Playoff Scenarios | Page 60 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Playoff Scenarios

Anything can happen....but Miami needs to focus on their business. For the other four games to go our way it is like flipping a coin and calling it right each time....it's not impossible but it is very tough. The annoying part is we lost our last two games and very easily could have one either or both of them.
 
Larry Dallas said:
The odds are roughly 625-1
do a 5 team ml parlay at any sportsbookreview
You think those odds are good? Time for a reality check
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That's the way to do it, a simple 5 team money line parlay.

Let's see, the man-to-man money line odds would approximately be:

* Jacksonville +115
* New England +290
* Miami +165
* Oakland +525
* Cincinnati +425

The way I calculate it, the theoretical odds would be roughly 728/1.

That 625/1 is a better estimate of what the sportsbook would give you, taking the juice. I used a split difference in every money line, halfway between the give price and the take price, to identify true odds as opposed to payout price.

Not promising. This is the type of thing where public perception strays wildly from actual odds. I used to win plenty of one on one bets in casinos from tourists who'd make ludicrous claims. Eventually it got old and I found it was best to either shut up or politely tell them their estimate was wrong.
 
mandal24 said:
Ok obviously the Dolphins have to win and its been pretty apparent that we can't seem to play a COMPLETE game but it always seems to be that the Fins play their best right when it seems that all hope is lost.

Jags at Cleveland- Snowy and cold conditions are expected. Not to mention Browns are hot right now and actually favored in this one. It doesn't help that Mercedes Lewis, Torry Holt, and Rashean Mathis are all out for this one. Jags are free-falling. Browns win 21-20

New England at Houston- Guys like Wilfork and Ty Warren might sit but the skill guys should start. Pats still need this win to clinch the 3rd seed. They need to get in a rhythm, especially on the road. Pats take a big lead and starters come out for the 2nd half. Pats win 28-24

These are the 1 o'clock games. Now comes to the interesting stuff.. the later games...

Ravens at Oakland- Ravens might be without some key players. Ed Reed probably wont go. Derrick Mason is questionable along with Tavares Gooden, Oniel Cousins, and Terrel Suggs. Raiders are a strange team to predict but playing in the Black Hole, plus Nnamdi, plus the long west coast trip could be disaster for the Ravens. Realistically, Ravens win 31-13. If Oakland shows up like they do every so often, Oakland wins 17-13

Cinci at Jets- It all depends on what Marvin Lewis decides to do. He did promise Ochocinco he would be starting but who knows. I do think Sanchez is bad enough to screw this one up, even against the Bengals backups.
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We'd be favored to beat the Bngal starters, if they rest their guys they have no shot.
 
nyjunc said:
We'd be favored to beat the Bngal starters, if they rest their guys they have no shot.
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why would u guys be favorite to beat the bengals exactly with their starters?

there alot better then u guys on offense, and if u want to make a claim that ur d is better, it maybe alittle better, but the bengals d is rlly strong also so it dosent make that big of a difference. if cincys starters were going to play, theyd be a 4 pt favorite prob.

it truly is amazing how jet fans think their team is so good bc they were doing **** against indy, and once the colts team leaves the field, the flood gates open up, the jets actually look like a team, and now all their fans get excited and think there all the sudden better than the bengals bc they beat a team of scrubs? get real.

can u guys beat the bengals starters? of course u can, bengals rnt that amazing, and any given sunday, anything can happen. but to say u guys would still be favored if their starters were going to play is just ridiculious.
 
Ilovemyfins4eva said:
why would u guys be favorite to beat the bengals exactly with their starters?

there alot better then u guys on offense, and if u want to make a claim that ur d is better, it maybe alittle better, but the bengals d is rlly strong also so it dosent make that big of a difference. if cincys starters were going to play, theyd be a 4 pt favorite prob.
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oh leave him alone, he should be proud of his jets. they played well against the colts bench, im sure they will give it their best, like a bunch of proud boy scouts, against the bengals reserves today.
 
of course they can realistically make the playoffs, if five things completely happen, that being said, they realistically will not the playoffs, if five things completely do not happen..

