I was having this discussion with my uncle a week or 2 ago so we researched the the following trades:
RG3, Wentz, Goff, Watson , Mahones, Trubisky and Darnold
The going rate on these trades is usually a 50% mark up. By this I mean the chart difference between the two teams 1st rounders + 50%
There are 2 total fleece jobs out of the 7 trades. both involve moving from 6 to 3. The difference between 6 and 3 is 600 points. The 50% markup means the team in 6th should be giving the team in 3rd 900 points in draft capitol.
The Redskins gave the Rams a little over 3000 points in draft capitol for RG3. That kind of fleecing was historic and will never be seen again. The Jets gave Indy 1500 points in draft capitol for a 900 point move to get Darnold.
The other trades all come in around the 50% markup. Even Cleveland passing on Watson and Mahones got the going rate in those trades. Their draft choices just didn't pan out.
The Redskins and Jets are poorly run organizations. When considering Jacksonville, let's take a giant leap and assume their GM actually passed 4th grade math.
This is possibly what a trade with them could look like.
The difference between 5 and 9 is 350 points. The 50% markup makes this a 525 point trade. How Jacksonville gets us the 525 points is up for debate. Let me show you 3 examples.
Example 1
For those of you who want an extra 1st rounder from Jacksonville. This is for you.
Pick 20 is valued at 850 points, which means we would owe them 325 points. Pick 56 is valued at 340 points. They would owe us 15 points. Their 6th rounder , pick 189 = 14.6 points. Done
Would you trade 5 and 56 for 9 and 20? I would do it 7 days a week and twice on Sunday. We could get Herbert or Love at 9 and an extra starter at 20. But again, for this exercise, we are assuming the Jacksonville GM is not developmentally delayed, so this probably isn't going to happen. The Jags 2021 1st is not on the table as it is going to be considerably higher than 20.
Example 2
Pick 42 is valued at 480 points. They owe us 45 points. Their 4th, pick 116 = 62 points. We owe them 17 points. Our 6th, pick 185 = 16.2 points. Done
This is the trade I would be hoping for, if example one is a no go. I would feel much better about offering 39 and 70 to trade up from 18 to get one of the top 4 tackles, if I was picking at 42 instead of 56.
Example 3
Their 3rd rounder, pick 73, is valued at 225 points. Their 2021 3rd will be valued at roughly the same give or take 20 points. That means they owe us a 4th or 5th rounder, depending on where their 2021 3rd falls. Obviously this example is the least attractive of the 3 and the one I probably say no to as pick 73 does little to move the needle trade value wise.
