phinsforlife
Active Roster
Summary below from AI, I think this is right because I checked a few and they all came back with the same thing. The Dolphins went from +4200 pre-draft to +5000 to +8000 post draft. I checked myself. ESPN bet has them at +5000, and Draft Kings has them at +8000. Seems like there is money to be made playing these spreads, but that is a different issue. Obviously, if you like the Dolphins to win the SB, Draft Kings is offering a better payout.
My point is, it seems nuts to kill the Dolphins chances this much after the draft, for the same reason it is to be to be that much more ecstatic about the Dolphins chances after the draft. They are the opposite version of the same thing:
-A teams chances pre-draft should already incorporate the notion that the team will have a draft. Teams do not get better in a vacuum. All teams draft. They all add players. Drafting and getting better is not unique to any single team. In expectation, the draft should already be in the numbers, because it is known that the draft will happen. Further, one should be able to make assumptions about how well a team will draft. One should assume, ahead of time, that the Eagles and Ravens will draft pretty well. One should assume ahead of time certain other teams will have a meh draft, because that is what they do. In many cases, you know which teams will draft which players, especially at the top of the draft. It is no surprise the Titans took Cam Ward. It wouldn't have been hard to guess the Dolphins would leave the draft with IOL and a DT in the first two rounds. By and large, in most cases, there should be no real news coming out of the draft that materially changes anything, unless a monster trade goes down.
-The whole stinking thing is kind of a crapshoot anyway. You don't really know until the players get on the field. You can like a draft or not like it, but boy, to move numbers around this much based on stuff that you have no idea about how it will look in reality, that is a whole different story. Sure a team can get a lot better after the draft and a good offseason, but you only learn that during the season. Look at the Washington Commanders last year. They knocked it out of the park. They drafted Jayden Daniels, but you knew that was going to happen going into the draft, it was not new news. It turned out they had a really good rest of their draft, but you didn't know that at the time. They had a good offseason w regard to the free agents they added. And it turns out they made a pretty good choice with their coaching staff - including hiring a head coach with prior experience and success. BUT nobody realized all these things were going to matter that much, until well after the fact and deep into the actual season, when Jayden Daniels and the Commanders actually did it. Nobody includes Vegas, and you would have made a fair bit of money if you made futures bets on the Commanders with the odds that existed right after the draft. This kind of 1 year turnaround happens almost never, and took a very unique set of circumstances, including being able to draft a QB that was good and ready to go right off the bat.
This is a somewhat long winded way of saying the draft should not change anyone's view of the prospects for any team, that much. Going into a draft, you know every team will add players. You kind of know who and what they will add. Then, really, you kind of have no idea how good or bad these players will actually be. Yes, it is fun to speculate, but you are speculating. You are only going to know when you know. You will start getting a sense for it in training camp, and then only during the season will you really know. And there are always a lot of surprises in this regard in which draft picks mattered and made a difference, and which ones do not. And this is also why you bet, because in retrospect, the odds never turn out right (although they always make Vegas money because the odds are all set not to be fair and there are enough bets that on average they always win).
The Miami Dolphins' Super Bowl odds did change following the 2025 NFL Draft, reflecting shifts in perception based on their draft selections and overall team outlook. Below is a summary of the changes based on available data:
Pre-Draft Odds (April 14, 2025): The Dolphins had Super Bowl odds of +4200, implying a 2.3% chance of winning Super Bowl LX.
Post-Draft Odds (April 29, 2025): Their odds lengthened to +8000, implying a 1.2% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Change in Odds:
The odds shifted from +4200 to +8000, a significant lengthening, indicating a decrease in perceived likelihood of winning the Super Bowl.
The implied probability dropped from 2.3% to 1.2%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points.
In terms of betting, a $100 bet at +4200 would have paid $4,200, while at +8000, it would pay $8,000, but the longer odds reflect lower confidence from oddsmakers.
Context and Reasons for the Change:
The Dolphins made notable draft selections, including Michigan defensive tackle Kenneth Grant (No. 13 overall) to bolster their defensive line and offensive lineman Jonah Savaiinaea in a trade-up in the second round to address offensive line needs. They also drafted quarterback Quinn Ewers in the seventh round as a developmental backup.
Despite these additions, some analysts were critical of the Dolphins' draft. For instance, a post on X by @ScottKacsmar listed the Dolphins among teams with drafts he "didn't like," which may reflect sentiment influencing odds.
The Dolphins' 8-9 record in 2024 and missing the playoffs, combined with Tua Tagovailoa’s injury history, likely contributed to skepticism about their immediate competitiveness.
The draft focused heavily on the trenches (three defensive tackles and an offensive lineman), which may not have been seen as addressing immediate offensive firepower or secondary concerns, potentially dampening optimism.
Additional Notes:
Earlier in the offseason (February 10, 2025), the Dolphins had odds of +6500, showing a trend of worsening odds over time, with the post-draft +8000 being the longest reported.
The odds shift aligns with broader market trends, as teams like the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens, who had stronger drafts or recent success, saw shorter odds post-draft.In summary, the Miami Dolphins’ Super Bowl odds worsened from +4200 to +8000 after the 2025 NFL Draft, reflecting a drop in implied probability from 2.3% to 1.2%. This change suggests oddsmakers and analysts were less optimistic about Miami’s prospects, possibly due to a draft perceived as underwhelming and ongoing concerns about team performance and injuries.
