Prediction Machine on Dolphins Season

[So Be]

HERE ARE WIN-LIKELIHOOD PERCENTAGES FOR EVERY DOLPHINS GAME: PredictionMachine.com computers replayed the 2014 season 50,000 times and spit out an average of 7.4 victories for the
Dolphins -- foretelling the typical competitive-but-no-playoffs season. Miami is given a 12.2 percent chance to win the AFC East and a 13.9% shot at a wild card -- a combined postseason likelihood of 26.1%. The Dolphins are given a 0.4% chance -- less than half of 1 percent -- to win the Super Bowl. Here are game-by-game win percentages, from likeliest victory to unlikeliest: 60.2% vs. Bills (Game 10); 58.5% @ Jaguars (7); 55.0% vs. Jets (16); 54.2% @ Raiders (4); 54.1 @ Jets (12); 53.8% vs. Chiefs (3); 52.5% vs. Vikings (15); 50.8% @ Bills (2); 49.7% vs. Ravens (13); 43.7% vs. Chargers (8); 42.3% @ Bears (6); 39.3% vs. Packers (5); 38.5% vs. Patriots (1); 36.6% @ Lions (9); 29.3% @ Patriots (14); and 17.2% @ Broncos (11). PredictionMachine says the six AFC playoff teams in order will be Broncos, Patriots, Colts, Bengals, Chargers and Texans. For the NFC it's Saints, Seahawks, Giants, Packers, 49ers and Eagles. Most likely Super Bowl champions are the Broncos (25.1%), Seahawks to repeat (22.1%), Saints (15.8%) and Patriots (8.8%).

Read more here: http://blogs.herald.com/random_evidence/2014/08/xxx-xxx-xx-xx-x-x.html#storylink=cpy
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[roy_miami]

No way are we such dogs in any of our home games. The Patriots will be the toughest and I would estimate even if we're dogs its closer to 45% than 35%. I would say all of their numbers are on the low side except maybe @ the Patriots and Broncos. I would say all in all we're coin flips vs AFC West and NFC North, and their numbers are way off of that.

 

[MD]

Though not one to pay much attention to pre season predictions, the Texans being a playoff team is ridiculous.

 

[Bumpus]

According to that, we're 3-1 at the bye ... When we start getting players back.

Yet, we're supposed to average 7.4 wins?



Yep, seems legit.

 

[J. David Wannyheimer]

According to that, we're 3-1 at the bye ... When we start getting players back.

Yet, we're supposed to average 7.4 wins?



Yep, seems legit.

The players we get back after the bye are a marginal safety and a non-factor DE.

---------- Post added at 09:52 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:52 AM ----------

Though not one to pay much attention to pre season predictions, the Texans being a playoff team is ridiculous.

That team will be lucky to win 5 games with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB.

 

[Sons Of Shula]

Looks like generic predictions based solely on last years results. Probably just used the retired and retreaded version of the BCS machine.

 

[hoops]

here's my predictions...the offense will carry this team this year...the lb unit no matter what they put out there will be the sore spot all season...and this team will struggle to get off the field on 3rd downs cause there won't be many long downs and distances to the sticks on them

tannehill throws for 30 plus tds and less than 15 ints in this qb friendly system if he stays healthy...and takes the next step...landry wins the punt return job and from week 1 gets wr slot run in certain sets...if we suffer a slot injury he steps right in like we never missed a thing and balls out

this team struggles in short yardage to run the ball once again...mike wallace if he stays healthy goes for 10 tds...the oc proves legit...dion jordan does not provide 8 sacks in the 12 games he plays in

miami goes into next offseason looking for mike lb, rb, safety, and tight end as it's 4 biggest needs...

i probably should wait til the oline faces a real pass rushing talent front before i cross that off the list of problems but we won't really see one in the preseason...and i think the scheme can and will hide some things and i believe in the young talent i guess

 

[DuderinoN703]

What were the predictions from this "machine" on most teams in 2013?

