Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams

Breed

Breed

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I posted this on the ESPN forums, it just didn't get many replies.

I've heard so much talk about how the Dolphins took a huge hit when they lost Ricky Williams. It is a loss, but not as big as what people have made it out to be. Neither Ricky Williams nor Ronnie Brown were used anywhere near full capacity; they combined for 1,650 yards on 375 carries (4.4 ypc).

If you have two very talented RB's like Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, you should give it to them around 450 times (combined), otherwise it's just a waste resources. At 375 combined carries, you aren't using your strength to an advantage.

When Ricky had a decent/above average OL in '02 he had 383 carries and got 1,853 yards.

If given the average number carries (330) at 4.38 ypc, Brown has 1,446 yards and Morris at 45 carries 3.63 ypc (3.79 over his career) has 163 yards, that is a combined 1,609 yards. Brown and Williams had 1,650 combined yards. This is just an illustration, this is not in any way a prediction of how Ronnie Brown and Sammy Morris will do. There are unseen variables. Will Brown do better or worse carrying the full load? Will the run blocking be better? etc. IMO, Brown will do better playing every down.

I prefer that one feature RB as opposed to the split back system we ran last year. Let that feature RB get in a rhythm and pound away. When your feature RB needs a breather, just put in Sammy Morris.

Where Ricky's suspension will hurt the most is if Ronnie Brown goes down with an injury.

Here were the responses:

In his first two games from returning, he only gained 6 yards. So he basically played in 10 games. (Referring to Ricky Williams)

Ronnie Brown got off to a horrible start because he held out. Ronnie Brown only averaged 2.71 ypc his first two games. Take away his first two games and he averaged 5.24 ypc for the year.

Williams was the best rusher during miami's win streak.

Which happened to be Ricky's best streak; mainly because Ricky got the carries. Ricky had the chance to get into a rythm, Brown did not.

Brown had 4 games where he had under 10 carries.

9 carries for 22 yards against the Bucs (2.4 ypc)
8 carries for 95 yards against the Chiefs (11.9 ypc)
9 carries for against the Bills (2.4 ypc)
8 carries for 21 yards against the Patriots (2.6 ypc)

The only 2 games Ricky had under 10 carries were his first 2 games.

5 carries for 8 yards against the Bucs (1.6 ypc)
6 carries for -1 yards against the Chiefs (-.2 ypc)


Here are the games where Ronnie had more than 10 carries (excluding the first 2 games of the season)

23 carries for 132 yards against the Panthers
17 carries for 97 yards against the Bills
23 carries for 106 yards against the Saints
12 carries for 67 yards against the Falcons
14 carries for 64 yards against the Patriots
12 carries for 56 yards against the Browns
15 carries for 58 yards against the Raiders
11 carries for 30 yards against the Chargers
12 carries for 45 yards against the Jets

Brown only had 1 game where he had under 3.8 ypc with 10+ rushing attempts.

He did not average over 4.0ypc over ANY of the last 6 games of the season for miami (you know, when you guys were on that ammmmmaaaazzzzinnng win streak). In fact, he failed to average even 3.0ypc in 3 of those last 6 games.

Ricky Williams rarely looks good on the first 10 carries, same for Ronnie Brown. Of the Ronnie Brown's last 3 games, 2 of them he had 10+ carries. Ronnie Brown averaged 2.7 ypc against the Chargers on 11 carries, he then averaged 3.8 ypc in his next to last game against the Jets.
 
That was a nice read, but I have to disagree on a couple of things.

As a comparison, during the four games that constituted the suspension imposed upon Ricky Williams by the NFL for his previous failed drug tests, a combination of Ronnie Brown and current backup Sammy Morris produced an average of 109 total yards per game on 24.5 touches. The two had only one touchdown between them during the stretch and averaged 4.3 yards per touch.

As a comparison, the following were the total yardage outputs of the combination of Ronnie Brown and Sammy Morris during the first four games of the season: 75, 63, 175, and 124 yards. The sample is not large enough to calculate a significant standard deviation statistic, but the eyeball test alone gives a fair idea of the volatility in the yardage outputs.

Brown's averaged just 46 yards per game on 17 carries (2.71 ypc) in his first two games, Brown averaged 114.5 yards per game on 20 carries (5.73 ypc) in his following two games. I feel his 1st 2 games were an aberration, due to him missing most of the preseason.

Of the 9 games where Brown had 10+ carries (after week 2), Brown averaged less than 3.8 ypc only once and averaged less than 4.6 ypc only 3 times.

While the differences between those two sets of figures are neatly-wrapped and easily understood, they do not begin to describe the real difference between the two backfields. That difference lies primarily in consistency.

I guess it depends on your view of Ronnie Brown. If Brown is a 1,200 yard rusher averaging around 3.8-4 ypc, then that is certainly the case. If Brown is a 1,300-1,600 yard rushing averaging around 4.5 ypc then his off weeks will be very few and far between.
 
LaDainian Tomlinson was HIGHLY productive, but his "off-weeks" were not few and far between. He was red hot about 50% of the time, lukewarm or cold the rest of the time. His standard deviation of yardage production was twice as big as that of Ricky & Ronnie.

As a lone tailback, even a 1400 yard tailback can have a season like Tomlinson where he is only taking over the game about half the time, and the rest of the time he's a relative non-factor. With two backs together, there's a higher consistency out of the backfield.
 
remember that Ronnie was only a rookie last year and like you said he did hold out a little bit. He'll be much better this year
 
The big thing that post you found on espn misses is that it assumes that Ronnie would continue at 4.38 ypc. That simply cannot be assumed because with more carries comes fatigue, more of an injury risk, and without Rw, 1 less weapon to account for.

Quite simply, when you lose a player like RW, you lose a player defenses MUST account for. And while our offense is still potentially excellent, we now lack depth at rb where its not uncommon for the 3rd stringer to see significant time.
 
Boik14 said:
The big thing that post you found on espn misses is that it assumes that Ronnie would continue at 4.38 ypc. That simply cannot be assumed because with more carries comes fatigue, more of an injury risk, and without Rw, 1 less weapon to account for.

Quite simply, when you lose a player like RW, you lose a player defenses MUST account for. And while our offense is still potentially excellent, we now lack depth at rb where its not uncommon for the 3rd stringer to see significant time.
Click to expand...

Notice how I said "This is just an illustration, this is not in any way a prediction of how Ronnie Brown and Sammy Morris will do. There are unseen variables. Will Brown do better or worse carrying the full load? Will the run blocking be better? etc. IMO, Brown will do better playing every down."

I also post on the ESPN boards under the SN "ButJeterHasTheRings".

I guess my SN should've been "LouisSojoHasTheRings", but that's a story for another time.
 
Breed said:
That was a nice read, but I have to disagree on a couple of things.

As a comparison, during the four games that constituted the suspension imposed upon Ricky Williams by the NFL for his previous failed drug tests, a combination of Ronnie Brown and current backup Sammy Morris produced an average of 109 total yards per game on 24.5 touches. The two had only one touchdown between them during the stretch and averaged 4.3 yards per touch.

As a comparison, the following were the total yardage outputs of the combination of Ronnie Brown and Sammy Morris during the first four games of the season: 75, 63, 175, and 124 yards. The sample is not large enough to calculate a significant standard deviation statistic, but the eyeball test alone gives a fair idea of the volatility in the yardage outputs.

Brown's averaged just 46 yards per game on 17 carries (2.71 ypc) in his first two games, Brown averaged 114.5 yards per game on 20 carries (5.73 ypc) in his following two games. I feel his 1st 2 games were an aberration, due to him missing most of the preseason.

Of the 9 games where Brown had 10+ carries (after week 2), Brown averaged less than 3.8 ypc only once and averaged less than 4.6 ypc only 3 times.

While the differences between those two sets of figures are neatly-wrapped and easily understood, they do not begin to describe the real difference between the two backfields. That difference lies primarily in consistency.

I guess it depends on your view of Ronnie Brown. If Brown is a 1,200 yard rusher averaging around 3.8-4 ypc, then that is certainly the case. If Brown is a 1,300-1,600 yard rushing averaging around 4.5 ypc then his off weeks will be very few and far between.
Click to expand...
Good research on that. Nice info and I think Ronnie can fill Ricky's shoes without a hitch.
 
ckparrothead said:
LaDainian Tomlinson was HIGHLY productive, but his "off-weeks" were not few and far between. He was red hot about 50% of the time, lukewarm or cold the rest of the time. His standard deviation of yardage production was twice as big as that of Ricky & Ronnie.

As a lone tailback, even a 1400 yard tailback can have a season like Tomlinson where he is only taking over the game about half the time, and the rest of the time he's a relative non-factor. With two backs together, there's a higher consistency out of the backfield.
Click to expand...

Are you basing your opinion (and research) on that one example?

If Brown can get 15-25 carries a game (around 320+ on the year), I feel he'll be consistant.
 
Breed said:
Are you basing your opinion (and research) on that one example?

If Brown can get 15-25 carries a game (around 320+ on the year), I feel he'll be consistant.
Click to expand...

I did not base it on just Tomlinson's example but I thought it was the best example because of how leveraged the team was toward Tomlinson's success. I mean literally, when he ran wild, Brees was perfect and they won. When he didn't, Brees was human and they lost a bunch of the time.

I don't HAVE to base it on just the one example. If you like, I can look up other backs and compare standard deviations.

Player Measure: Standard Deviation of Yardage Output

Ricky+Ronnie (12 games): 28%
Ronnie Alone (16 games): 49%
Ricky Alone (12 games): 67%

Tomlinson (16 games): 50%
Alexander (19 games): 39%
Barber (17 games): 43%
James (16 games): 30%
Portis (18 games): 34%
R. Johnson (17 games): 37%

As you can see, Ricky & Ronnie together were far more consistent as a unit than they were individually apart. As well, they were more consistent together than any of their single-back cousins...even the ones such as James and Rudi Johnson that enjoyed a lot of their success because teams feared their offense's passing game more than ground game.
 
I have a lot of confidence in Ronnie - he'll do much better this season now that he's got this responsibility.
 
Way too much time on your hands dude, but nice post. Wrong, but nice. Ronnie will be fine, better than fine. Kind of surprised your avatar hasn't been censured though, cute I guess, but a little offensive to some (not necessarily me). Nice post, thanks.

In Saban We Trust!
 
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