Qb Pick Now, Or Qb Pick Next Draft?

[BlueFin]

Mahomes is prototypical, around 6-3, 225. Second, Mahomes in twelve games threw the ball 591 times and rushed 130 times, didn't get hurt. That's a tremendous contribution. He carried the team with his arm and frame. And performed great, scored, did't throw interceptions, was decisive, did't get sacked, performed great. He had everything you want in a QB, except team wins.

No, Wilson was not as good a prospect as Luck, or Mahomes, because of the volume. Wilson had low volume and was not prototypical, But Wilson could rush and not get hurt. Wilson had a 140 rush attempt 9 rush TD season in college, and did not get hurt. That's 11 rushing attempts a game. The low volume translated early on in his career in the NFL. Seahawks were a heavy run team. It is certainly a concern when you are drafting high, they need to have something extra. and Wilson had it. But still ,they had to adjust the offense, become run heavy, he couldn't carry the large load initially, at good efficiency. It would be a mess.

Murray is similar. He is not prototypical, does not have the frame. Adjusted for 16 games, his volume was 431 attempts. That's borderline, okay. For example, they can play him at 30 attempts a game, 480 for the year, they can raise his volume a bit if need be without sacrificing efficiency, and the rest he can do with his legs. He rushed for a 1000 yards at 140 attempts, that's ten a game. and did not get hurt. He has something extra, he has the juice to be a top pick.

However, in the draft, if there is a prototypical quarterback, 6-3, 230, who threw the ball 500 times and rushed 80 times, and carried the team, and at good efficiency and scoring, is young, a winner, all that, you pick that guy over Murray. Just like you pick Luck over Wilson, any day. You don't mess around.

The thing that could push Wilson over Luck for some teams was if they were run heavy and did not need volume passer. Luck was very poor in college on third downs, whereas Wilson is the historical great on third downs in college, he thrived on third downs.

Unfortunately, in this draft there isn't a prototypical qb to clearly challenge Murray. Haskins has some risks because of the OSU offense, and Lock was not as efficient, therefore, Murray is the top pick and Haskins is close second. Murray was also excellent on third downs. Haskins was good.
And whoever drafts Murray will have to mainly run the ball and manage his passing a little bit, not put too much on his plate initially. He is not Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Mahomes, Brady, just yet.

I think Lock is that guy....Watched every throw in 3 games and the only problem I saw with his efficiency was his receivers drops... which were numerous.

After I noted that .... I read Jerimiahs scouting report pre-2018 season and he loves him... compared him to Mahomes and also noted drops in the two games he watched from 2017.

 

[LargoFin]

I think Lock is that guy....Watched every throw in 3 games and the only problem I saw with his efficiency was his receivers drops... which were numerous.

After I noted that .... I read Jerimiahs scouting report pre-2018 season and he loves him... compared him to Mahomes and also noted drops in the two games he watched from 2017.

NO, he is not Mahomes because he has not done it like Mahomes in college.
Mahomes had 590 attempts 130 rushes for positive yardage in 12 games.
Lock had 437 attempts and 55 rushes in 13 games. And Mahomes was more efficient at that large difference in contribution.
Would Lock's efficiency suffer if he had to throw 590 times and rush 130 in a 12 game season? Would he get hurt? I don't know. I don't care. He is not Mahomes, and he is not as good as Mahomes. He did not carry the offense like Mahomes. He wasn't a gangsta like Mahomes.


Bottom line is this, we need a phenom on a rookie contract, not the second contract, we do not need or want a developmental guy who maybe good 5 years from now. We do not draft with those expectations.
The question is whether Drew Lock is worthy of a top pick, whether he is that phenom on a rookie contract. The answer is no, he is not! The reason is his efficiency. He is not efficient enough.


Drew Lock is prototypical, 6-4, 230. Check. We want that.
Drew Lock has a gun and slings it all over the field. Check. Just like Mahomes. We want that.
Drew Lock had a 7-6 season last year. That's okay. Nothing special. We certainly do not want that. We want a QB who had a 14-1 season. But whatever.
Drew is 23 years of age. That's good. He is not too old, 24 and over on draft day. We want that.
Drew Lock had started for multiple seasons in college. We want that. That's good.
Drew Lock has good athleticism. We want that.
Drew Lock can throw for 540-600 attempts in a 16 game season. Check.
So far so good in looking for the phenom, he checks the boxes.

