Predicting The Dolphins 2018 Win Total | Page 10 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Predicting The Dolphins 2018 Win Total

Before all the injuries I predicted 11-5, now with even more injuries piling up, I think we are looking at 7-9 or 8-8...

Remaining schedule at 4-3:

@Texans: L (4-4)
Jets: W (5-4)
@Packers: L (5-5)
@Colts: L (5-6)
Bills: W (6-6)
Patriots: L (6-7)
@Vikings: L (6-8)
Jaguars: W (7-8)
@Bills: W (8-8)
 
dirkey said:
Yeah, fair point. It is very inconsistent, the game planning. But .. the one area where it's consistent is, the slow starts. That's just appalling, and it's showing no signs of improving. Bear in mind, we're basically halfway through season 3, and he still hasn't figure that out. Do we wait till the end of the season? What if that hasn't shown it, wait to halfway through next year etc?

I'm not advocating a coaching change (well, a new DC would be nice), don't get me wrong there. But questions need to be asked. And I think he absolutely needs to give up playcalling. There are so many issues with this team, I think we need a HC who is overseeing the whole thing. Right now, he's spending so much time working on the offensive side of the ball that he can't have enough time to give to the other side of the ball. And he's failing with the offensive side of the ball, however you look at it.

The NFL is a league of parity, in theory. What you need is a scheme, a coach, and a few talented players to push you over the edge. Well, we're in year 3 of Gase, and I don't see that we have any of those things yet. How long do we give him? I dunno, I am tired of the constant change. But I want to see improvement, or a philosophy. I'm not seeing that. It's all well and good to say his philosophy is about "culture", well, that's all well and good, but if you don't have scheme and talent to go with that, it's gonna get you nowhere.

You mention the Lions - they are in their 1st year under their HC for a start. So you'd expect some teething problems there. But, they've shown in a couple of games that they can really dominate teams. Make no mistake, they absolutely dominated the Fins yesterday. And they dominated the Pats. Have we dominated anyone this year, in year 3 of Gase? We haven't, we've had some good luck, we've had some bad luck.

My one question to you is ... are you concerned yet at all that you're viewing the start of a dynasty, or do you still firmly believe? (Don't let me down @Ray R ... )
Click to expand...

I blame my keyboard for that empty response!

I have always felt that it would take 5 years to become a functioning dynasty. It might take another two years for people to recognize it as such. Here is how I came up with a 5 year time line and some specific responses to the parts of your post I have highlighted.

Why 5 years? The HC needs to establish a winning team.
He needs not just good players (this is the NFL, not Madden) but focused, effective, reliable professionals. He needs a good coaching staff. Not all coaches will be available during his first year. He needs to establish a solid, functioning relationship with the front office to achieve good drafts, good trades and good salary cap maintenance.

Establishing a relationship with the front office:
Gase needs to do this the first year in order to assure good drafts, good trades and a beginning of reasonable salary cap maintenance.
This has been successfully completed!

Good players:
1) I assume we get 10 players through the draft and via UDFA's. I expect good drafts which means that 5 of those 10 players stay on the team 5 years or get traded for someone who makes up the difference in playing years). This means it will take 5 years to get 25 new players.
2) I assume Free agency will bring in 3 players a year who stay at least 2 years. This means after 5 years we will have on the field 6 FA's.
3) Accessing the players we have, who to keep and how we will use them:
  • 1st year 10-6. We were successful! (the HC modified his scheme to fit the players we had)
  • 2nd year 6-10. An exceptionally tough year where we identified problematic players due to their attitudes, field performance, following the play book and salary issues. As far as eliminating these player issues we were successful.
  • We were transitioning to some new players and trying to extend the capabilities of our playbook. It became very clear that some "better" players weren't making that transition. We needed to get rid of them and we did. This increased the number of positions that would require replacements and upgrades if available.
To date we have made good overall improvement to the core players on offense and defense. We have fewer holes and slightly more depth. We have been using our current draft selections successfully.

For these reasons I see it taking 5 years to establish and maintain the core body of players we will need.
So far so good!


