Running Game Vs the Bills

[KTOWNFINFAN]

If there are others on this board that believe that the running game vs the bills will decide the winner then lets take a look at some numbers from both of our running games. First of all the week one running stats were amazingly similar, as were the rushing yards given up.

Rushed for:
Fins: 191
Bills: 193

Average per rush:
Fins: 5.0
Bills: 5.8

Rushing yards given up:
Fins: 89
Bills: 86

Average per rush given up:
Fins: 4.5
Bills: 4.8

Looking at those numbers it is pretty much a wash. Almost exactly the same. But with such a small sample size, we will need to look at the competition to get a better comparison. So now lets compare the bears and pats, running game. Since it would be fruitless to compare their numbers from this year, since that is basically what we just did, lets look at the team's running game from a year ago. Although teams change much from year to year, much as we certainly did, it is still the best measuring stick to judge competition.

In 2013 NE gave up a whopping 2,145 yards on the ground, which ranked 30th in the league. Only two teams in the entire league was worse. It just so happens that one of those teams were the Bears who gave up 2,583 on the ground, which was not only dead last but a mind blowing 410 yards more than 31st. The bears were not only worst in total yards in rush defense but they were the only team in the league to give up over 5 yards per rush, at 5.3. So although both the bills and the fins rushed for over 190 yards in the opening week, I feel that from the above numbers the fins rushed against the better rush defense, although neither was against very good rush defenses.

Now on the flip side of the ball. Last year the Pats were the 9th best rushing team in the NFL, rushing for 2,065 yards and 4.4 ypc, while the bears were 16th in the league in rushing at 1,828 yards and 4.5 ypc. So using last year as a guide we can see that the pats put more effort into rushing the ball. This indicates we also played the better rushing attack.

As for those who are scared of the bills rush defense it might surprise some to learn that last year the fins gave up 65 less yards than the bills for the season, and less ypc 4.1 to 4.4.

In conclusion our run games and run defenses are almost statistically identical, and the competition we played would lead one to believe (based on last year's stats) that we played the better running team as well as the better run defense in week one. Does this mean we will win the battle of rushing attacks, no of course it doesn't, but it is encouraging. Another item to consider, is we ran week one in front of our fans and the bills were visitors. This week that aspect will be flipped. Even so I like our chances if we can win the battle of rushing attacks, and break even on turnovers.

 

[KTOWNFINFAN]

Great Thread!!!

 

[finfan54]

its all about turnovers to me. what diff does it make if you run down to the 10 only to fumble it? Or run a big one to the fifty only to fumble it.

Hold on to the ball Lamar!!!!!

 

[DaQuix]

1 game is simply not enough to know ANYTHING.

Thats why Football Outsiders doesn't even release DVOA rankings until next week.

 

[zach attach]

Da Bears avgd. 4.8 ypa. I'll take that.

 

[PhinFan1968]

1 game is simply not enough to know ANYTHING.

Thats why Football Outsiders doesn't even release DVOA rankings until next week.

That only shows that in order for FO to even compute the stat they use, they need more than one week of data...doesn't mean what teams do in week 1 means nothing. Only means you can't show a "trend" in one week.

 

[KTOWNFINFAN]

1 game is simply not enough to know ANYTHING.

Thats why Football Outsiders doesn't even release DVOA rankings until next week.

Which is why I used last year's stats in the competition comparison.

 

[FinHopeful]

I suppose the statistical analysis was an interesting exercise, and it might indicate relative skills. The problem is that the reason for all the runs during the Patriots game is that the Patriot defense kept making the similiar alignment choices. These are either mental mistakes or a poor decision for a strategy.

I have faith Tannehill will run the offense correctly. That he will choose the option dictated by his read on the alignment.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Pats were also without Vince Wilfork for much of last season, and Collins, Hightower, and Jones are a year older. There's a reason a lot of people were picking NE to play in the SB (though I wasn't one of them), on paper, they have a strong front 7, strong DB's, and a strong offensive line (if you would have rated Miami's O-line ahead of NE's heading into week 1, you would have been laughed out of the building). Did Miami expose some of the NE's flaws? Yes. No team's perfect. But most people are picking the Patriots to beat a suddenly scary MIN team.

