As usual, the evaluation of these quarterbacks for me is years in the making, and is still yet incomplete, as we have some important steps in the process to finish. Not least of which is actually for the player to come out of school, as it is rumored for example that Justin Herbert still leans against coming out of Oregon.
So I try and stick with the Seniors.
Senior Group
Easton Stick (North Dakota State): Ridiculous number of pluses, including arm talent, speed/agility, character profile, pro style experience. His only significant minuses are size (between 6'1" and 6'2" probably, maybe 200 lbs), level of competition (FCS), and role in the offense (run-first team; doesn't often have to carry them himself with his arm). Needs work on deep ball, IMO. He's 48-3, and a champion. And unlike other FCS guys who do that much winning, he has a pro arm, and compelling athleticism even for a pro. If the feet belie the mind, which was the case for another FCS prospect in Jimmy Garoppolo, then Easton Stick should have no trouble processing the field, and has more pure talent than Jimmy did.
Drew Lock (Missouri): Great size, really great arm talent, good athlete. Can run RPOs with him all day. Seems to me that he struggles with the totality of everything you need to remember or process in order to play the position. Mistakes rotate between forgetting to put touch on a pass, forgetting to look-off, making a poor decision, etc. His feet struggle to activate, at times. Bit of Jay Cutler to him, the perception of that nonchalant attitude, trying to pay for everything with his arm.
Drew Anderson (Murray State): Pro level arm strength. Unusual gift for throwing with touch over the middle, getting the ball up and over defenders and then back down inside the zones, then turning around and throwing heaters to the outside. Great passer, natural quarterback with a wide array of competence and awareness in all sorts of areas of a passer's game, which I think is where a Drew Lock struggles, for example. Solid as hell, built for the pro game. Surprising good runner; think it even surprised him. Elevated two offenses to levels they'd not seen before. Unlucky career.
Others: There are a lot of players in this Seniors group that unfortunately do not throw with NFL velocity. The only ones aside from the above that do are Jordan Ta'amu (Ole Miss), Nick Fitzgerald (Mississippi State), and Taryn Christion (South Dakota State). Oddly all three of them are very athletic and can run a bit, which makes the pro tangibles even more tantalizing. But there just aren't enough pro traits in any single one of them, when you really break down their games. Will Grier (West Virginia) is among those that attempt to be dynamic football players and play makers, but do not have the arm to cash the checks signed by their mentality. Grier rarely throws an NFL tight window pass, and doesn't generate NFL velocity even on the occasions he's asked to do so. That's in addition to having an erratic personality profile and history, frenetic playing style where he plays fast and loose with mechanics and decision-making, etc. Gardner Minshew (Washington State) is another, everything you could ask a weak-armed quarterback to be. I think his future lies in coaching the game, rather than playing it. Brett Rypien (Boise State) is interesting as he's highly productive and sort of a "little things" guy, and his arm talent/velocity can often get right up on the cusp of pro level (though still not quite there). Between the lack of ideal arm and lack of ideal size, tough for me to get on board and put him among the targets. Ryan Finley (North Carolina State) is probably the best prospect among those that do not regularly show NFL velocity, due to how well-rounded he is, with pro size. You might make a backup out of him. Of course, you could say the same of Clayton Thorson (Northwestern), who has done a fantastic job learning to operate an offense with pro traits while moving his feet (running for his life). The thing that would make me reluctant to put him on top of my "backup" group of prospects is the fact he's so inconsistent. I mean, he can go out there and just stink up the stadium sometimes. Taylor Cornelius (Oklahoma State) could give Finley a run for his money as the best among the players that do not throw sport NFL tangibles. I really like his FEET in particular, which is huge for me. He's got the size to hit slants and use the shallow middle, which will be good weapons for him. He doesn't throw with pro velocity. I have really liked Justice Hansen (Arkansas State) in the past and still wonder about him. He was highly recruited. He's huge, pro style passer all the way in all his throwing traits, tangibles. He doesn't often throw with NFL velocity but I can't escape the feeling that he could, and he's just dialing it down to make things catchable for his receivers. I just have a tough time trusting him, knowing the volatility of his background and what he's been through, how he's gotten from being a golden boy to ending up barely catching on at Arkansas State. The rest of these seniors, I'm just not sure they have enough talent to even be worth talking about.
Now, among the underclass (eligible), I see a few guys that strike my fancy. They are:
Underclass Eligible Group
Kyler Murray (Oklahoma): This might be the only quarterback in the class that I would move heaven and earth to get hold of. His feet are amazing. His arm talent is amazing. His accuracy is amazing. His speed, agility, and athleticism are amazing. Anyone comparing him to Pat White either didn't study Pat White, hasn't studied Kyler Murray, is actively on drugs, or attempting to make some exceedingly pedantic point about some bureaucratic aspect of the evaluation that doesn't matter a lick on Sunday. Murray stands in the pocket, uses it, works it, and waits for the right throw. But he can also sense pressure, bail when he needs to, and then somehow be even more dangerous. I get asked all the time, are you concerned about the height? Of course I am. Don't be daft. If it weren't for the height, he might be the most tantalizing QB prospect I've ever seen. You don't make your bones by acknowledging or ignoring the obvious. You make it by acknowledging the problems, and properly contextualizing them. If Russell Wilson can play HALL OF FAME level football at the QB position despite being 5105, then it's insane to me for anyone to object to a Kyler Murray because he's maybe an inch (if that) shorter. Will Kyler Murray be able to do everything a normal QB prospect can do? Absolutely not. Like Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield, and essentially every QB under 6'2", he's not going to be able to throw too many quick slants, or use the shallow middle. Can Kyler Murray do things many of those guys can't? You're damn skippy. Taking any quarterback in the 2019 draft above Kyler Murray will probably be a mistake. As Slimm from the Draft Forum recently iterated, you won't be taking a better quarterback, just a taller one.
