Mahomes is prototypical, around 6-3, 225. Second, Mahomes in twelve games threw the ball 591 times and rushed 130 times, didn't get hurt. That's a tremendous contribution. He carried the team with his arm and frame. And performed great, scored, did't throw interceptions, was decisive, did't get sacked, performed great. He had everything you want in a QB, except team wins.
No, Wilson was not as good a prospect as Luck, or Mahomes, because of the volume. Wilson had low volume and was not prototypical, But Wilson could rush and not get hurt. Wilson had a 140 rush attempt 9 rush TD season in college, and did not get hurt. That's 11 rushing attempts a game. The low volume translated early on in his career in the NFL. Seahawks were a heavy run team. It is certainly a concern when you are drafting high, they need to have something extra. and Wilson had it. But still ,they had to adjust the offense, become run heavy, he couldn't carry the large load initially, at good efficiency. It would be a mess.
Murray is similar. He is not prototypical, does not have the frame. Adjusted for 16 games, his volume was 431 attempts. That's borderline, okay. For example, they can play him at 30 attempts a game, 480 for the year, they can raise his volume a bit if need be without sacrificing efficiency, and the rest he can do with his legs. He rushed for a 1000 yards at 140 attempts, that's ten a game. and did not get hurt. He has something extra, he has the juice to be a top pick.
However, in the draft, if there is a prototypical quarterback, 6-3, 230, who threw the ball 500 times and rushed 80 times, and carried the team, and at good efficiency and scoring, is young, a winner, all that, you pick that guy over Murray. Just like you pick Luck over Wilson, any day. You don't mess around.
The thing that could push Wilson over Luck for some teams was if they were run heavy and did not need volume passer. Luck was very poor in college on third downs, whereas Wilson is the historical great on third downs in college, he thrived on third downs.
Unfortunately, in this draft there isn't a prototypical qb to clearly challenge Murray. Haskins has some risks because of the OSU offense, and Lock was not as efficient, therefore, Murray is the top pick and Haskins is close second. Murray was also excellent on third downs. Haskins was good.
And whoever drafts Murray will have to mainly run the ball and manage his passing a little bit, not put too much on his plate initially. He is not Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Mahomes, Brady, just yet.
I think Lock is that guy....Watched every throw in 3 games and the only problem I saw with his efficiency was his receivers drops... which were numerous.
After I noted that .... I read Jerimiahs scouting report pre-2018 season and he loves him... compared him to Mahomes and also noted drops in the two games he watched from 2017.