Since we now have a significant stockpile of draft picks, does it make that much difference if we start winning a few gamws?

[Ray R]

ok so just below middle of the pack. Same thing different year. For once I'd like a chance to draft a QB that can be great instead of drafting one and hoping it'll work out. 4-12 or 8-8 doesn't make me feel good but a chance to have the top pick in EVERY round gives me hope.

Thanks for the response.
I suspected your first post was just a little over the top, or should I say below the water line.

 

[TheWozz]

Will the "if we're not drafting #1 and getting Tua, we might as well not bother with the draft" crowd (yes, that is hyperbole) acknowledge that there may be other franchise QBs in this draft? Before I was exposed to the Doctrine of Only Tua, I've heard that this year is supposed to be an excellent year for QBs. Could Fromm, