QB rating system totals

[brumdog44]

Spreadsheet of the three passer rating systems: Passer rating, QBR, PFF. I've included quarterbacks with 150 or more passes. Tua ranks 4th in passer rating, 10th in QBR, and 4th in PFF; combined average of the three ratings puts him sixth.

Name	PR	PR rank	QBR	QBR rank	PFF	PFF rank	Avg	Overall
Prescott, Dall	107.4	3	75.4	2	92.1	1	91.6	1
Purdy, SF	112.3	1	78.5	1	81.8	13	90.9	2
Allen, Buff	95.8	11	72.2	3	91.4	2	86.5	3
Cousins, Minn	110	2	63.1	7	86.1	6	86.4	4
Mahomes, KC	96.3	10	70.2	4	89.1	3	85.2	5
Tagovailoa, Mia	103.7	4	60.1	10	88.1	4	84.0	6
Herbert, LAC	96.9	9	70.1	5	83.9	9	83.6	7
Stroud, Hou	100.8	6	62.8	8	86.3	5	83.3	8
Jackson, Balt	98.4	7	58.6	12	85.7	7	80.9	9
Hurts, Phi	94.9	12	63.6	6	83	11	80.5	10
Lawrence, Jax	92	14	61.5	9	85.7	7	79.7	11
Goff, Det	96.9	8	58.6	12	82.9	12	79.5	12
Wilson, Den	103.4	5	54.4	16	77.7	15	78.5	13
Stafford, LAR	84.8	22	57.5	15	83.1	10	75.1	14
Burrow, Cin	91	16	53.1	17	77.9	14	74.0	15
Mayfield, TB	91.6	15	52.8	18	72.5	19	72.3	16
Smith, Sea	88.2	18	50.2	20	76	16	71.5	17
Love, GB	87.4	20	52.4	19	74.1	17	71.3	18
Fields, Chi	93.3	13	45	23	73.7	18	70.7	19
Dobbs, Ari/Minn	84.7	23	58.7	11	67.3	23	70.2	20
Carr, NO	88.5	17	47.2	22	67.6	22	67.8	21
Howell, Wash	87.3	21	49.5	21	64.7	26	67.2	22
Watson, Clev	84.3	24	44.3	24	67.3	23	65.3	23
Minshew, Ind	81.4	26	58.6	12	54.8	31	64.9	24
Pickett, Pit	81.2	27	38.1	27	71.1	21	63.5	25
Levis, Ten	88.2	18	36.1	29	55.8	30	60.0	26
Garoppolo, LV	78.1	28	35.1	30	65.6	25	59.6	27
Tannehill, Ten	71.9	33	32.6	32	72	20	58.8	28
Ritter, Arl	82.4	25	38.2	26	52.2	32	57.6	29
Jones, NYG	70.5	34	39.2	25	63	27	57.6	30
O'Connell, LV	76.4	30	34.2	31	58.6	28	56.4	31
Jones, NE	77	29	36.6	28	52.2	32	55.3	32
Wilson, NYJ	73.8	32	30.9	34	56.4	29	53.7	33
Young, Car	74.9	31	32	33	49.2	34	52.0	34

 

[royalshank]

Pretty good. The only nit pick would be he’s been trending the wrong way over the past month. I’m pretty sure he was 1 or 2 in all systems / categories prior to this stretch of decent - but not great - play.

PS - for what it’s worth (not much) the only one I look at is PR since I grew up on it and can correlate the scores in my head w more or less how good a guy played. Don’t have a good feel for the other systems.

 

[brumdog44]

Pretty good. The only nit pick would be he’s been trending the wrong way over the past month. I’m pretty sure he was 1 or 2 in all systems / categories prior to this stretch of decent - but not great - play.

PS - for what it’s worth (not much) the only one I look at is PR since I grew up on it and can correlate the scores in my head w more or less how good a guy played. Don’t have a good feel for the other systems.

Yes, Tua was #1 in the averages when I did it last -- after the first week of October games.

