Readjusting my prediction on the Fins record | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Readjusting my prediction on the Fins record

jimthefin

jimthefin

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Preseason i went through the schedule and with as little fan bias as possible I had them going 7-9 best case.

I am reevaluating that prediction and can now see them reaching as high as 9-7.

They may well be in the playoff mix come December.

Flores and Grier get high marks for how far this team has came since this time last year.

After losing their opening 7 games they are now 8-7 in their last 15.

That is a huge improvement.
 
jimthefin said:
Preseason i went through the schedule and with as little fan bias as possible I had them going 7-9 best case.

I am reevaluating that prediction and can now see them reaching as high as 9-7.

They may well be in the playoff mix come December.

Flores and Grier get high marks for how far this team has came since this time last year.

After losing their opening 7 games they are now 8-7 in their last 15.

That is a huge improvement.
Click to expand...

I understand the need to want to upgrade your score prediciton.
But even 7-9 as a best case scenerio is a tough act for them to pull off.
Essentially they need to win 4 more games this season.

The still have:

Rams
Cardinals
Jets
Bengals
Chiefs
Patriots
Raiders
Bills
Chargers
Broncos

The only teams that could/should be wins are

1) Jets
2) Maybe Bengals
3) Maybe Rams
4) Maybe Cardinals

Jets are the only gimmie on that remaining schedule. Everything else is going to be scratching and clawing.
 
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My original take was... if we go 8-8, I'll be ecstatic.

I'll stick with that.

We'll be favored vs. the Jets, Chargers, and Bengals, with the Cardinal and Broncos games close (both away games).
The Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, Raiders, and Rams will all be games that we should lose in any sane expectation.

To get to 9-7, we'd have to sweep the easy five games (tough for an average team like ours), and then upset one of the others (maybe the Patriots or Raiders?). I guess it could happen, but the key game is Sunday. Can we upset a better team who is coming off of a loss?

If we can eke out a win at home vs. the pissed-off Rams, I'll start to think, "maybe".
 
ANUFan said:
I understand the need to want to upgrade your score prediciton.
But even 7-9 as a best case scenerio is a tough act for them to pull off.
Essentially they need to win 4 more games this season.

The still have:

Rams
Cardinals
Jets
Bengals
Chiefs
Patriots
Raiders
Bills

The only teams that could/should be wins are

1) Jets
2) Maybe Bengals
3) Maybe Rams
4) Maybe Cardinals

Jets are the only gimmie on that remaining schedule. Everything else is going to be scratching and clawing.
Click to expand...
I think we can/should win the Chargers and Broncos games
 
ANUFan said:
I understand the need to want to upgrade your score prediciton.
But even 7-9 as a best case scenerio is a tough act for them to pull off.
Essentially they need to win 4 more games this season.

The still have:

Rams
Cardinals
Jets
Bengals
Chiefs
Patriots
Raiders
Bills

The only teams that could/should be wins are

1) Jets
2) Maybe Bengals
3) Maybe Rams
4) Maybe Cardinals

Jets are the only gimmie on that remaining schedule. Everything else is going to be scratching and clawing.
Click to expand...
It would help if you had all their remaining games in your prediction. You’re missing the Chargers and Broncos on that list.

There are no “gimmes,” even the Jets. Given how competitive they’ve been all year, I think 6-4 is quite feasible. There are no unwinnable games for them if they’re relatively healthy moving forward. All teams have flaws and every week it’s proven nobody is without warts.
 
Feverdream said:
The Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, Raiders, and Rams will all be games that we should lose in any sane expectation.
Click to expand...
I disagree. Miami has handled New England at home rather well over the years. The Rams are far from elite and the Raiders the same. Miami was in position to beat both Seattle and Buffalo in the fourth quarter this year. They will not win them all but they could win any one of those games, if relatively healthy.
 
Andyman said:
I disagree. Miami has handled New England at home rather well over the years. The Rams are far from elite and the Raiders the same. Miami was in position to beat both Seattle and Buffalo in the fourth quarter this year. They will not win them all but they could win any one of those games, if relatively healthy.
Click to expand...
I certainly hope you are correct.

My analysis was probably more betting line based.
 
We actually have a good shot at going 4-3 coming out of the bye. The Rams have a short week to fly across the country for a 1pm EST game while we're coming off a bye.
 
Feverdream said:
My original take was... if we go 8-8, I'll be ecstatic.

I'll stick with that.

We'll be favored vs. the Jets, Chargers, and Bengals, with the Cardinal and Broncos games close (both away games).
The Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, Raiders, and Rams will all be games that we should lose in any sane expectation.

To get to 9-7, we'd have to sweep the easy five games (tough for an average team like ours), and then upset one of the others (maybe the Patriots or Raiders?). I guess it could happen, but the key game is Sunday. Can we upset a better team who is coming off of a loss?

If we can eke out a win at home vs. the pissed-off Rams, I'll start to think, "maybe".
Click to expand...
Feverdream said:
My original take was... if we go 8-8, I'll be ecstatic.

I'll stick with that.

We'll be favored vs. the Jets, Chargers, and Bengals, with the Cardinal and Broncos games close (both away games).
The Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, Raiders, and Rams will all be games that we should lose in any sane expectation.

To get to 9-7, we'd have to sweep the easy five games (tough for an average team like ours), and then upset one of the others (maybe the Patriots or Raiders?). I guess it could happen, but the key game is Sunday. Can we upset a better team who is coming off of a loss?

If we can eke out a win at home vs. the pissed-off Rams, I'll start to think, "maybe".
Click to expand...
The Rams are our next game but the Rams play next Monday night, so Miami gets them on a short week. Jared Goff does not worry me. Aaron Donald, yes.
 
Let's also readjust the way we view McCain's transition to FS.
Definitely was a large ask and all of us were done with the kid after 5 games back there.
He has cleaned up nicely and deserves some props
 
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the two major components:

1) X and Jones healthy
2) the good version of fitz

this team is tough to beat when these two factors exist at the same time.

you’ve got gaskins keeping the offense balanced, X and Jones keeping the secondary tight, and Wilkins playing good interior run defense. When we can control the game script this way, this team is tough to beat and has a legitimate shot at the playoffs.

a team like Tennessee could cream us though. Eventually, a team is gonna commit to the run and make us stop it for 30 minutes. If we don’t get good fitz that day, that’s a losing recipe for us.

This team is built to protect the leads we’ve had the last two weeks. Efficient RB, tight coverage corners, fast LBs, and strong pass rush. You’ve seen what happens.

Those CBs and fitz is what this whole thing hinges on.
 
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