Here come the problems.
Drew Lock had 62.9% completions in his last season. That's not good. I am willing to give him 63% completions, round it off, but we want over 63%. We do not want borderline. We need to know that the completion percentage is good, and here we are neither here nor there. We do not know where he is trending.

Drew Lock scored 28 TDs on 437 attempts, that is 15.6 attempts per TD. That's not good. Anything over 15 is not good. He is trending into garbage area of Allen, Rosen, Darnold, he can't score enough, and he is not a runner who can score in other ways.
We need to know that he can score like a phenom, and here again we are borderline.

As far as picks and sacks, he is excellent. Phenom.

The problem is in two areas of completion percentage and scoring he is just not a phenom, he is not gangsta enough. He is borderline. And now we do not know what we are getting, and that's a problem. How many years will it take him to improve, to become gangsta? Who the fk knows!


Should the Dolphins move up for Drew Lock? Yes they should, they need a QB and he is good enough. He is not Manning, Luck, Wilson, Roethlisberger, but he is good enough. Fk it! He is a top three player in the draft with Murray and Haskins.
He is better than Darnold, Allen, Rosen. Better than Tannehill coming out.

One thing to note about Lock is that he played in a ton of third down situations, 27% of his attempts were third down, and he did well, his completion percentage did not suffer much, he scored well on third downs.


I agree with Chris Simms in general, discussing the top prospects, at the 19 minute mark.

 

[BlueFin]

NO, he is not Mahomes because he has not done it like Mahomes in college.
Mahomes had 590 attempts 130 rushes for positive yardage in 12 games.
Lock had 437 attempts and 55 rushes in 13 games. And Mahomes was more efficient at that large difference in contribution.
Would Lock's efficiency suffer if he had to throw 590 times and rush 130 in a 12 game season? Would he get hurt? I don't know. I don't care. He is not Mahomes, and he is not as good as Mahomes. He did not carry the offense like Mahomes. He wasn't a gangsta like Mahomes.


Bottom line is this, we need a phenom on a rookie contract, not the second contract, we do not need or want a developmental guy who maybe good 5 years from now. We do not draft with those expectations.
The question is whether Drew Lock is worthy of a top pick, whether he is that phenom on a rookie contract. The answer is no, he is not! The reason is his efficiency. He is not efficient enough.


Drew Lock is prototypical, 6-4, 230. Check. We want that.
Drew Lock has a gun and slings it all over the field. Check. Just like Mahomes. We want that.
Drew Lock had a 7-6 season last year. That's okay. Nothing special. We certainly do not want that. We want a QB who had a 14-1 season. But whatever.
Drew is 23 years of age. That's good. He is not too old, 24 and over on draft day. We want that.
Drew Lock had started for multiple seasons in college. We want that. That's good.
Drew Lock has good athleticism. We want that.
Drew Lock can throw for 540-600 attempts in a 16 game season. Check.
So far so good in looking for the phenom, he checks the boxes.

Here come the problems.
Drew Lock had 62.9% completions in his last season. That's not good. I am willing to give him 63% completions, round it off, but we want over 63%. We do not want borderline. We need to know that the completion percentage is good, and here we are neither here nor there. We do not know where he is trending.

Drew Lock scored 28 TDs on 437 attempts, that is 15.6 attempts per TD. That's not good. Anything over 15 is not good. He is trending into garbage area of Allen, Rosen, Darnold, he can't score enough, and he is not a runner who can score in other ways.
We need to know that he can score like a phenom, and here again we are borderline.

As far as picks and sacks, he is excellent. Phenom.

The problem is in two areas of completion percentage and scoring he is just not a phenom, he is not gangsta enough. He is borderline. And now we do not know what we are getting, and that's a problem. How many years will it take him to improve, to become gangsta? Who the fk knows!