This is what I would say about the three systems pros and cons:

Passer rating: good if you are looking just at pure passing stats. Shortages: doesn't take context into play. A 7 yard pass on 3rd and 15 is rewarded the same as a 7 yard pass on 3rd and 5. Quarterbacks taking a sack as opposed to throwing the ball away are rewarded since sacks are counted against a quarterback. An example of this was Ken O'Brien of the Jets putting up an NFL best passer rating in 1985 despite being the most sacked quarterback -- sacked 62 times. He simply wouldn't throw the ball away. Over rewards touchdown passes -- if a quarterback throws for a 2 yard touchdown after a running back got them there on a 70 yard run it looks better in the rating than if the quarterback threw for the bulk of the yards on the drive by the running back scored on a 1 yard run.

QBR: was the forerunner of advanced stats and started to put play result in context of down and distance as well as game score -- 10 yard completions late in the game when you are down 20 points no longer rewarded equal to earlier in the game since they were statistically easier to get since they typically faced soft defenses. Also took into account rushing yardage by the quarterback as well as sacks, which passer rating didn't do.

PFF: took what QBR did and advanced it to include not only context of the play but context of what happened around the quarterback. A clean pocket completion is easier to make so it doesn't get rewarded as highly as one under duress. A pass placed into a receiver's hands isn't considered to be the same as an incompletion where the QB missed the receiver. A completion that was off target but the wide receiver made a great play is not rewarded as much as a completion with an on target throw. IMO, it's the best of the three systems.

 

[royalshank]

Yes, Tua was #1 in the averages when I did it last -- after the first week of October games.

This is what I would say about the three systems pros and cons:

Passer rating: good if you are looking just at pure passing stats. Shortages: doesn't take context into play. A 7 yard pass on 3rd and 15 is rewarded the same as a 7 yard pass on 3rd and 5. Quarterbacks taking a sack as opposed to throwing the ball away are rewarded since sacks are counted against a quarterback. An example of this was Ken O'Brien of the Jets putting up an NFL best passer rating in 1985 despite being the most sacked quarterback -- sacked 62 times. He simply wouldn't throw the ball away. Over rewards touchdown passes -- if a quarterback throws for a 2 yard touchdown after a running back got them there on a 70 yard run it looks better in the rating than if the quarterback threw for the bulk of the yards on the drive by the running back scored on a 1 yard run.

QBR: was the forerunner of advanced stats and started to put play result in context of down and distance as well as game score -- 10 yard completions late in the game when you are down 20 points no longer rewarded equal to earlier in the game since they were statistically easier to get since they typically faced soft defenses. Also took into account rushing yardage by the quarterback as well as sacks, which passer rating didn't do.

PFF: took what QBR did and advanced it to include not only context of the play but context of what happened around the quarterback. A clean pocket completion is easier to make so it doesn't get rewarded as highly as one under duress. A pass placed into a receiver's hands isn't considered to be the same as an incompletion where the QB missed the receiver. A completion that was off target but the wide receiver made a great play is not rewarded as much as a completion with an on target throw. IMO, it's the best of the three systems.

Great explanation - thanks! Had no idea about the contextual elements of these more “modern” systems. I imagine they aren’t perfect in the sense there is a lot of subjective analysis that goes into them eg, “great play by WR or threw it that way on purpose; clean pocket or did the QB slide a little and make it cleaner as a result etc” but context should matter to your Kenny O example. This is pretty neat and I’m now motivated to pay more attention

 

[brumdog44]

Great explanation - thanks! Had no idea about the contextual elements of these more “modern” systems. I imagine they aren’t perfect in the sense there is a lot of subjective analysis that goes into them eg, “great play by WR or threw it that way on purpose; clean pocket or did the QB slide a little and make it cleaner as a result etc” but context should matter to your Kenny O example. This is pretty neat and I’m now motivated to pay more attention

Thanks. Yes, the analytics aren't perfect and trail behind where baseball analytics are. As you mentioned, lots more moving parts in football that make it harder to quantify each.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Yes, Tua was #1 in the averages when I did it last -- after the first week of October games.