My point is, it seems nuts to kill the Dolphins chances this much after the draft, for the same reason it is to be to be that much more ecstatic about the Dolphins chances after the draft. They are the opposite version of the same thing:
-A teams chances pre-draft should already incorporate the notion that the team will have a draft. Teams do not get better in a vacuum. All teams draft. They all add players. Drafting and getting better is not unique to any single team. In expectation, the draft should already be in the numbers, because it is known that the draft will happen. Further, one should be able to make assumptions about how well a team will draft. One should assume, ahead of time, that the Eagles and Ravens will draft pretty well. One should assume ahead of time certain other teams will have a meh draft, because that is what they do. In many cases, you know which teams will draft which players, especially at the top of the draft. It is no surprise the Titans took Cam Ward. It wouldn't have been hard to guess the Dolphins would leave the draft with IOL and a DT in the first two rounds. By and large, in most cases, there should be no real news coming out of the draft that materially changes anything, unless a monster trade goes down.
-The whole stinking thing is kind of a crapshoot anyway. You don't really know until the players get on the field. You can like a draft or not like it, but boy, to move numbers around this much based on stuff that you have no idea about how it will look in reality, that is a whole different story. Sure a team can get a lot better after the draft and a good offseason, but you only learn that during the season. Look at the Washington Commanders last year. They knocked it out of the park. They drafted Jayden Daniels, but you knew that was going to happen going into the draft, it was not new news. It turned out they had a really good rest of their draft, but you didn't know that at the time. They had a good offseason w regard to the free agents they added. And it turns out they made a pretty good choice with their coaching staff - including hiring a head coach with prior experience and success. BUT nobody realized all these things were going to matter that much, until well after the fact and deep into the actual season, when Jayden Daniels and the Commanders actually did it. Nobody includes Vegas, and you would have made a fair bit of money if you made futures bets on the Commanders with the odds that existed right after the draft. This kind of 1 year turnaround happens almost never, and took a very unique set of circumstances, including being able to draft a QB that was good and ready to go right off the bat.
This is a somewhat long winded way of saying the draft should not change anyone's view of the prospects for any team, that much. Going into a draft, you know every team will add players. You kind of know who and what they will add. Then, really, you kind of have no idea how good or bad these players will actually be. Yes, it is fun to speculate, but you are speculating. You are only going to know when you know. You will start getting a sense for it in training camp, and then only during the season will you really know. And there are always a lot of surprises in this regard in which draft picks mattered and made a difference, and which ones do not. And this is also why you bet, because in retrospect, the odds never turn out right (although they always make Vegas money because the odds are all set not to be fair and there are enough bets that on average they always win).
The Miami Dolphins' Super Bowl odds did change following the 2025 NFL Draft, reflecting shifts in perception based on their draft selections and overall team outlook. Below is a summary of the changes based on available data:
Pre-Draft Odds (April 14, 2025): The Dolphins had Super Bowl odds of +4200, implying a 2.3% chance of winning Super Bowl LX.
Post-Draft Odds (April 29, 2025): Their odds lengthened to +8000, implying a 1.2% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Change in Odds:
The odds shifted from +4200 to +8000, a significant lengthening, indicating a decrease in perceived likelihood of winning the Super Bowl.
The implied probability dropped from 2.3% to 1.2%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points.
In terms of betting, a $100 bet at +4200 would have paid $4,200, while at +8000, it would pay $8,000, but the longer odds reflect lower confidence from oddsmakers.
Context and Reasons for the Change:
The Dolphins made notable draft selections, including Michigan defensive tackle Kenneth Grant (No. 13 overall) to bolster their defensive line and offensive lineman Jonah Savaiinaea in a trade-up in the second round to address offensive line needs. They also drafted quarterback Quinn Ewers in the seventh round as a developmental backup.
Despite these additions, some analysts were critical of the Dolphins' draft. For instance, a post on X by @ScottKacsmar listed the Dolphins among teams with drafts he "didn't like," which may reflect sentiment influencing odds.
The Dolphins' 8-9 record in 2024 and missing the playoffs, combined with Tua Tagovailoa’s injury history, likely contributed to skepticism about their immediate competitiveness.
The draft focused heavily on the trenches (three defensive tackles and an offensive lineman), which may not have been seen as addressing immediate offensive firepower or secondary concerns, potentially dampening optimism.
Additional Notes:
Earlier in the offseason (February 10, 2025), the Dolphins had odds of +6500, showing a trend of worsening odds over time, with the post-draft +8000 being the longest reported.
The odds shift aligns with broader market trends, as teams like the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens, who had stronger drafts or recent success, saw shorter odds post-draft.In summary, the Miami Dolphins’ Super Bowl odds worsened from +4200 to +8000 after the 2025 NFL Draft, reflecting a drop in implied probability from 2.3% to 1.2%. This change suggests oddsmakers and analysts were less optimistic about Miami’s prospects, possibly due to a draft perceived as underwhelming and ongoing concerns about team performance and injuries.
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