"the slow starts. That's just appalling, and it's showing no signs of improving"
I feel slow starts are a function of game planning and I think that game planning and establishing a functioning core of players are too interrelated to say one is more important than the other. Each one makes allowances for what the other one lacks.

"Bear in mind, we're basically halfway through season 3, and he still hasn't figure that out. Do we wait till the end of the season"
So you say. I see that we are inconsistent. This is where a coach goes through his learning period of what he dreams about doing and how effective his implementations are working out. We have seen he can work with what he has. We have seen he can be effective using this team (ref. Dolphins Patriots game the end of last year). We were poised to do some serious wining with corrections we made to out OL. Now they are gone and we need to find another way.
I call this "growing Pains" consistent with where we are in the development of this team and its coaching staff.

"There are so many issues with this team, I think we need a HC who is overseeing the whole thing. Right now, he's spending so much time working on the offensive side of the ball that he can't have enough time to give to the other side of the ball"
I don't think that Gase is not the only HC that runs an offense. As to how involved he is with his defense, that's a question I don't have an answer for. I do believe his involvement in the draft is based on who is available and what the team(offense and defense) need, so to that extent I think he takes responsibility for the defense. As for letting people go or get traded, I also think he takes responsibility for the defense.

"The NFL is a league of parity, in theory. What you need is a scheme, a coach, and a few talented players to push you over the edge."
Some teams do that, but they don't seem to be at the top a very long time. I see a dynasty that will stay at the top a long time, but first we need to get there. We are doing fine so far, even with the 2017 year of dysfunctional everything.

"It's all well and good to say his philosophy is about "culture", well, that's all well and good, but if you don't have scheme and talent to go with that, it's gonna get you nowhere."
I agree 100%.

"You mention the Lions - they are in their 1st year under their HC for a start. So you'd expect some teething problems there. But, they've shown in a couple of games that they can really dominate teams."
Well, they did to us what we did to Patricia last year when he had a better team. They are also up and down and they are cutting what many of their fans think of as good players. Sound anything like this board? We are really back in the realm of game planning, aren't we?

"are you concerned yet at all that you're viewing the start of a dynasty, or do you still firmly believe"
Possibly just a little, but very little.

2017 probably set us back a year, but these things happen. Aren't we better this year than last year? I notice that even with the loss of key replacements on the OL, that our penalties are dropping and their effectiveness is still a little questionable.

Don't let one game twist you so emotionally that you can't see the goal line.

Lets review this after we get to the Superbowl!
 
Last edited:
dirkey said:
Another thing I'd like to add - I've seen people excusing Gase in various threads, saying "There's not enough talent". Well, Gase was the one who made the call to trade away the talent. He has his vision, which is high character, and I'm not one to say he's wrong. However, to give him a pass because we have "no talent" is wrong in my opinion, when he has traded away a number of talented players because they don't fit what he wants.
Click to expand...

I’m still not confident it’s all Gase/Grier making these offseason decisions to let the talent walk for “their guys”. If it’s true then he’ll be let go this offseason if they end up below 500. Sooner if they have no shot at 500.
 
Ray R said:
I can still be half right. We will see.
Click to expand...

Not this year. And without the answer at QB, I’m not sure about next year either. I really hoped RT would have his best season. Guess it’s not over yet, but he needs to come back really strong.
 
JahnDho said:
8-8
Click to expand...

Right now Miami is in shambles, but until a Gase team falls on it's face, and stays down, I have to believe there is a chance of reaching 9 or 10....on the other hand with a prediction of 8-8, you may actually be in very good shape...lol
 
dirkey said:
Yeah, fair point. It is very inconsistent, the game planning. But .. the one area where it's consistent is, the slow starts. That's just appalling, and it's showing no signs of improving. Bear in mind, we're basically halfway through season 3, and he still hasn't figure that out. Do we wait till the end of the season? What if that hasn't shown it, wait to halfway through next year etc?