This is what I would say about the three systems pros and cons:

Passer rating: good if you are looking just at pure passing stats. Shortages: doesn't take context into play. A 7 yard pass on 3rd and 15 is rewarded the same as a 7 yard pass on 3rd and 5. Quarterbacks taking a sack as opposed to throwing the ball away are rewarded since sacks are counted against a quarterback. An example of this was Ken O'Brien of the Jets putting up an NFL best passer rating in 1985 despite being the most sacked quarterback -- sacked 62 times. He simply wouldn't throw the ball away. Over rewards touchdown passes -- if a quarterback throws for a 2 yard touchdown after a running back got them there on a 70 yard run it looks better in the rating than if the quarterback threw for the bulk of the yards on the drive by the running back scored on a 1 yard run.

QBR: was the forerunner of advanced stats and started to put play result in context of down and distance as well as game score -- 10 yard completions late in the game when you are down 20 points no longer rewarded equal to earlier in the game since they were statistically easier to get since they typically faced soft defenses. Also took into account rushing yardage by the quarterback as well as sacks, which passer rating didn't do.

PFF: took what QBR did and advanced it to include not only context of the play but context of what happened around the quarterback. A clean pocket completion is easier to make so it doesn't get rewarded as highly as one under duress. A pass placed into a receiver's hands isn't considered to be the same as an incompletion where the QB missed the receiver. A completion that was off target but the wide receiver made a great play is not rewarded as much as a completion with an on target throw. IMO, it's the best of the three systems.

A little OT, but no stat can accurately encapsulate a team's status. Any stat that evaluates Miami's O and D through 11 games is not getting an accurate picture of either. Same is true of many QBs, including TT

 

[Jssanto]

Pretty good. The only nit pick would be he’s been trending the wrong way over the past month. I’m pretty sure he was 1 or 2 in all systems / categories prior to this stretch of decent - but not great - play.

PS - for what it’s worth (not much) the only one I look at is PR since I grew up on it and can correlate the scores in my head w more or less how good a guy played. Don’t have a good feel for the other systems.

Agree about the trending. I suppose better to be off now but then get on track for a playoff push.

 

[GreenDolphinSt]

Great spreadsheet, thanks. I'll add my favorite stats for Tua - he's 2nd in DVOA, and 5th in EPA per play.

 

[brumdog44]

Great spreadsheet, thanks. I'll add my favorite stats for Tua - he's 2nd in DVOA, and 5th in EPA per play.

I do like the Football Outsiders stuff.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Thank you for compiling this. Tua needs to finish strong.

One thing I'd like to see is an adjusted ranking based on the defenses faced.

For clarification, say quarterback A and quarterback B have an identical 100 quarterback ranking.

But quarterback A faces defenses with an 85 against and quarterback B faces defenses with a 100. Quarterback A's 100 would obviously be more impressive.

I also like the redzone, third down...all those metrics that measure clutch play from the quarterback.

 

[GreenDolphinSt]

Thank you for compiling this. Tua needs to finish strong.

One thing I'd like to see is an adjusted ranking based on the defenses faced.

For clarification, say quarterback A and quarterback B have an identical 100 quarterback ranking.

But quarterback A faces defenses with an 85 against and quarterback B faces defenses with a 100. Quarterback A's 100 would obviously be more impressive.

I also like the redzone, third down...all those metrics that measure clutch play from the quarterback.

DVOA does adjust for defenses faced, and situations. Whether enough or in the right way, is of course debatable.

 

[GreenDolphinSt]

I do like the Football Outsiders stuff.

I miss the site. Can't believe a company bought it, and promptly just shut it down.

 

[gofins60]

Pretty good. The only nit pick would be he’s been trending the wrong way over the past month. I’m pretty sure he was 1 or 2 in all systems / categories prior to this stretch of decent - but not great - play.

Right... you have to look deeper into the numbers to really see what's happening. Miami's high-flying offense early in the season sent Tua to the top of the rankings. However, o-line injuries and defenses figuring out how to stop (or slow down) McDaniel's offense have put more pressure on Tua, resulting in more sacks, fumbles, and interceptions. So, his numbers lately haven't been that great, but he's still high in the rankings simply because of his amazing earlier performances.

I believe that Tua's rating under pressure was pretty high earlier in the season, so IMO a big reason for the current drop-off in numbers has to be having two back-up Guards allowing pressure right up the middle.