Friday, September 9, 2005
Take 2: Broncos vs. Dolphins
By Scouts, Inc.
Denver at Miami Matchups
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this week's matchup between the Broncos and Dolphins. Now they're back with a second look.
An important key for the Dolphins defense working against the Broncos' staple zone running play will be to attack it vertically and sustain pressure up-field. If the Miami defense reacts laterally, it allows the Broncos offensive line to execute cut blocks and get to the second level. When playing against the Broncos zone blocking principles, defenses must be proactive and aggressive dictating who the Denver offensive linemen must block rather than waiting for them to attack. In addition, the Dolphins will eliminate the key attribute that defines the running play for the back: patience if they can create quick penetration. Quick penetration removes the ability of RB's Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell to wait for the hole to develop. It eliminates the one-cut foundation of the Broncos running game.
The Dolphins' defense must be aware of the movement of Jake Plummer that is built into the Broncos zone running game. That's what makes Plummer and the bootleg passing game so difficult to defend schematically: The designed movement in the pass game works off the same backfield action as the zone running game. And Plummer is at his best as a passer when he boots out of the pocket. If Miami's backside defenders pursue too hard down the line to attack the run, they will be vulnerable to Plummer getting out the back door on the bootleg. No passing game in the NFL with the exception of the Falcons and Michael Vick is as dependent on designed quarterback movement as the Broncos.
The strength of the Broncos defense is OLBs Ian Gold and D.J. Williams and MLB Al Wilson. This is the fastest linebacker corps in the NFL. With the signing of Gold in the offseason, Williams moved to the strong side after playing on the weak side as a rookie last season. That will not be a problem for him. Defensive coordinator Larry Coyer uses multiple fronts and it's likely Williams will have the opportunity to continue to play in space where his speed and change of direction skills can best be utilized. This is a linebacker unit that plays fast and it will pose a tough matchup problem for a Dolphins' offensive line that lacks speed and overall quickness.
The Broncos offense is simple in design and its success is based on consistent execution. The running game is built on zone blocking principles with the emphasis being on the back getting downhill as quickly as he can. Two aspects that stand out about the Broncos' offense is the use of personnel and shifting before the snap of the ball. The tight end is a key position in Denver's scheme; they often employ two tight sets and align them in different positions in the formation, at times shifting them before the snap of the ball. In many sets, one of the tight ends shifts into the backfield into a fullback position. The Broncos also rely heavily on the base two-back, one-tight end package. In fact, both of Mike Anderson's long runs in the third preseason game against the Colts, including the 93-yard-touchdown, came out of this personnel grouping. The 40-yard touchdown pass from Plummer to Ashley Lelie in the same preseason game came with "22" personnel on the field -- two backs, two tight ends, and Lelie the only wide receiver on the field.
The Dolphins' defense is very versatile and we feel will pose matchup problems for opposing offenses. Keep in mind that new Dolphins head coach Nick Saban was very creative at LSU. For instance, we saw a zone blitz pressure scheme with man coverage played behind it in the preseason, something we had not seen in the NFL. As a result, we anticipated a lot of different fronts and coverages with Miami, especially given the fact that Saban has a veteran group of defenders at his disposal. We were not disappointed. The moving chess piece in Saban's defensive puzzle is Jason Taylor. In the preseason, Taylor lined up at both defensive end positions in a 4-3 front and at both outside linebacker spots in a 3-4-front. At times, we saw Taylor play man-to-man coverage on a tight end from a down defensive line position and at other times we saw him play man-to-man coverage on a running back from an outside linebacker position. In this matchup against Denver, Saban will force the Broncos to find Taylor and account for him since he remains an impact pass rusher who can disrupt an offense and create long-yardage situations. Situations Plummer really struggles in.
Another player on the Dolphins defense who could be a significant factor in the matchup against the Broncos is DL Kevin Carter. In the preseason, Carter lined up at both defensive end and defensive tackle and was effective in both spots. Against Denver, we would expect to see Carter play on the inside working against guards Cooper Carlisle and Ben Hamilton in passing situations. Carlisle is starting in place of the retired Dan Neil, and he has never been a full time starter before in his six-year NFL career while Hamilton has struggled at times with pass protection.
