Putting Stats Aside, Are the Phins Really being Outplayed, Yet Finding Ways to Win? | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Putting Stats Aside, Are the Phins Really being Outplayed, Yet Finding Ways to Win?

It's possible that having just started the season has an effect that diminishes as the season progresses, although with there being similar numbers of teams that finish seasons as much above the overall season leader, that downward slope likely isn't there.

I just went back and looked at three sets of stats from 2012: Red zone percentage, # of red zone touchdowns scored, and overall offensive touchdowns scored.

There was -- unsurprisingly -- a great deal of overlap between the top 10 teams in each category.

Of the top 10 teams in the number of red zone touchdowns scored per game, seven of them were top 10 in red zone percentage for the season.

Similarly, of the top 10 teams in overall touchdowns scored per game, seven of them were top 10 in red zone percentage.

The three teams exempt from each list were different, by the way, which I found interesting.

Anyway, what this suggests is that the teams that convert red zone possessions into red zone touchdowns at a high rate are the ones that score the most touchdowns. Not just red zone touchdowns, but overall touchdowns. Essentially what it suggests is that most touchdowns are scored from the red zone. And what that suggests is that red zone possessions themselves are not a random event. They're either functionally uniform across the league or correlated to the teams that can convert them into touchdowns at a high %.

Whichever it is, it appears that if you have a high red zone percentage, chances are you are scoring a lot of touchdowns regardless of other variables, which would contradict my earlier point that we need to be focused on moving the ball more consistently to create more red zone chances. As long as our percentage stays up, it doesn't seem to matter.
 
I think we were lucky to win the Atlanta game, but I'm not convinced that we're being outplayed.

We're giving the ball back to the opposing team for long spells, so that creates the illusion of us being dominated. There are two reasons for that, one positive and one negative.

The negative one is tackling. If our tackling improves, we would be dominating more statistical categories that we do. We're not hanging onto guys and that's extending drives for opponents. But the positive reason is our third down conversion efficiency and our redzone efficiency. We basically just score very quickly and hand the ball back. That's a great feature to have in a team, which ill never show up on the gaudy stats.

Our defense is excelling at the two things all defenses are supposed to do: stop opponents scoring and give the ball back to the offense. Any other stat you care to dream up for defenses is irrelevant.

So, tackling issues aside, I don't believe we're being outplayed at all. People just don't understand our system.
 
Just a few points I would like to make.

1. We have played the best in the NFL compared to some of these other teams. I am sure a gameplan was in place to bend not break. keep big plays from happening. so far successful

2. Our two minute offense is humming. I believe everytime we have had the ball last before half or end of game, we have scored. Which means defenses are stopping blitzing or getting burned

3. We have a 50% conversion rate on 3rd down, which could be better, but once again, we are not playing the jets here.

4. We are scoring 24.7 points per game avg. That is success to me since this team has not been in that territory since D. Marino days I think.
 
3. We have a 50% conversion rate on 3rd down, which could be better, but once again, we are not playing the jets here..

That's a great percentage and we're 3rd in the league with it. Historically, nobody in the league breaks 50% over a full season. We're at 50% through 3 games.
 
You'd have no idea for certain that those things were going on unless you measured them statistically and compared them statistically to the teams the Dolphins have played.
Statistics are a valuable tool but can't take human factor in to consideration.
 
You said many intelligent things.

We are not used to a winner.

Shula did what Philbin is doing now - every year!

We would be predicted to be an average or worse team and Shula would get unexpected players to rise up and he would get expected players to outperform those expectations.

Philbin is emulating Shula's focus on no penalties and high discipline.

Philbin has a rat free locker room.

This team will continue to improve.

We won 3 games because we were disciplined, believed in ourselves, were better prepared and took advantage of the opportunities that we created.

So many of us are used to the BRICKHEADS like Wannstadt who tried to use a power running game to win football in an era when more and more the game was oriented towards passing.

These brickheads set us all back. But those of near grandpas (40 + years of age) remember Shula did what Philbin is doing now year in and year out. And believe the idiots in the media did the same thing to us - it just took days for newspapers to come out for them to say their idiotic comments.

You made a great write-up - and those Dolphin fans on this site downing you for it need to be a bit more respectful - they do not need to agree just be respectful - just saying!


Nope, I'm really NOT concerned. I like our chances this year (11-5), but for reasons that were unexpected to begin the season. What I speculate about in my original post is what those reasons might be, despite the fact that our stats suck in a lot of areas as they are traditionally measured.
 
Sounds a bit like the X-Files to me. Sorry but I don't think I agree with you. We are not the first team to start the season 3-0 having been out gained in all three games. The Cardinals did it the other year, they finished with a not so good record. I can tell you this, we will not continue to win if we continue to get out gained. It is nice to get our yards when we need them and score late in both halves, but if that is what we are planning to do for the rest of the year, it won't end pretty.