I'm not advocating a coaching change (well, a new DC would be nice), don't get me wrong there. But questions need to be asked. And I think he absolutely needs to give up playcalling. There are so many issues with this team, I think we need a HC who is overseeing the whole thing. Right now, he's spending so much time working on the offensive side of the ball that he can't have enough time to give to the other side of the ball. And he's failing with the offensive side of the ball, however you look at it.

The NFL is a league of parity, in theory. What you need is a scheme, a coach, and a few talented players to push you over the edge. Well, we're in year 3 of Gase, and I don't see that we have any of those things yet. How long do we give him? I dunno, I am tired of the constant change. But I want to see improvement, or a philosophy. I'm not seeing that. It's all well and good to say his philosophy is about "culture", well, that's all well and good, but if you don't have scheme and talent to go with that, it's gonna get you nowhere.

You mention the Lions - they are in their 1st year under their HC for a start. So you'd expect some teething problems there. But, they've shown in a couple of games that they can really dominate teams. Make no mistake, they absolutely dominated the Fins yesterday. And they dominated the Pats. Have we dominated anyone this year, in year 3 of Gase? We haven't, we've had some good luck, we've had some bad luck.

My one question to you is ... are you concerned yet at all that you're viewing the start of a dynasty, or do you still firmly believe? (Don't let me down @Ray R ... )
Click to expand...
dirkey said:
Hmm ... @Ray R .. think you just highlighted mine and forgot to type anything :)
Click to expand...
dirkey said:
Hmm ... @Ray R .. think you just highlighted mine and forgot to type anything :)
Click to expand...
Look Again (Damn, I'm good!)
 
dirkey said:
Hmm ... @Ray R .. think you just highlighted mine and forgot to type anything :)
Click to expand...
I blame my keyboard for that empty response!

I have always felt that it would take 5 years to become a functioning dynasty. It might take another two years for people to recognize it as such. Here is how I came up with a 5 year time line and some specific responses to the parts of your post I have highlighted.

Why 5 years? The HC needs to establish a winning team.
He needs not just good players (this is the NFL, not Madden) but focused, effective, reliable professionals. He needs a good coaching staff. Not all coaches will be available during his first year. He needs to establish a solid, functioning relationship with the front office to achieve good drafts, good trades and good salary cap maintenance.

Establishing a relationship with the front office:
Gase needs to do this the first year in order to assure good drafts, good trades and a beginning of reasonable salary cap maintenance.
This has been successfully completed!

Good players:
1) I assume we get 10 players through the draft and via UDFA's. I expect good drafts which means that 5 of those 10 players stay on the team 5 years or get traded for someone who makes up the difference in playing years). This means it will take 5 years to get 25 new players.
2) I assume Free agency will bring in 3 players a year who stay at least 2 years. This means after 5 years we will have on the field 6 FA's.
3) Accessing the players we have, who to keep and how we will use them:
  • 1st year 10-6. We were successful! (the HC modified his scheme to fit the players we had)
  • 2nd year 6-10. An exceptionally tough year where we identified problematic players due to their attitudes, field performance, following the play book and salary issues. As far as eliminating these player issues we were successful.
  • We were transitioning to some new players and trying to extend the capabilities of our playbook. It became very clear that some "better" players weren't making that transition. We needed to get rid of them and we did. This increased the number of positions that would require replacements and upgrades if available.
To date we have made good overall improvement to the core players on offense and defense. We have fewer holes and slightly more depth. We have been using our current draft selections successfully.

For these reasons I see it taking 5 years to establish and maintain the core body of players we will need.
So far so good!


"the slow starts. That's just appalling, and it's showing no signs of improving"
I feel slow starts are a function of game planning and I think that game planning and establishing a functioning core of players are too interrelated to say one is more important than the other. Each one makes allowances for what the other one lacks.

"Bear in mind, we're basically halfway through season 3, and he still hasn't figure that out. Do we wait till the end of the season"
So you say. I see that we are inconsistent. This is where a coach goes through his learning period of what he dreams about doing and how effective his implementations are working out. We have seen he can work with what he has. We have seen he can be effective using this team (ref. Dolphins Patriots game the end of last year). We were poised to do some serious wining with corrections we made to out OL. Now they are gone and we need to find another way.
I call this "growing Pains" consistent with where we are in the development of this team and its coaching staff.

