These scenarios include the Fins-Eagles game.
There was an error in last week’s installment. Denver would not win every possible 10-6 wildcard tiebreak. The only one the Broncos would lose is a two-way tie with the Ravens. What I meant to write is that Denver would win any 10-6 tiebreak involving Miami.
Dolphins deathwatch
Regrettably, it is time to post the first Dolphins deathwatch.
If the Dolphins lose in Buffalo, they are out of the playoffs no matter what Denver and Tennessee do.
If the Dolphins win, they would still be eliminated if Denver AND Tennessee also win, OR if Denver wins AND Cincinnati OR Baltimore loses (see the 10-6 scenarios below for an explanation of why).
Bills & Jets funeral arrangements
At 6-8, both the Bills and Jets have been eliminated from the playoffs. Stick forks in both of them – they’re done.
AFC wildcard scenarios & tiebreaks
The Dolphins currently rank third among AFC wildcard contenders, behind the Titans and Broncos. Miami would lose any tiebreak involving Denver and would probably lose a tiebreak involving Tennessee. Bronco and Titan losses remain critical to Miami’s chances.
If Miami finishes its last three games…
2-0, 10-6 overall: Miami would win a wildcard if Denver loses twice, OR possibly if Tennessee loses twice AND the Ravens and Bengals BOTH win their remaining two games.
Miami’s only hope of winning a 10-6 tiebreak with the Titans is if the AFC North runner-up is also 10-6, creating a three-way tie. This can only happen if the Bengals and Ravens win all their remaining games, meaning the AFC North winner would be decided by strength of victory (Cincinnati leads, .455 vs. .401, and would be virtually certain to win the division).
If all that happens, the three-way tie among Miami, Tennessee and Baltimore would be decided by strength of victory – which at the moment is extremely close (Titans .404, Dolphins and Ravens both .401).
If Denver also finishes 10-6 to create a four-way tie, the Broncos would win the first wildcard and the tiebreak for the second slot would proceed as described above.
1-1, 9-7 overall: Miami cannot win a wildcard at 9-7.
Because the Titans already have 10 wins, only one wildcard can possibly be available at 9-7, and only Denver or Baltimore could win it. The Ravens would win a two-way tie with the Broncos at 9-7 since they beat Denver this season. If Miami were also 9-7, head-to-head games would not count and Denver would win the wildcard based on AFC record.
0-2, 8-8 overall: Wannstedt’s replacement will appreciate the higher draft pick next spring.
Week 16 games that affect Miami
Denver at Indianapolis: A Broncos loss is critical to Miami’s wildcard chances.
Tennessee at Houston: Two Titans losses could open the way for a Miami wildcard.
Green Bay at Oakland: A Packers win keeps them in the NFC playoff hunt, adding incentive for their final game: at home against the Broncos.
Cincinnati at St. Louis & Baltimore at Cleveland: If the Bengals and Ravens both win their last two games, it might enable Miami to win a three-way tiebreak with the Titans (if Tennessee loses twice).
Games that matter only to ‘strength of victory’
Strength of victory (the combined final record of all opponents a team has defeated) can only possibly matter to Miami in a three-way wildcard tiebreak at 10-6 involving the Titans and Ravens (or possibly Bengals). This can only happen if the Titans lose twice AND the Bengals and Ravens BOTH win twice.
SOV changes weekly, according to whether teams you have previously defeated win or lose. Miami and Baltimore are currently tied (.401), just barely behind Tennessee (.404). Cincinnati, which is very unlikely to figure into a SOV tiebreak, is well ahead (.455).
The Giants-Cowboys game will help Miami’s strength of victory score slightly no matter what happens. In other games, here are the results that would be more favorable to Miami:
There was an error in last week’s installment. Denver would not win every possible 10-6 wildcard tiebreak. The only one the Broncos would lose is a two-way tie with the Ravens. What I meant to write is that Denver would win any 10-6 tiebreak involving Miami.
Dolphins deathwatch
Regrettably, it is time to post the first Dolphins deathwatch.
If the Dolphins lose in Buffalo, they are out of the playoffs no matter what Denver and Tennessee do.
If the Dolphins win, they would still be eliminated if Denver AND Tennessee also win, OR if Denver wins AND Cincinnati OR Baltimore loses (see the 10-6 scenarios below for an explanation of why).
Bills & Jets funeral arrangements
At 6-8, both the Bills and Jets have been eliminated from the playoffs. Stick forks in both of them – they’re done.
AFC wildcard scenarios & tiebreaks
The Dolphins currently rank third among AFC wildcard contenders, behind the Titans and Broncos. Miami would lose any tiebreak involving Denver and would probably lose a tiebreak involving Tennessee. Bronco and Titan losses remain critical to Miami’s chances.
If Miami finishes its last three games…
2-0, 10-6 overall: Miami would win a wildcard if Denver loses twice, OR possibly if Tennessee loses twice AND the Ravens and Bengals BOTH win their remaining two games.
Miami’s only hope of winning a 10-6 tiebreak with the Titans is if the AFC North runner-up is also 10-6, creating a three-way tie. This can only happen if the Bengals and Ravens win all their remaining games, meaning the AFC North winner would be decided by strength of victory (Cincinnati leads, .455 vs. .401, and would be virtually certain to win the division).
If all that happens, the three-way tie among Miami, Tennessee and Baltimore would be decided by strength of victory – which at the moment is extremely close (Titans .404, Dolphins and Ravens both .401).
If Denver also finishes 10-6 to create a four-way tie, the Broncos would win the first wildcard and the tiebreak for the second slot would proceed as described above.
1-1, 9-7 overall: Miami cannot win a wildcard at 9-7.
Because the Titans already have 10 wins, only one wildcard can possibly be available at 9-7, and only Denver or Baltimore could win it. The Ravens would win a two-way tie with the Broncos at 9-7 since they beat Denver this season. If Miami were also 9-7, head-to-head games would not count and Denver would win the wildcard based on AFC record.
0-2, 8-8 overall: Wannstedt’s replacement will appreciate the higher draft pick next spring.
Week 16 games that affect Miami
Denver at Indianapolis: A Broncos loss is critical to Miami’s wildcard chances.
Tennessee at Houston: Two Titans losses could open the way for a Miami wildcard.
Green Bay at Oakland: A Packers win keeps them in the NFC playoff hunt, adding incentive for their final game: at home against the Broncos.
Cincinnati at St. Louis & Baltimore at Cleveland: If the Bengals and Ravens both win their last two games, it might enable Miami to win a three-way tiebreak with the Titans (if Tennessee loses twice).
Games that matter only to ‘strength of victory’
Strength of victory (the combined final record of all opponents a team has defeated) can only possibly matter to Miami in a three-way wildcard tiebreak at 10-6 involving the Titans and Ravens (or possibly Bengals). This can only happen if the Titans lose twice AND the Bengals and Ravens BOTH win twice.
SOV changes weekly, according to whether teams you have previously defeated win or lose. Miami and Baltimore are currently tied (.401), just barely behind Tennessee (.404). Cincinnati, which is very unlikely to figure into a SOV tiebreak, is well ahead (.455).
The Giants-Cowboys game will help Miami’s strength of victory score slightly no matter what happens. In other games, here are the results that would be more favorable to Miami:
- Jets over Patriots
- Jaguars over Saints
- Redskins over Bears
- Chargers over Steelers
- Eagles over 49ers
- Buccaneers over Falcons
- Vikings over Chiefs
- Lions over Panthers
- Cardinals over Seahawks