Can't draw too much from week 1, but I didn't see anything to make me believe their Run D is better than last season's. In week 1, Miami wasn't great, but they were much more sound in their lanes (against the run and pass) than they were much of last season. Miami doesn't have to be a top-10 run d. They're good enough against the pass that the 10-15 range will suffice. Miami's pass D is MUCH better than Buffalo's, and our passing game should be much better (should).

Buffalo run game vs Miami Run D
Buffalo pass game vs Miami Pass D
Miami run game vs Buffalo Run D
Miami pass game vs Buffalo Pass D

That's how I see it shaking out. Playing in a hostile environment makes me a little nervous for our passing offense, but I think, for a change, we should match up pretty well with Buffalo.

Nice OP! Solid points, and you gave a good effort backing them - given how early we are in the season.

 

[KTOWNFINFAN]

Pats were also without Vince Wilfork for much of last season, and Collins, Hightower, and Jones are a year older. There's a reason a lot of people were picking NE to play in the SB (though I wasn't one of them), on paper, they have a strong front 7, strong DB's, and a strong offensive line (if you would have rated Miami's O-line ahead of NE's heading into week 1, you would have been laughed out of the building). Did Miami expose some of the NE's flaws? Yes. No team's perfect. But most people are picking the Patriots to beat a suddenly scary MIN team.

Can't draw too much from week 1, but I didn't see anything to make me believe their Run D is better than last season's. In week 1, Miami wasn't great, but they were much more sound in their lanes (against the run and pass) than they were much of last season. Miami doesn't have to be a top-10 run d. They're good enough against the pass that the 10-15 range will suffice. Miami's pass D is MUCH better than Buffalo's, and our passing game should be much better (should).

Buffalo run game vs Miami Run D
Buffalo pass game vs Miami Pass D
Miami run game vs Buffalo Pass D
Miami pass game vs Buffalo Pass D

That's how I see it shaking out. Playing in a hostile environment makes me a little nervous for our passing offense, but I think, for a change, we should match up pretty well with Buffalo.

Nice OP! Solid points, and you gave a good effort backing them - given how early we are in the season.

And I would have been one of the ones laughing. Lets hope this is something that continues, rather than it being related to the heat.

 

[artdnj]

The Fins, with Moreno as catalyst, needs to be charged up like last game to win. My concern is the Bills gameplanning for our defensive backups and putting up big rushing numbers. We will see if the solid LB play was a flash in the pan or for real. If we play anyway near last week and clean up some offense, we win.

 

[KTOWNFINFAN]

The Fins, with Moreno as catalyst, needs to be charged up like last game to win. My concern is the Bills gameplanning for our defensive backups and putting up big rushing numbers. We will see if the solid LB play was a flash in the pan or for real. If we play anyway near last week and clean up some offense, we win.

Actually in some ways I think playing the bills this week is a blessing. Yes it will put a lot of pressure on our backup LBs but Trusnik is horrible in pass coverage and is much better vs the run. Having him in positions to be forced into playing makes playing a running team better than a passing team. The bills really don't have a great pass catching TE. Chandler is more a long the lines of Sims rather than someone like Clay. I like Trusnik's matchup vs the bills rather than another passing team.

 

[roy_miami]

Looking back to last season Chicago was 25th total defense DVOA and 32nd vs the run. Some are expecting that to be worse this season and they are spiraling downwards.
The Bills were 4th overall but surprisingly only 19th against the run. They've lost some of their key pieces in pass defense and losing Kiko Alonso hurts their defense overall.
The Patriots were 20th overall 14th vs the pass and 27th vs the run. They should be much better with the addition of Revis and getting some key players back.
The Dolphins were 17th overall 12th pass 29th run. The Dolphins made some changes. Were they lateral, better or worse we'll need to see on.

I would project the Patriots should have a middle of the road defense right now and the Bears have one of the worst defenses. The Bills and Dolphins are 4th and 5th respectively in rushing DVOA for this season after the one game. If everything is equal the Dolphins 5th is more impressive but when you factor in home field advantage it all goes back to this game being a virtual coin flip for me, and if one of QBs has a good day that'll decide the game.