Saban will use "Value Chart"

[inFINSible]

I see the logic and I agree. My point is, rather than locking in "a" position, Saban left it open to intrepretation.

For what it's worth, if we can't trade down, I believe the bluff will become a reality. It think Smith would look nice in a Dolphin's uniform.

I suppose it could be open to interpretation, maybe somebody could want Braylon Edwards that much more than Williams or Williamson but, that's the only other interpretation that's going to net us a trade down partner.

I'm not sold that Smith is worth the number two pick. No long ball and average arm strength. Sounds just like Chad Pennington. Would you take him at number two?

 

[CrunchTime]

Somehow I doubt it. It would require subjective judgement. But it really should be done, since we know not all drafts are created equal. This year, obviously, there is a relative lack of surefire superstars up front, but much more depth than typical in certain positions. I've been skeptical we will trade down, simply because it would likely require a somewhat lesser payoff, depending how low we dropped.

I tend to use Las Vegas and gambling examples too often here. But it's what I know best. Let me give a somewhat related example: Every week I help put out golf odds for the upcoming PGA tournament. There is no way we could rely on a standard chart to list odds on the favorite or the top choices. If a Tiger or Vijay or Phil or Ernie is playing, then the favorite is in the 3/1 range, perhaps even lower. If NONE of them are in the field, then the favorite might be in the 10/1 range. The odds on the field, i.e. none of the top 30 players in the tournament winning, changes greatly also. The field might be 2/1 or less if none of the top players are entered, but many times that if everyone of significance is playing. The wiseguy gamblers would destroy the sportsbooks if adjustments like that were not made.

It would be interesting to see what Rick Speilman's value chart looked like. Let me guess: any breathing human, preferably third string = $5 million+

Imagine the statistical nightmare that would be created if they adjusted the value chart according to someones subjective opinion about the strength of one draft or another.

IMO its OK as it is.Like all products it is subject to the law of supply and demand.There may be less demand for our pick this year but it doesnt mean we would have to accept lower value to tradedown.

If push comes to shove we can accept future picks as part of a tradedown.You can even get more value than the chart shows that way if you guess right about where that team will finish next year.

There are several teams who are SB contenders who feel they are a player or two away from winning a SB and those teams might be willing to part with high future draft picks in an effort to win now.

 

[Celtkin]

I suppose it could be open to interpretation, maybe somebody could want Braylon Edwards that much more than Williams or Williamson but, that's the only other interpretation that's going to net us a trade down partner.

I'm not sold that Smith is worth the number two pick. No long ball and average arm strength. Sounds just like Chad Pennington. Would you take him at number two?

I would prefer to take Smith in the mid-1st round but I doubt we will be afforded that opportunity. I don't believe that 1) we'll find a trading partner 2) That Smith will last past the Cleveland pick. Saban implied that he is comfortable with the WR position so I don't see us taking Edwards with that pick.

I think the RB position can be addressed in a lower round and I'm still not convinced that Gordon can't be an efficient RB in Linehan's system and behind an improved OL.

Because of those factors, the only place to take Smith, if we are going to take him, is with the 2nd overall pick. It's not my preference but I'm afraid it is the probable reality.

 

[BlueFin]

Saban is trying to sell the rest of the NFL that we're going to take a QB. He's a smart man, he knows that nobody is going to trade up to number two unless they think WE are going to take a QB. There are no other positions worth trading into the top two.

It's a bluff.

Yeah.....yeah......thats the ticket, its a bluff see, an elaborate illusion, afterall, why in the world would Nick Saban consider drafting a franchise QB when we have such great quarterbacking here already?

 

[BlueFin]

I suppose it could be open to interpretation, maybe somebody could want Braylon Edwards that much more than Williams or Williamson but, that's the only other interpretation that's going to net us a trade down partner.

I'm not sold that Smith is worth the number two pick. No long ball and average arm strength. Sounds just like Chad Pennington. Would you take him at number two?

No long ball? Saban personally watched him fire it 62 yards downfield right on the money to the receiver.

 

[CrunchTime]

Did anyone notice this item.?

Noteworthy: Saban said coordinator of football operations Scott O'Brien has been heavily involved in draft preparations because "he was the only guy in this building who understood the system."...

What do you make of it ? What does that say about RS. ?

 

[inFINSible]

Yeah.....yeah......thats the ticket, its a bluff see, an elaborate illusion, afterall, why in the world would Nick Saban consider drafting a franchise QB when we have such great quarterbacking here already?

"Saban wants it known...."
Since when does Saban want anything known??

Of course, it may be completely true, that's what makes a good bluff.

 

[inFINSible]

No long ball? Saban personally watched him fire it 62 yards downfield right on the money to the receiver.

With no rush...big deal...any NFL prospect could do that.