If you were playing a five game parlay, would these be the games you chose? Not me.
 
Ilovemyfins4eva said:
why would u guys be favorite to beat the bengals exactly with their starters?

there alot better then u guys on offense, and if u want to make a claim that ur d is better, it maybe alittle better, but the bengals d is rlly strong also so it dosent make that big of a difference. if cincys starters were going to play, theyd be a 4 pt favorite prob.

it truly is amazing how jet fans think their team is so good bc they were doing **** against indy, and once the colts team leaves the field, the flood gates open up, the jets actually look like a team, and now all their fans get excited and think there all the sudden better than the bengals bc they beat a team of scrubs? get real.

can u guys beat the bengals starters? of course u can, bengals rnt that amazing, and any given sunday, anything can happen. but to say u guys would still be favored if their starters were going to play is just ridiculious.
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Actually we have scored 20.7 PPG, Cincy 20.3(20.7 is MORE than 20.3)

Actual; points scored by the O's:

NYJ: 19.3
Cin: 18.9


Cincy does have a good D but not as good as ours.

D points allowed per game:
NYJ: 15.7
Cin: 16.9

Actual PPG allowed by D's:

NYJ: 12.5
Cin: 16


I don't think my team is "so good", I think we have a GOOD team that when we play well we cna beta anyone but when we play poorly we can lose to anyone(just like the Dolphins!)

Just so you know we were down 15-10 when the Colts starters left the field, we weren't getting blown out. Would we have won? probably not but that's not our problem, it's also not our problem that teams like Miami, jax, Bal and Den all lost.

Of course we'd be favored at home against Cincy even if they played their startes 60 mins. On the road we woudn't, if we win tonight the spread next week at Cincy won't be huge.
 
nyjunc said:
Actually we have scored 20.7 PPG, Cincy 20.3(20.7 is MORE than 20.3)

Actual; points scored by the O's:

NYJ: 19.3
Cin: 18.9


Cincy does have a good D but not as good as ours.

D points allowed per game:
NYJ: 15.7
Cin: 16.9

Actual PPG allowed by D's:

NYJ: 12.5
Cin: 16


I don't think my team is "so good", I think we have a GOOD team that when we play well we cna beta anyone but when we play poorly we can lose to anyone(just like the Dolphins!)

Just so you know we were down 15-10 when the Colts starters left the field, we weren't getting blown out. Would we have won? probably not but that's not our problem, it's also not our problem that teams like Miami, jax, Bal and Den all lost.

Of course we'd be favored at home against Cincy even if they played their startes 60 mins. On the road we woudn't, if we win tonight the spread next week at Cincy won't be huge.
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i respectfully disagree. i mean fine u showed me u guys r scoring less than a point more, but lets be honest here, i no and u no that the bengals offense is alot better then the jets. main reason is sanchez vs palmer, and that is a huge gap. id give the nod to recievers to cincy and the jets running game is better. overall though, whose offense is more feared? the reason is sanchez isnt anywhere near carson palmer.
 
Ilovemyfins4eva said:
why would u guys be favorite to beat the bengals exactly with their starters?

there alot better then u guys on offense, and if u want to make a claim that ur d is better, it maybe alittle better, but the bengals d is rlly strong also so it dosent make that big of a difference. if cincys starters were going to play, theyd be a 4 pt favorite prob.

it truly is amazing how jet fans think their team is so good bc they were doing **** against indy, and once the colts team leaves the field, the flood gates open up, the jets actually look like a team, and now all their fans get excited and think there all the sudden better than the bengals bc they beat a team of scrubs? get real.

can u guys beat the bengals starters? of course u can, bengals rnt that amazing, and any given sunday, anything can happen. but to say u guys would still be favored if their starters were going to play is just ridiculious.
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i think a lot of it has to do with the colts and bengals want the weaker team in the playoffs and thats obviously the jets.
 
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