SAN FRAN RECORD TRACKER FOR OUR FIRST ROUND PICK

[royalshank]

I would go with CBs Cam Smith/Joey Porter Jr depending on who we are replacing. Smith would be a great Jones replacement and JPJr would be a great X replacement. Jones is older, has been injured more recently and hasn't been as good thus I'm leaning towards Cam Smith.

X is still terrific. I’m looking to replace Jones

 

[Birdmond]

At around
Pick 12 I’m taking Dawan Jones T Ohio State. 6’8” 350 and his movement has been incredible this year. I’ve also been very impressed how he’s always looking for work. I’m not taking a RB in the top 20 unless he’s a Fred Taylor clone.

 

[djphinfan]

Simple question but not an easy answer. I was going to say yes immediately but that "at this point" held me up a bit. No question OT is high on the long term draft agenda. We need a 10 year guy there, but "at this point" we can probably kick that can to 2024 and focus on the defense more as well as getting an interior OL.

The trio of Armstead, Jackson, Little have bought us at least a year barring an i*****.

I'd say we've reached the "luxury" status of this rebuild where we can start drafting talent over need and hone in on better prospects from a smaller talent pool.

What's convenient about this upcoming off season is our needs are pretty self explanatory based on our free agents and cap situation.

Gesicki and Van Ginkel are both FA's, don't see a path for either to stick around unless its on a 1 year deal prove it type deal, which honestly would likely only happen because of an injury at this point. AVG could be more inclined to go that route given his recovery from appendicitis, Gesicki will get a multi year offer that can't be touched. Even if its well below market value. You already know my stance on the Gesicki situation, I think everyone knows. Still love the guy and I especially loved his "I stay ready" remark after a catch. I believe you Mike. But we can't pay you.

Jerome Baker is the other goner. $5.7M in cap savings, ya that's a no-brainer. He finally made a couple plays in the 2nd half yesterday but nothing that is going to justify keeping that salary on the books. We need impact, not a guy who can wrap a ball carrier and fall forward with him for 2 or 3 extra yards. Hate to cut a former Buckeye but not even my scarlet and gray allegiance would keep him on the roster in 2023 (not that anyone cares what I would do).

From the way too early to speculate but I'll go there anyway files......Chase Edmonds. It's nice to get those two TD's but that's not going to be a huge factor in the talent evaluation for me. A bigger factor for me is the dropped go ahead TD pass that he was bailed out on with a penalty. If that was 4th down and there was no penalty called, how do we feel about him today? $5.65M cap hit, $5M of that is non guaranteed salary. I have a feeling we'll want that $5M more than keeping Chase on the roster. Still a lot of football to play as Chase figures out this offense but he's going to need to do a lot before the season ends. He's making more money than Melvin Ingram.

EDGE, TE, ILB and CB is where we are starting the off season plans.

Alabama's Will Anderson Jr is still the pipe dream but that door opened slightly after Denver's pathetic win over San Fran. Still need a lot of luck and probably a decent trade up but that kind of instant impact to replace AVG would do wonders in containing all these SOB's in the AFC.

Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer is a guy that could change those plans. I could see the FO falling in love with the stud from South Bend and our pick could fall right in line with where he's projected. Right now I'm seeing mostly 7-13 range, with as high as 5. Rarely listed below 12/13 in a mock draft. ND's QB is out for the year so that could affect his season but that's doubtful. That cat was let out of the bag already. Kid has WR DNA in a TE body.

I have so much college football stored on my DVR right now I love it. Can't wait to dive into some of those games after the season is over looking at specific players (again, no one asks me for my opinion anyway).

Don't trade your 2024 first round pick, outside of that, all picks are now ammo.

I'll take a developmental player here and there but I expect a few trade ups. The extra third rounder from New England is looking like a possible pick in the late 60's, if not the early 70's. Ya we are watching San Fran's pick obviously but that pick from New England will be SIGNIFICANTLY higher than anyone initially thought. It will be pretty close to our second rounder.

