Year after year it seems like QBs that have no business being selected on the first day, sneek into the 2nd round especially. Basically because of their position. and QBs that should be 2nd or 3rd rounders sneek into the first round. usually at the end of the first. So usually QBs at the back end of the first usually project as starters if development goes right. So basically what im saying is, history seems to tell a story about QBs.
1. Dont reach based on potential.
2. If you dont have a top 15 pick, most of the QBs that are going to be successful are already gone.
3. At the back end of the first and beyond, theres almost no science to drafting a QB, you just have to get really lucky.
Heres are the QBs at the backend of 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounds in the past 10 years(would of went more years back and added even more examples of failures but im a youngin and didnt actually watch some of them).
Back end of 1st
Jim Druckenmiller
Patrick Ramsey
Rex Grossman
Kyle Boller
Chad Pennington
J.P. Losman
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell
Of those 8 only 3 have had much of an impact, and none had any when first entering the league. Obviously Campbell and Rodgers need more time. Pennington is a good QB, Losman looks like he could be to. Grossman is on the fence still, but he still had a good impact overall. But like ive said, it would seem at the end of the first is more 2nd and 3rd rounders. QBs that need development and time to be successfull.
Now lets go onto 2nd and 3rd rounders who I said seem to be alot of 2nd day guys, guys picked on potential only, and guys that should really be looked at as backups at best.
2nd Rounders
Drew Brees
Jake Plummer
Charlie Batch
Tony Banks
Marques Tuiasosopo
Quincy Carter
Shaun King
only 2 guys had any impact. only 1 being good. Batch, Banks, and Tuiasosopo and career backups, and Carter and King are out of football.
3rd Rounders
Brian Griese
Matt Schaub
Charlie Frye
Andrew Walter
David Greene
Eric Zeier
Stoney Case
Brock Huard
Giovanni Carmazzi
Chris Redman
Jonathan Quinn
Josh McCown
Dave Ragone
Chris Simms
Only 1 has had much of an impact. Although Frye, Schaub, and Simms still have a chance. I would bet anything on Frye and Simms being anything successful in the league. I dont know about Schaub either, but ill give him the benefit of the doubt at this point being as how Houston loves him so much. Most of these guys are career backups, or out of the league.
The point of this thread is to just show drafting a guy in the 2nd or 3rd isnt even close to saying that we have a future starter. Honestly IMO there isnt 1 QB outside of Quinn and Russell that deserve to be drafted first day. A guy like Drew Stanton falls into the perfect category of drafting on potential because of athletic ability when in reality of being a NFL QB, hes a huge project and shouldnt be drafted first day.
I mean, in the past 10 years, there has been 1 good starting QB drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round. Strengthening my point that after the top half of the first, you basically have to get lucky with QBs. I mean, theres still a chance to fail on a QB at the top, but theres a much much much more likely chance to get a really good one to. While trying to get a good one in the 2nd and 3rd is difficult.
So basically if Quinn or Russell is there at 9. take them, if not, DO NOT draft one in the 2nd or 3rd because we are in need of a QB. It doesnt work.
1. Dont reach based on potential.
2. If you dont have a top 15 pick, most of the QBs that are going to be successful are already gone.
3. At the back end of the first and beyond, theres almost no science to drafting a QB, you just have to get really lucky.
Heres are the QBs at the backend of 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounds in the past 10 years(would of went more years back and added even more examples of failures but im a youngin and didnt actually watch some of them).
Back end of 1st
Jim Druckenmiller
Patrick Ramsey
Rex Grossman
Kyle Boller
Chad Pennington
J.P. Losman
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell
Of those 8 only 3 have had much of an impact, and none had any when first entering the league. Obviously Campbell and Rodgers need more time. Pennington is a good QB, Losman looks like he could be to. Grossman is on the fence still, but he still had a good impact overall. But like ive said, it would seem at the end of the first is more 2nd and 3rd rounders. QBs that need development and time to be successfull.
Now lets go onto 2nd and 3rd rounders who I said seem to be alot of 2nd day guys, guys picked on potential only, and guys that should really be looked at as backups at best.
2nd Rounders
Drew Brees
Jake Plummer
Charlie Batch
Tony Banks
Marques Tuiasosopo
Quincy Carter
Shaun King
only 2 guys had any impact. only 1 being good. Batch, Banks, and Tuiasosopo and career backups, and Carter and King are out of football.
3rd Rounders
Brian Griese
Matt Schaub
Charlie Frye
Andrew Walter
David Greene
Eric Zeier
Stoney Case
Brock Huard
Giovanni Carmazzi
Chris Redman
Jonathan Quinn
Josh McCown
Dave Ragone
Chris Simms
Only 1 has had much of an impact. Although Frye, Schaub, and Simms still have a chance. I would bet anything on Frye and Simms being anything successful in the league. I dont know about Schaub either, but ill give him the benefit of the doubt at this point being as how Houston loves him so much. Most of these guys are career backups, or out of the league.
The point of this thread is to just show drafting a guy in the 2nd or 3rd isnt even close to saying that we have a future starter. Honestly IMO there isnt 1 QB outside of Quinn and Russell that deserve to be drafted first day. A guy like Drew Stanton falls into the perfect category of drafting on potential because of athletic ability when in reality of being a NFL QB, hes a huge project and shouldnt be drafted first day.
I mean, in the past 10 years, there has been 1 good starting QB drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round. Strengthening my point that after the top half of the first, you basically have to get lucky with QBs. I mean, theres still a chance to fail on a QB at the top, but theres a much much much more likely chance to get a really good one to. While trying to get a good one in the 2nd and 3rd is difficult.
So basically if Quinn or Russell is there at 9. take them, if not, DO NOT draft one in the 2nd or 3rd because we are in need of a QB. It doesnt work.