Bottom line is we are going to have to start gaining more yards and or giving up less, or we are going to have to go back to feeling comfortable losing more than we win. I for one love the feeling of being undefeated but I have no doubt that if we continue to gain fewer yards than the teams we play our winning streak will soon be a distant memory.
Again, I'm speculating . . . searching for reasons for our wins against last years playoff teams. If these reasons prove to be telling, why wouldn't we have a chance to beat the Saints in their house? Also, suppose this is just a starting point and not a position from which we fall? Suppose its a strong foundation from which we ultimately thrive? I think I like being in a position to win any game, especially when I have the weapons to do it.
 
It depends on whether you consider our success in the Red Zone as a feature of the team or a statistical aberration that's likely to correct itself. For what it's worth, I think it's the latter. Consider that right now we're converting in the red zone 87.5% of the time. Last year no team converted more than 68.52% of the time (Packers). If we want to keep scoring (we're like 8th or 9th in the league in scoring, I think, and that's without a defensive or special teams touchdown) we'll have to move the ball more consistently. It's just a statistical reality.

In fact, of the seven undefeated teams in the league right now, the Dolphins are last in yards per game (and 26th overall). It needs to be better.

The positive of course is that we've won three games and the team has shown moxie in clutch situations. It hasn't been a series of flukes or unrepeatable circumstances or the windfall from an easy schedule. It's more like a tennis player who's not creating many break point chances but is converting most of them versus a player who's creating tons of chances but not converting. In the short run the former player might steal wins or even a tournament or two. But over the long run the second player is likely to be more successful.

It's not just red zone scoring. Our 3rd down performance is also unsustainably high, as well as our FG% made vs FG% made against. Even penalties.

We might be good in all of those areas, but we're not that good. In other words, breaks are bound to go against us a bit more. People love to think it's being clutch that matters. Unfortunately, it's the way the ball bounces. Sometimes it goes your way, sometimes not. The best teams avoid putting themselves into situations where "clutchness" will decide the game and we have not been able to do that in the last two games.

The good news is that we're definitely much better than last year. I do expect a winning season.
 
It sounds like you're voicing a concern about the team but then talking yourself out of being concerned about it by pointing at the team's record exclusively?

This is pretty much the argument about the oline...Sure it sucks but we are 3-0 so it validates everything certain people have said that you need to be successful in the NFL. To me success is a lombardi trophy. All the "we made the playoffs 20 years in a row" arguments are lame and just end up with a lower draft pics.
 
I didnt get that all from the reading.
It sounds like you're voicing a concern about the team but then talking yourself out of being concerned about it by pointing at the team's record exclusively?


---------- Post added at 01:00 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:59 PM ----------

When you win the turnover battle, are efficient in the redzone, on 3d and 4th down as well, only give up 16 points in the 2nd half with only 3 of those being in the 4th quarter, don't commit stupid penalties odds are you're going to win regardless of being outgained.

Relying on statistical data solely determine the outcome of a football game is foolish.

Whats the WPA value of the OP's original post? :d-day:
 
Honestly it comes down to our coach being more aggressive about putting points on the board, our offense having the capabilityto put points up and our defense coming up with stops at big moments. In years past our coaches t=run out the clock at the end of the half because it was deemed too dangerous to run a two minute offense. Philbin already used timeouts at the end of the half in two games to put up field goals before the end of the half. Very important filed goals in the grand scheme. Our offense has the capabilty to get those points now if we are close at the end of the games because it's good enough to capatilize on 4 down territory. Last but not least last week the defense was gassed because it spent far too much time on the field. That is not strategy. Bend but don't break was out of neccessity it asn't strategy because we were playing from behind and have been struggling running the ball. I'm not saying your totally wrong it's just not that simple. The good thing is we can and will be a lot better. Specially in the next several years. This team should be much better over the next several years. This year we should make the playoffs and we will gain some much needed experience but I don't think we are ready to win it all this year. Unless we get real lucky.
 
It's not just red zone scoring. Our 3rd down performance is also unsustainably high, as well as our FG% made vs FG% made against. Even penalties.

We might be good in all of those areas, but we're not that good. In other words, breaks are bound to go against us a bit more. People love to think it's being clutch that matters. Unfortunately, it's the way the ball bounces. Sometimes it goes your way, sometimes not. The best teams avoid putting themselves into situations where "clutchness" will decide the game and we have not been able to do that in the last two games.

The good news is that we're definitely much better than last year. I do expect a winning season.

What the data suggests is that there is a very high correlation between red zone percentage and scoring touchdowns regardless of other variables (like 3rd down percentage). Either teams are getting into the red zone at about the same rate all over the league or a team's success in the red zone is indicative of their success on other parts of the field. That's what the data is saying.
 
Some folks are throwing out the notion that we are being outgained and our league wide rankings reflect that. Could this not have something to do with the strength of our early schedule (compared to other teams), and also right itself by season end? I don't think is as big of an issue currently, as some are making it out to be.
 
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This is pretty much the argument about the oline...Sure it sucks but we are 3-0 so it validates everything certain people have said that you need to be successful in the NFL. To me success is a lombardi trophy. All the "we made the playoffs 20 years in a row" arguments are lame and just end up with a lower draft pics.

You are the first to mention our OL in this entire thread, pretty sure.
 
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