Swag post :)

 

[GRYPHONK]

If you’re drafting a LB top 12 they need to be roquan smith or Micah parsons level prospects and I just don’t see that with those guys. Maybe with a trade down

True.

Or we can trade our 2nd for Smith and use our first on one of them CBS or OTS.

If our 1st 2 picks turned into a stud ILB and Porter Jr. I would be a very happy fan lol

 

[rafael]

If you’re drafting a LB top 12 they need to be roquan smith or Micah parsons level prospects and I just don’t see that with those guys. Maybe with a trade down

Agreed. I don't believe in absolute statements like, "never draft a RB in the 1st". I see that as the province of those who need simple rules b/c they can't or won't think enough to analyze specific situations. Reality is that a "special" player at almost every position is worth it in the first. But the draft has proven that positions are far more likely to provide value later.

IMO the reason is that the draft process makes it easy to quantify measurables like size, athleticism and speed. And at certain positions measurables matter more. At positions like RB and LB, instincts are very important, arguably more than the measurables. Guys like Zach Thomas or Emmit Smith had decent measurables, but not elite. But they did have elite instincts for the position. Emmit was worth it in the first for that Dallas team and ZT would have been worth it for Miami in any round. I don't see how anyone could argue that a HOF player at any position outside of kicker or punter wasn't worth a 1st round pick.

But at positions like DE, CB and LT you can have great instincts but it;s tough to be really good without elite or at least very good measurables. So positions like that go earlier than they probably should.

 

[Danny]

well, things have chanced so much over the years.....very rare to see a RB going in the first round now. I don’t see McDaniel taking one that early but time will tell. As far as LB, I agree if you're taking one in the first round he better be special(talking ILB)......OT and CB are always going to be in high demand but easier to find a good CB in the 2nd round than it is to find a good OT.....those you normally want to take early......too early to know what we'll need.....14 more regular season games to see who makes progress and who stays healthy and on and on.

 

[rafael]

well, things have chanced so much over the years.....very rare to see a RB going in the first round now. I don’t see McDaniel taking one that early but time will tell. As far as LB, I agree if you're taking one in the first round he better be special(talking ILB)......OT and CB are always going to be in high demand but easier to find a good CB in the 2nd round than it is to find a good OT.....those you normally want to take early......too early to know what we'll need.....14 more regular season games to see who makes progress and who stays healthy and on and on.

I don't know that it's easier for every team to find a CB later but Boyer has certainly demonstrated a knack.

 

[Danny]

I don't know that it's easier for every team to find a CB later but Boyer has certainly demonstrated a knack.

well, when you look at the best CB's we've had over the years, they were all taken in the 2nd round. Sam Madison, Surtain, Howard

then some of the worst picks we've made were CB's taken in the first round.....Jamar Fletcher,Iggy

I don’t see the need to co CB in the 1st round.......Pass rusher, WR......playmaking safety or OT for me......well, as long as you already have your QB which we do.

 

[Feverdream]

I may be a broken record here... but I cant see us taking anything but front defensive 7 players early. Van Ginkle, Ingram, Flowers, Roberts, and Riley are all unsigned beyond this year. Wilkins is due a huge raise. Ogbah is aging. Phillips has been up and down. Seiler has one more year before he'll look to cash in.

Right NOW, we're good... but it's tenuous at best. We'll need help... right away. If we take ANYTHING besides a pass-rusher with that first pick, I'll be SORELY disappointed.

 

[boomer10]

My theory about drafting is simple. You pay for a Franchise QB. Then you pay money to the players who play closest to the ball. That would include the players who play on the Offensive and Defensive Line.
A Great OL can run the ball effectively and protect the QB long enough to get the most average of WRs to be able to separate and get open. In respect to the DL, if you can stop the run, you make a team one-dimensional. And, if you can get to the QB by rushing only Four players, then you can play with less than spectacular LBs and CBs.