 

[roy_miami]

here's my predictions...the offense will carry this team this year...the lb unit no matter what they put out there will be the sore spot all season...and this team will struggle to get off the field on 3rd downs cause there won't be many long downs and distances to the sticks on them

tannehill throws for 30 plus tds and less than 15 ints in this qb friendly system if he stays healthy...and takes the next step...landry wins the punt return job and from week 1 gets wr slot run in certain sets...if we suffer a slot injury he steps right in like we never missed a thing and balls out

this team struggles in short yardage to run the ball once again...mike wallace if he stays healthy goes for 10 tds...the oc proves legit...dion jordan does not provide 8 sacks in the 12 games he plays in

miami goes into next offseason looking for mike lb, rb, safety, and tight end as it's 4 biggest needs...

i probably should wait til the oline faces a real pass rushing talent front before i cross that off the list of problems but we won't really see one in the preseason...and i think the scheme can and will hide some things and i believe in the young talent i guess

I agree with most of this except I think we'll be a HELL of a lot better in picking up a single yard when needed. Supposedly Lazor's specialty is perfecting the QB sneak. Last year we looked like chickens with our heads cut off at times when all we needed was a yard.

I had high hopes for Sturgis and thought he could be a difference maker now that he's fully healed, but it sounds like he's hurt again. :idk:

 

[hoops]

I agree with most of this except I think we'll be a HELL of a lot better in picking up a single yard when needed. Supposedly Lazor's specialty is perfecting the QB sneak. Last year we looked like chickens with our heads cut off at times when all we needed was a yard.

I had high hopes for Sturgis and thought he could be a difference maker now that he's fully healed, but it sounds like he's hurt again. :idk:

qb sneak is not a handoff to the half back in short yardage...hopefully lazor is smart enough to use his 6 ft 4 228 lb qb to his advantage in that short yardage...i just mean this team will have a hard time running the ball in short yardage where the ball goes to the backfield...shotgun sets or not...i don't see the physical win up front group to win a lot of one on one in the trenches for it

 

[Hayden Fox]

It is going out on a limb that the Fins win 7 games...lol. When does that not happen. Never great, but never awful.

 

[enigmatics]

Well we just cut Devlin so I say 2 wins.

 

[roy_miami]

One thing I'll say is while I think the percentages for each individual game is low and I think we probably come out closer to 8.5 than 7.5 I agree with the 25% chance to get into the playoffs. But that is if we show no marked improvement. On the other hand if Lazor is much better, if Hickey is much better, if Tannehill is much better and if the defense takes another step up I would say we have more like a 75% shot to make it.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

This looks like a playoff team on paper, although we may have to put up a lot of points to do that. We are not a good team at stopping the run and that looks like the weakness right now. On the other side of the ball, however, I expect Tannehill to make big strides and the running game to be better.

In other words, the Dolphins make it to the playoff on the strength of the offense! I'm going 10-6 with a first round playoff win.

 

[So Be]

here's my predictions...the offense will carry this team this year...the lb unit no matter what they put out there will be the sore spot all season...and this team will struggle to get off the field on 3rd downs cause there won't be many long downs and distances to the sticks on them

tannehill throws for 30 plus tds and less than 15 ints in this qb friendly system if he stays healthy...and takes the next step...landry wins the punt return job and from week 1 gets wr slot run in certain sets...if we suffer a slot injury he steps right in like we never missed a thing and balls out

this team struggles in short yardage to run the ball once again...mike wallace if he stays healthy goes for 10 tds...the oc proves legit...dion jordan does not provide 8 sacks in the 12 games he plays in

miami goes into next offseason looking for mike lb, rb, safety, and tight end as it's 4 biggest needs...

i probably should wait til the oline faces a real pass rushing talent front before i cross that off the list of problems but we won't really see one in the preseason...and i think the scheme can and will hide some things and i believe in the young talent i guess

I can't see the LB's being as bad as last year. I can see us picking up some tuff yards with Colledge, Pouncey, and Smith but not with Satele and Dallas (so far).