Post Week 15 Playoff Thread (2 Games to Go)

Kdawg954

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Miami officially controls their own destiny into the playoffs with 2 weeks to go, thanks to a Denver Broncos loss:

Miami can no longer get the 1/2/3/4 seed in the AFC playoffs. New England is your official AFC East division Winner.

Can We Clinch Next Week?

YES!! If we defeat Buffalo and Denver loses @ KC. We will have clinched a playoff spot.

Can We Be Eliminated Next Week?

NOPE!! We are 1 game clear of every other Wild Card competing team in the AFC. We cannot be Eliminated until Week 17 at the earliest.

For Miami to get the 6 seed

11-5 - Miami would guarantee themselves the 6 seed and have serious aspirations about the 5 seed
10-6 - Miami would have lost one of their final two games (@ NYJ & vs. NE) AND Denver would have to lose at least 1 of their final two games (@ KC & vs. Oak). If Denver were to win their final 2 games, Miami would need KC to lose their final 2 games so KC can win the tiebreak over Denver (division tiebreak) and we can win the tiebreak over KC (common games tiebreak). This scenario would guarantee us the 6 seed, and possibly the 5 seed (see below)
9-7 - Miami would have lost both of their final games and they need a bunch of stuff to go their way including: Denver going 0-2, Baltimore going 0-2, Buffalo going 1-1 (they would edge us out via strength of victory), Tennessee going 0-2, etc. Just an unimaginable situation, one that will merit more analysis if we lose next week and see the other results.


For Miami to get the 5 seed

11-5 - Miami would need Kansas City to lose at least one of their last 2 games and Oakland to win at least one of their last 2 games. Oakland would win the division and we would beat KC on tiebreak (common games).
10-6 - Miami would need Kansas City to lose both of their final 2 games and either Baltimore or Pittsburgh to finish 9-7. KC wins any tiebreak vs. Denver in the AFC West due to Division Record and we own the tiebreak over KC (common games). However if Baltimore and Pittsburgh both finish 10-6, Baltimore would win the division and in a 3 way race between KC/Miami/Pittsburgh . . . Pittsburgh is the 5 seed because of the best conference record (4 losses). Miami and KC would have 5 conference losses and Miami wins the tiebreak via common games to maintain the 6 seed.
9-7 - No chance to get the 5 seed

Hope this helps a bit. Today really hurt our 9-7 chances, but increased our 10-6 chances and our 5th seed chances, while also allowing us to control our own destiny no matter what.

Great day overall!
 
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NBP81

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So basically Miami wins 1 and Denver loses 1 and we're in... I like our chances...
 

NBP81

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Santa better step his ****ing game up!
 

Dolfan5000

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This should be stickied for the following week. It's all we need to know in terms of playoff possibilities. Great post Kdawg.
 

Kdawg954

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So basically Miami wins 1 and Denver loses 1 and we're in... I like our chances...
We could clinch next week with a Miami win and a Denver loss . . . that's it.

If NE wins at home vs. the Jets and Oakland loses against Indy . . . then NE is in the clear for home field and have nothing to play for in week 17, which would benefit us in trying to get that 5 seed.
 

Phinsfan93

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Winning in Buffalo basically guarantees us a spot because the Broncos are not beating the Chiefs and Raiders; which would eliminate us.

If Oakland wins their next two games then Brady is going to suit up against us in week 17 to try to get the #1 seed. We saw how well that worked for them last year :D
 

Phinsfan93

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A bit OT but if we win in Buffalo the NFL might as well hand Gase the COTY award.
 

Kdawg954

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Winning in Buffalo basically guarantees us a spot because the Broncos are not beating the Chiefs and Raiders; which would eliminate us.

If Oakland wins their next two games then Brady is going to suit up against us in week 17 to try to get the #1 seed. We saw how well that worked for them last year :D
Yea I would be shocked if Denver goes into KC and knocks them off next week. That place will be jumping. I think we win next Saturday and we will be talking about a playoff clinching win.
 

VBCheeseGrater

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Great post, well laid out.

Just officially controlling our own destiny feels great. 10 other AFC teams are looking up at us with envy.

We're back.
 

Phinsfan93

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Yea I would be shocked if Denver goes into KC and knocks them off next week. That place will be jumping. I think we win next Saturday and we will be talking about a playoff clinching win.
Any given Sunday unfortunately
 
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