Should the Dolphins move up for Drew Lock? Yes they should, they need a QB and he is good enough. He is not Manning, Luck, Wilson, Roethlisberger, but he is good enough. Fk it! He is a top three player in the draft with Murray and Haskins.
He is better than Darnold, Allen, Rosen. Better than Tannehill coming out.

One thing to note about Lock is that he played in a ton of third down situations, 27% of his attempts were third down, and he did well, his completion percentage did not suffer much, he scored well on third downs.


I agree with Chris Simms in general, discussing the top prospects, at the 19 minute mark.

Nice reply...let me counter your arguments...Mahomes played in a much weaker conference than Drew Lock, where most weeks he was playing a deeper football team than his.

And.... I have watched every throw in 3 games from 2018....(Purdue, Florida and Tennessee)...and I noticed an abnormal number of drops from his receivers... Daniel Jeremiah did a scouting report on his 2017 season... where he threw 44 touchdown passes...he claimed to watch 2 games and noticed a lot of drops(enough to mention it)....So, I would submit that his completion percentage would be a lot better with better receivers....and he scored a lot of touchdowns(I think #2 in SEC history in 2017?)

Finally....We had another great QB here who we were able to obtain due to less than stellar senior season with the 27th pick in round 1...I would suggest that while Drew Locks 2018 was less impressive than his 2017... he still played well with I think inferior talent around him than most of his opponents.

He closed his Missouri career out with 4 straight wins leading into the bowl game....beating Florida, Vanderbilt, Arkansas....and putting 50 on Tennessee... lost a close bowl game to Oklahoma State....33 plus points in every game!

 

[LargoFin]

I'm not willing to go into excuses for Drew Lock about tough defenses and easy defenses and drops.

Bottom line for me is, he is not as good as Luck, Wilson, Roehtlisberger which is what we want. Nonetheless, Drew Lock is better than a lot of NFL quarterbacks.
Going through the list, I'd put Wilson, Goff, Mahomes, Roethlisberger, Luck above him and not much else. (Brady is old, Rodgers wasn't a phenom, and he has not had good last two years, Brees is also approaching retirement.)

Lock is better than 25 starting quarterbacks, better talent. Even with the borderline performance in those categories. (And so are Murray and Haskins.) And that is worth moving up for. They must move up for that, otherwise they are idiots, as simple as that.

 

[BlueFin]

I'm not willing to go into excuses for Drew Lock about tough defenses and easy defenses and drops.

Bottom line for me is, he is not as good as Luck, Wilson, Roehtlisberger which is what we want. Nonetheless, Drew Lock is better than a lot of NFL quarterbacks.
Going through the list, I'd put Wilson, Goff, Mahomes, Roethlisberger, Luck above him and not much else. (Brady is old, Rodgers wasn't a phenom, and he has not had good last two years, Brees is also approaching retirement.)

Lock is better than 25 starting quarterbacks, better talent. Even with the borderline performance in those categories. (And so are Murray and Haskins.) And that is worth moving up for. They must move up for that, otherwise they are idiots, as simple as that.

Well... your attacking completion percentage... not just me... but NFL.com’s top scout(former NFL scout as well)... noticed the poor hands in his receiving Corp..... that matters... still a team game.

I watched him play and was very impressed... you can say he’s not this or not that... and it means nothing...he will write his own story.

My point is... this is a very talented QB with attributes I like for an NFL prospect!

 

[BlueFin]

Well... your attacking completion percentage... not just me... but NFL.com’s top scout(former NFL scout as well)... noticed the poor hands in his receiving Corp..... that matters... still a team game.

I watched him play and was very impressed... you can say he’s not this or not that... and it means nothing...he will write his own story.

My point is... this is a very talented QB with attributes I like for an NFL prospect!

Also... not willing to say he is not as good as the Quarterbacks you mentioned... time will tell... you can’t make those statements about a college QB.

We’re looking for a prospect with the potential to excell in the NFL... I think he is that!

 

[cullenbigcstill]

The more I watch of Easton Schtick, CKs guy, the more I want him. Hes got some Majomes, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield to him as well as Marino with pocket presence. Its lower level ball but theres a lot of talent down there. Hed come in and electrify this fan base!