Justin Herbert (Oregon): This to me is your more classic pro prospect quarterback that has all the tools you could possibly ask for. He's really a wonderful, marvelous specimen for the position. Tall, big, athletic, plays the game the way you want it to be played. He doesn't have all the brain farts you see in a Drew Lock. His arm strength and velocity essentially SETS the curve. He goes to the NFL and I don't know which quarterback in the pros you could pick out and say, oh yeah that guy definitely has a better arm. Good kid, good background, good head on his shoulders. Is there something missing, at times? Maybe. But I've seen other QBs start out here and end up really, really good at the NFL level, like a Ben Roethlisberger.
Jordan Love (Utah State): This is probably the high level talent you haven't heard of yet. He's got elite arm talent, highly productive AND a winner at Utah State. He got both his head coach and offensive coordinator promotions, as they get to go coach at Texas Tech instead of Utah State. He took a huge, monstrous step forward this year, and he's only a redshirt sophomore. Known for having an even-keel during the games, for being able to throw every inch of the field with his arm talent, and for being a good physical athlete. When he's the runner, he protects himself from contact extraordinarily well, and yet he also blocks his ass off when the play needs it. He reminds me a lot of Patrick Mahomes. The question you'd have about him is that he was in an offense that revolved around two superior backs in Darwin Thompson and Gerald Bright, and you've got to wonder what's going to happen now that he's losing at least one of those, in addition to his top three receiving targets (all seniors), his offensive minded head coach, and his offensive coordinator. But this is where great players can step up.
Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State): Some will object to me putting him this far "down" the board. He's a good talent. I honestly go back and forth a little bit between he and Easton Stick of North Dakota State. Ultimately what you have to say about Dwayne Haskins is that he's gone to the highest level of football in the college landscape, and handled it. He throws with trust and anticipation, consistently reading the defense, executing the throws with a consistency that I would honestly compare to Baker Mayfield a year ago. He's shown the ability to improvise, though not necessarily the consistent ability to improvise. The ball comes out delightfully quick with Haskins, and there are offensive coordinators at the NFL level who will be licking their chops at that aspect of his game in particular. He's a winner, showing in certain games that he can really gut it out himself when things aren't going right. So why don't I have him higher? First off, I am sorry to say, the arm talent is really quite borderline for an NFL starter. He can get away with it. But only just so, unless he really starts finding velocity reserves that he's not shown (at which point you start to wonder if he can maintain the accuracy and consistent execution). The book on him is clearly written in that the NFL will know to blitz the hell out of him, play physical man coverage, make him move his feet, force him to make plays while getting away from textbook timing, angles, and anticipation, etc. The mere fact that this is already so obvious will have to be a bit concerning. But if he stays disciplined with his feet (which has been a problem at times), then he can overcome, especially within the bounds of operating a strong offense. I suspect you could make a pretty marvelous system quarterback out of him, at the least.
Others: I've tried, but I just can't bring myself to like Daniel Jones (Duke). In the end I do wonder if the Cutcliffe/Manning connection isn't sort of elevating him above where his talent would otherwise take him. He can run and gain yards. He's got good pocket movement and he's been coached well, obviously. But I see him breaking down under pressure because the bottom line is, he doesn't have an arm. He doesn't have much intrinsic talent for the position. He's not a play maker. Jarrett Stidham (Auburn) is like the polar opposite in that he will continue to get talked about near the top of the draft primarily because he's among the few with valid pro arm strength. But I haven't been impressed by his game since he transferred into Auburn. Can he handle pressure? Finally he's been mentioned, but I can't bring myself to like Tyree Jackson (Buffalo). He's relevant because I know there's been an agent working on him all year trying to get him to come out early. I doubt he's going to receive a good grade from the College Advisory Committee, so we'll see. He's got so many tools at 6'6" and 245 lbs, with perhaps speed in the 4.7's and howitzer arm, and I really do like his coaching/program at Buffalo. Great kid, too. But his feet are like Frankenstein. No connection with what his eyes are reading, or even what throw he's attempting. With feet like that it's going to be hard for him to stay accurate and that's been one problem of his. A deeper problem is I generally feel the feet belie the mind, and if he's got slow and clunky feet then I think he's probably slow and clunky in the way he reads the field. Believe it or not, his backup quarterback in 2017 Drew Anderson was better. The wrong player transferred.
