have to play at San Diego. New England would face Jacksonville at home. Green Bay would travel to Dallas and Philadelphia would face the Cards in a rematch in Arizona.
Indianapolis, Cincinnati, New Orleans and Minnesota would have a first-round bye.
obviously, Indianapolis at 10-0 are #1
after that, it gets really dicey. there are three teams at 7-3. that's New England, Cincinnati and San Diego
there is no head-to-head sweep between those teams. the next tie-breaker is conference record. that doesn't help much either. everyone is 5-3 against the AFC thus far. the next step is commom games, however, there are only two common opponents between those three teams, so that tie-breaker doesn't apply. finally, strengh of victory would solve the issue. Cincinnati's opponents in their wins are 33-37, San Diego's 32-38 and New England's 27-43.
that leads to the following seeding:
Indianapolis #1
Cincinnati #2
San Diego #3
New England #4
as for the Wildcards, there is again a three-way-tie. this time, it's between Pittsburgh, Denver and Jacksonville. head-to-head sweep doesn't apply. conference record breaks the tie. Jacksonville is best at 5-2, Denver is 5-3 and the SB champs Pittsburgh are 4-3.
Jacksonville #5
Denver #6
looking over at the NFC. it's a little bit easier there.
New Orleans and Minnesota are entrenched at #1 and #2, respectively. Dallas and Arizona didn't play, but Dallas has a better conference record at 6-2 compared to 5-2 for the Cards
New Orleans #1
Minnesota #2
Dallas #3
Arizona #4
there are 3 teams with a 6-4 record vying for a Wildcard spot. those are Philadelphia, Green Bay and the NY Giants. both NY and PHI are from the NFC East, so only one team will go into the tie-breaker with Green Bay. for now, that's Philadelphia based on a 1-0 head-to-head record with NY. Philadelphia has the better conference record between themselves and the Packers at 5-2. Green Bay is 5-3
Philadelphia #5
Green Bay #6
that's how things would look like if the playoffs started today. Denver would have to play at San Diego. New England would face Jacksonville at home. Green Bay would travel to Dallas and Philadelphia would face the Cards in a rematch in Arizona.
Indianapolis, Cincinnati, New Orleans and Minnesota would have a first-round bye.
For the division, it really comes down to the New England game: if we win that, we have a chance but must still play one game better than the Pats over the other five remaining games. If we lose, then the division is pretty much decided unless the Pats collapse. (It turns out Crowder was right, and the division really does go through Miami this year. The Pats need that game to wrap it up.)
For a wildcard, there are three 6-4 teams ahead of us, chasing two spots. There are also two other teams at 5-5, but both already have 4 AFC losses, while Miami has 3. (Also note that all Miami's remaining games are AFC.)
Our schedule is really quite good for chasing down a wildcard -- if we keep winning. It's better to have the opportunity to overtake Pittsburgh and Jacksonville by beating them, rather than hoping for help from other teams. That doesn't mean it'll be easy, but it never is anyway, so at least this way our potential wins would "count twice" in a way.
As posted elsewhere, we're almost certain to get in the playoffs at 11-5 (not 100% certain, but close). The more relevant question is whether we'd also make it at 10-6. Looking at the standings and schedule, I think there might be a 10-6 wildcard this year and we'd have a chance. At 10-6, we'd finish 8-4 in the AFC and that's a pretty good tiebreak position. Plus, if we beat Jacksonville and/or Pittsburgh (for example), then we could benefit from head-to-head tiebreaks.
It's always important to remember that head-to-head wins or losses can sometimes be nullified if you get stuck in a tiebreak involving three or more teams. You want a good conference record as backup, and 8-4 would be pretty good.
Every year about this time, people start looking at remaining schedules and assuming that teams playing well will run out their schedule -- but it almost never really happens that way. There are always upsets and unexpected results. Sure, it's possible that two of the 6-4 teams will go 5-1 from here out, and/or that one of the 5-5 teams will run the table. I just think it's more likely that one of those five teams will finish 11-5, while two or three of the others will finish 10-6, for the second wildcard.
For a wildcard, there are three 6-4 teams ahead of us, chasing two spots. There are also two other teams at 5-5, but both already have 4 AFC losses, while Miami has 3. (Also note that all Miami's remaining games are AFC.)
Our schedule is really quite good for chasing down a wildcard -- if we keep winning. It's better to have the opportunity to overtake Pittsburgh and Jacksonville by beating them, rather than hoping for help from other teams. That doesn't mean it'll be easy, but it never is anyway, so at least this way our potential wins would "count twice" in a way.
As posted elsewhere, we're almost certain to get in the playoffs at 11-5 (not 100% certain, but close). The more relevant question is whether we'd also make it at 10-6. Looking at the standings and schedule, I think there might be a 10-6 wildcard this year and we'd have a chance. At 10-6, we'd finish 8-4 in the AFC and that's a pretty good tiebreak position. Plus, if we beat Jacksonville and/or Pittsburgh (for example), then we could benefit from head-to-head tiebreaks.
It's always important to remember that head-to-head wins or losses can sometimes be nullified if you get stuck in a tiebreak involving three or more teams. You want a good conference record as backup, and 8-4 would be pretty good.
Every year about this time, people start looking at remaining schedules and assuming that teams playing well will run out their schedule -- but it almost never really happens that way. There are always upsets and unexpected results. Sure, it's possible that two of the 6-4 teams will go 5-1 from here out, and/or that one of the 5-5 teams will run the table. I just think it's more likely that one of those five teams will finish 11-5, while two or three of the others will finish 10-6, for the second wildcard.