 

[The Ghost]

I may be a broken record here... but I cant see us taking anything but front defensive 7 players early. Van Ginkle, Ingram, Flowers, Roberts, and Riley are all unsigned beyond this year. Wilkins is due a huge raise. Ogbah is aging. Phillips has been up and down. Seiler has one more year before he'll look to cash in.

Right NOW, we're good... but it's tenuous at best. We'll need help... right away. If we take ANYTHING besides a pass-rusher with that first pick, I'll be SORELY disappointed.

Agree 100%. Front 7 impact is at the fore front of 2023 needs. You gotta stop Mahomes for the next decade. Allen, Herbert and Jackson will also be a thorn in our sides until i'm pushing 50 (I'm 42 now).

Might be time for us to make our "Julio Jones" trade for an Alabama stud. 2024 first rounder has to be on the table come 2023 draft. Anderson would have to fall to No.3 for something to happen. QB's need to go 1 and 2 before we can trade up. Trading up to 2 with Young or Stroud still on the board might be too costly.

Good thing for us is most of the teams projected to be picking early are NFC teams. Falcons, Bears, Commanders, Seahawks, Panthers, along with the Jets. Jags have played themselves well out of the conversation (good for them).

Better trade up potential with those teams being in those positions, they are all rebuilding and are all in need of multiple draft picks to begin the process of competing.

I'm really rooting for Kentucky's Will Levis at this point. I'd love to see him work his way into the top 3. Stroud-Young-Levis 1-2-3 with the Commanders or Bears picking fourth is our best possible scenario for this desired outcome to possibly come to fruition.

Speaking of the Commanders, I'd have a conversation with them right away to gauge their interest in trading Chase Young. If I can buy low with that dude, I'd strongly consider it, if I can do a deal with conditions it would be more likely. I am not giving them a first round pick right now for the guy so we'd have to get creative. If he can come back and put up double digit sacks, I'd compensate them with future picks. At the end of the day it doesn't matter that they used the second pick overall for him. They are going to need assets to get their future QB. It's not like Wentz is going to stick around. Sooner or later Washington has to rebuild and with those WR's they have, they aren't going to want to wait too long to take a shot at an early pick QB. Realistically though I don't think you can offer them enough to give up on a talented player like CY but the injury situation opens up a door that would otherwise never have a chance of being open.

 

[circumstances]

I may be a broken record here... but I cant see us taking anything but front defensive 7 players early. Van Ginkle, Ingram, Flowers, Roberts, and Riley are all unsigned beyond this year. Wilkins is due a huge raise. Ogbah is aging. Phillips has been up and down. Seiler has one more year before he'll look to cash in.

Right NOW, we're good... but it's tenuous at best. We'll need help... right away. If we take ANYTHING besides a pass-rusher with that first pick, I'll be SORELY disappointed.

pass rush absolutely.

not that one is guaranteed to be there.

even if Phillips pans out as a great pass rusher, we will have nothing else once Ogbah leaves/slows down/etc.

 

[dagger151]

I can see Grier trading a top 10 pick for more picks later in draft or in to 2024 draft, but if the pick is made a strong DL or OL prospect is the need here.

 

[EJay]

At around
Pick 12 I’m taking Dawan Jones T Ohio State. 6’8” 350 and his movement has been incredible this year. I’ve also been very impressed how he’s always looking for work. I’m not taking a RB in the top 20 unless he’s a Fred Taylor clone.

Jones is a beast. A very LARGE beast.

 

[Feverdream]

pass rush absolutely.

not that one is guaranteed to be there.

even if Phillips pans out as a great pass rusher, we will have nothing else once Ogbah leaves/slows down/etc.

That's why I'm highest on Murphy and Foskey. Those two are the true DEs who are supposedly going to fall in our range.
Murphy is the one I want, but SF may not lose enough games to make him available to us.