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Playoff Race

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After our victory over the Patriots (damn that's fun to write), we are tied with 3 other teams at 7-6 (Ravens, Colts and Titans). There is only one team not leading a division that has a better record, the Chargers.

We hold the head to head advantage over the Titans and the Colts hold the same over us. We are unlikely to win many tiebreakers as it stands now. But, if we win 2 out of the next 3 games, we go 9-7 and have a shot at the playoffs. If we go 10-6, which means winning at the Vikings, home against the Jags, and at the Bills, we have a pretty good chance of making the playoffs.

The remaining games are

Ravens: Bucs, @ Chargers, and Browns
Colts: Cowboys, Giants, and @ Titans
Titans: @ Giants, Redskins, and Colts

It is very likely that one or more of these teams wins 2 of 3 remaining games. It is also likely they would hold tiebreakers over us. But, if we win out, go 10-6, we stand a very good chance of making the playoffs, because the Ravens@Chargers will be a game the Chargers need if they are going to win the division, and the Chargers are a good team. The Colts@Titans means one team will win and one will lose, leaving the NFC East teams the Giants, Cowboys and Redskins as the X-factor for the Colts@Titans winner.

This probably means we need to win out.

It's not probable, but it is still possible. Let's enjoy the victory over the Patriots, as we snatched victory out of the jaws of defeat. A glimmer of hope still survives in this Playoff Race.
 
Go to the game thread I called a 1 point win. I even won $1,200.00 doing so. I bet on the Dolphins to win. At :07 I was saying **** I loss $600.00 and then :07 I win. WOW!!! Emotions where a wild in that game. GO DOLPHINS!!! We still can win the division believe or not!!!
 
I think 9-7 wins the final wildcard spot and if Miami's remaining loss comes at the hands of the Vikings they should finish with a decent AFC record. For example if Miami beat the Bills and Jags and the Ravens lose to the Chargers, the Dolphins would finish with the better AFC record and have an edge if it finishes in a three or four way tie for the final spot. At this point a 9-7 finish even without a playoff spot would be amazing all things considered.
 
Pittsburgh has a rough remaining schedule and they are not playing well. The Ravens may take the division and the Steelers May miss the playoffs altogether.
The phins have a more favorable schedule than the Colts and Titans. They play each other so that guarantees at least one more loss for one of them.
The Vikings aren’t as formidable as they appeared at the beginning of the year and the phins are catching them on a short week.
Jacksonville and Buffalo are unpredictable, but are very winnable.
 
Toughest remaining games for these teams:

MIA @ MIN
BAL @ LAC
IND vs DAL
TEN vs IND

Of those, BAL @ LAC is the most difficult, and MIA @ MIN is probably tied with the other two - just because it's an away game - but the Cowboys and Colts have been playing better than the Vikings. I do think Minnesota is a bit of a tough matchup, because their DL is the strength of that team, and Miami's OL will likely have a tough time.

I see Tennessee as the biggest longshot, with Miami the next biggest. I said it two or three weeks ago, but I'd be surprised if the Colts or Ravens don't take the 6th seed, and I'd favor the Colts. Still, Miami has a chance, and that's more than I expected at this point.
 
Winning in Minnesota will be tough so I went through the ESPN Machine for scenarios at 9-7. If Baltimore wins the division, and IF the Dolphins lose at Minnesota next week the Titans will have to lose to either the Redskins or Giants for the Dolphins to have a chance at the wildcard. If Pittsburgh wins the division, having Baltimore back in the wild card race actually helps us a lot in tie-breaking scenarios
 
You know with all the injuries and tough losses (Indianapolis, Cincinnati), it's nice to be in this position. I do think it will take 10-6 to get there.
 
we just need to win out, its possible but we are going to need tannehill in order to do it...i hope the mobility in his ankle doesnt get worse as the week goes on and hes able to play

the defense is also going to need to step up bigtime down the stretch here, the vikings have alot of playmakers on offense and we let allen gash us for 100+ yds last time we played buffalo...
 
Conference record is the 2nd tie-breaker for a wildcard. #3 is head to head.

We have a 6-4 conference record. Ravens are also at 6-4 but have head to head over us. Colts are 6-5. Titans are 5-6.
 
I think the best we could hope for is a 4 or 5 team tie tie at 9-7. Then we win on some crazy obscure tiebreaker, like which teams stadium sold the most beer.
 
Nawledge said:
we just need to win out, its possible but we are going to need tannehill in order to do it...i hope the mobility in his ankle doesnt get worse as the week goes on and hes able to play

the defense is also going to need to step up bigtime down the stretch here, the vikings have alot of playmakers on offense and we let allen gash us for 100+ yds last time we played buffalo...
Click to expand...

even if Miami doesn't get to the playoffs, I've been impressed with where they are considering all the injuries. AND with no OC/DC
 
If we end up in a three way tie at 9-7 we have a great chance of getting in. That eliminates head to head games and goes by conference record. If we beat Bill and Jags we go 8-4 in the conference. That would be the best record with 3 or more teams. We would probably get in. Have to win the afc games though. The Vikings game would be nice too. Need Ravens to lose to the Chargers. Need Colts to lose to the cowyboys. Titans need to lose to giants maybe or colts later.
 
Given that Patriots finish with the Bills and Jets both at home, the Dolphins best shot at a playoff berth would be a Steelers collapse with losses to the Patriots and at the Saints.

By hypothesis, the Dolphins would win the division over the Patriots should both teams finish 10-6 (as the Dolphins would have a 5-1 division record versus a 4-2 division record for the Patriots). But, in the real world, the Dolphins should root for the Patriots to defeat the Steelers to maximize their playoff chances.
 
The final 3 teams we face all have top 10 defenses.

But they really haven't beaten anyone good either.

Vikings don't have a win against a team with winning record.
Bills only have victory over Vikings and rest are against losing teams
Jags have the 2 most impressive wins with early season win over Patriots and recent win over Indy. Both were at home.

It's not like that is a daunting playoff road. Need to take care of business.
 
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