Wonder what kind of wind up he had to get it that far?

from NFL Insider:

Weaknesses: Arm strength is adequate but not good. Still needs to improve his overall bulk and strength. He can make most of the NFL throws but won't be able to fit the ball into tight spots that many starting NFL quarterbacks can. If there's one facet of his accuracy that is inconsistent it is the deep ball. Ball occasionally will sail and he'll need to improve his timing in order to be successful throwing downfield in the NFL. He spent most of his time in the shotgun and in a spread offense. He will need to learn to read defenses while dropping from under center. He also will need to prove that he's not a "system QB", as he played in an offense that was wide-open and made a lot of the reads very easy for him.

 

[inFINSible]

Did anyone notice this item.?



What do you make of it ? What does that say about RS. ?

I saw that and thought the same thing...came to the conclusion after reading more about it in another article that O'Brien was the only one that understood the system that they used in Cleveland to rate prospects and that he was teaching it to everyone else. Not sure if that says anything about RS.

 

[FinzManiac]

Yeah.....yeah......thats the ticket, its a bluff see, an elaborate illusion, afterall, why in the world would Nick Saban consider drafting a franchise QB when we have such great quarterbacking here already?

He would for go a "supposed" Franchise QB to move down and acquire more selections this I know.

And if we can't move down we'll probably take the QB not selected by San Fran. Who knows...we could end up with a trade situation like San Diego had last year... :eek:

 

[FinzManiac]

With no rush...big deal...any NFL prospect could do that.

Wonder what kind of wind up he had to get it that far?

from NFL Insider:

Weaknesses: Arm strength is adequate but not good. Still needs to improve his overall bulk and strength. He can make most of the NFL throws but won't be able to fit the ball into tight spots that many starting NFL quarterbacks can. If there's one facet of his accuracy that is inconsistent it is the deep ball. Ball occasionally will sail and he'll need to improve his timing in order to be successful throwing downfield in the NFL. He spent most of his time in the shotgun and in a spread offense. He will need to learn to read defenses while dropping from under center. He also will need to prove that he's not a "system QB", as he played in an offense that was wide-open and made a lot of the reads very easy for him.

They were saying the same crap about Brady too...

 

[inFINSible]

They were saying the same crap about Brady too...

Thay said it about Steve Walsh too...

 

[pigskinguy]

Thay said it about Steve Walsh too...

Exactly. The fact that THEY said it about both Brady and Walsh just goes to show the draft is just one big crapshoot.
I mean, c'mon, Ken O'Brien over Dan Marino?????? :roflmao:

 

[CrunchTime]

I saw that and thought the same thing...came to the conclusion after reading more about it in another article that O'Brien was the only one that understood the system that they used in Cleveland to rate prospects and that he was teaching it to everyone else. Not sure if that says anything about RS.

I think you are right.Is this the article ?

Saban alters grading system

First-year coach Nick Saban said Thursday that he has changed the system used by the Dolphins to grade potential draft picks and that Scott O'Brien has a role in evaluating prospects. Saban and O'Brien, who was hired as the Dolphins' coordinator of football operations in January, are familiar with the system used by Cleveland in the early 1990s when both were Browns assistants under current New England coach Bill Belichick.

"He'll have input initially because he was the only guy in this building who understood the system," Saban said. "We had to gather information so we could present the system to everybody else in the organization so they would have an understanding of it. He was very helpful to me in doing that.

Rick Spielman remains the Dolphins' general manager, but Saban now has final say on all football decisions. It's thought that O'Brien also had a significant say in the Dolphins' free-agent meetings.

Saban said he tried to hire Chris Polian away from Indianapolis' personnel department earlier this offseason because the Colts use a similar grading system to what the Browns had. A source said Polian decided to stay with Indianapolis because the Dolphins' offer wasn't enough of a promotion from his current position with the Colts.

Saban offered an analogy to explain why he changed the Dolphins' previous grading system.

"We're using the same system here that we used [in Cleveland] in terms of evaluation and all that stuff," he said. "That's important. It makes it easier for everybody because you define what you want.

"If y'all went to my cottage right now in North Carolina, we've got no mustard and 15 bottles of ketchup in the pantry because every time my wife goes to the store, she picks up a bottle because she doesn't take a list. She doesn't know what she wants. She just goes to the store and buys stuff. So we end up with lots of ketchup, no mustard and sometimes no mayonnaise, so everybody has got to eat ketchup."

 

[inFINSible]

Yes sir, that's the one.

You want fuel for the "fire Rick" fires?

I have heard, that Rick is thought of as "inept and abrasive" and was a huge part of Miami's problems last year, from someone who is in a position to know this practically first hand.

As a matter of fact, having heard this from this person, I'm inclined to change my own opinion about Rick Speilman. That's how much I trust this source.