"There are so many issues with this team, I think we need a HC who is overseeing the whole thing. Right now, he's spending so much time working on the offensive side of the ball that he can't have enough time to give to the other side of the ball"
I don't think that Gase is not the only HC that runs an offense. As to how involved he is with his defense, that's a question I don't have an answer for. I do believe his involvement in the draft is based on who is available and what the team(offense and defense) need, so to that extent I think he takes responsibility for the defense. As for letting people go or get traded, I also think he takes responsibility for the defense.

"The NFL is a league of parity, in theory. What you need is a scheme, a coach, and a few talented players to push you over the edge."
Some teams do that, but they don't seem to be at the top a very long time. I see a dynasty that will stay at the top a long time, but first we need to get there. We are doing fine so far, even with the 2017 year of dysfunctional everything.

"It's all well and good to say his philosophy is about "culture", well, that's all well and good, but if you don't have scheme and talent to go with that, it's gonna get you nowhere."
I agree 100%.

"You mention the Lions - they are in their 1st year under their HC for a start. So you'd expect some teething problems there. But, they've shown in a couple of games that they can really dominate teams."
Well, they did to us what we did to Patricia last year when he had a better team. They are also up and down and they are cutting what many of their fans think of as good players. Sound anything like this board? We are really back in the realm of game planning, aren't we?

"are you concerned yet at all that you're viewing the start of a dynasty, or do you still firmly believe"
Possibly just a little, but very little.

2017 probably set us back a year, but these things happen. Aren't we better this year than last year? I notice that even with the loss of key replacements on the OL, that our penalties are dropping and their effectiveness is still a little questionable.

Don't let one game twist you so emotionally that you can't see the goal line.

Lets review this after we get to the Superbowl!
 
dirkey said:
Hehe, nice editing.

Ahhhhh. Thanks for that ... I needed that dose of optimism. Not saying I believe it all, but at least you made me feel better.
Click to expand...

About the editing - I lost the original response n the dark clouds of the internet and it was the easiest way to recover.
 
SkapePhin said:
Before all the injuries I predicted 11-5, now with even more injuries piling up, I think we are looking at 7-9 or 8-8...

Remaining schedule at 4-3:

@Texans: L (4-4)
Jets: W (5-4)
@Packers: L (5-5)
@Colts: L (5-6)
Bills: W (6-6)
Patriots: L (6-7)
@Vikings: L (6-8)
Jaguars: W (7-8)
@Bills: W (8-8)
Click to expand...

You’re way too smart to think we were ever going 11-5 Skape come on bro lol
 
fishfanmiami said:
At this moment it is all just opinion and a sprinkling of data to support that opinion on both sides.
No one is right or wrong and the truth will only come at the seasons end looking back on our record.
It's fun to predict but no one really knows what the future brings and to claim you do is ridiculous.
I like to look at things optimistically and hope for the best. Makes me excited going into a new season. Yea I'm wrong a lot but I can live with that. i believe that's being a fan and not being so analytical it sucks any joy out of the upcoming season before it even starts.
Click to expand...

Not luck that I’m being proven right. Looking at the data, talent, coaching, leadership from players, coaches, and front office. This team is average. Never thought they would be horrible. They make some exciting plays. Have some exciting playmakers. They just get beat and need big plays to win. Not well rounded enough. No pressure from the line, McMillan is just Avg, o-line avg to below avg, WR make big plays but no real consistent go to guy/chain mover. No true WR1. QB play is avg at best. All the things I was saying are showing up in the games. Not because I got lucky, it’s because I wasn’t delussional. I took a rational approach toward this team and drew logical conclusions.

I actually hope Gase sticks. I don’t think he’s the problem. Talent is the biggest issue right now. Who’s responsible for that? Maybe Gase/Grier this past year. But prior to that and to some degree of influence, would be TBomb. Ross should let him go at some point this season. Put the entire organization on notice. The sooner the better.
 
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