The key to this matchup for the Dolphins will be the play of their offensive line. It's a unit that lacks speed and quickness and they are matched against a Broncos defensive front seven that is fast, quick and active. The Dolphins must neutralize that speed and quickness with power. Be physical at the point of attack and at least stay in a position where they can run the ball enough times to keep QB Gus Frerotte from having to drop back 35 times to pass. Their offensive line will not hold up if Frerotte has to throw it that many times and Frerotte does not have the pocket presence and awareness to defeat consistent pressure.
Dolphins' offensive coordinator Scott Linehan believes that establishing the running game is a mentality and a mindset. To be consistently effective as an offense, you must be able to pound the football. While there's no question that the Dolphins need to be effective running the ball against the Broncos, expect to see Linehan take his shots down the field in the passing game on run downs like first-and-10. One matchup to focus on is Dolphins WR Chris Chambers against Denver CB Champ Bailey. Chambers is a big, physical receiver with great speed and the ability to go up and get the ball; Bailey is a solid cover corner with excellent transition quickness and speed. Bailey likes to line up in press position but he rarely puts his hands on receivers. Instead, he mirrors them, counting on his speed.
The Dolphins' safeties --Tebucky Jones and Yeremiah Bell -- can be exploited. Jones, while big and fast, has never shown the instincts and recognition skills that are necessary to be consistent every week. Bell is a second-year player that lacks experience although he does have good speed and range. The matchup against the Broncos will be difficult for Jones and Bell because Denver's offense works so effectively off the concepts of flow, influence and misdirection. It places a tremendous mental and intuitive burden on Jones and Bell.
One player in this matchup who we believe will have a significant impact is Broncos WR Rod Smith. Smith is rarely talked about when the NFL's top receivers are mentioned, most likely because he has always lacked the kind of explosive speed that elevates wideouts to elite status. Yet he has been one of the most consistent and best all-around receivers in the league for a long time. Smith is a physical receiver who is very good working against press coverage. His long strides and quick burst off the line allow him to eat up the cushion working against cornerbacks playing off-coverage and his great hands allow him to snatch the ball in traffic. In addition, Smith has always been an excellent blocker in the Broncos run game. Count on Smith making at least a few big third down receptions that keep Bronco drives alive.
Special Teams
The best asset on special teams for the Broncos is kicker Jason Elam who at 35 still has a strong leg and shows excellent accuracy. Last year Elam converted three of his four field goal attempts from 50 yards or longer and he still gets excellent distance on kickoffs. The rest of Denver's special teams aren't quite so special. Punter Chris Baker is versatile but inconsistent, and the Broncos can't afford the luxury of a punter who excels on kickoffs but not punts. Long snapper Mike Leach is no better than an average option. The Dolphins were solid on special teams last season but there are no guarantees in 2005. Unexpectedly, RS Wes Welker was the star of the unit, as he ranked second in the AFC in punt returns and seventh in kickoff returns as a rookie last season. Welker should only continue to improve with more experience, but the age of PT Matt Turk and the recent inconsistency of PK Olindo Mare have to be concerning.
Matchups
Miami WR Chris Chambers vs. Denver DC Champ Bailey
Denver WR Rod Smith vs. Miami DC Sam Madison
Miami LOT Damion McIntosh vs. Denver RDE Trevor Pryce
Scouts' Edge
Miami's commitment to the running game and tough defense will keep this game close, but look for Denver to get the win.
The Broncos have the speed at linebacker to prevent the Dolphins' backs from breaking too many long runs outside and the size in the middle to limit their production between the tackles. They will put Frerotte in plenty of third-and-long situations. With Miami's offensive line struggling in pass protection, Denver should have success forcing Frerotte to get rid of the ball quickly resulting in some mistakes that produce stalled drives and/or turnovers.
Denver's backs may not have career days running the ball and Plummer will likely make a few mistakes of his own, but the Broncos have a superior offensive line and enough weapons to keep the Dolphins honest. They should have more success moving the ball and that should give them a tough win on the road.
Prediction: Broncos 17, Dolphins 10
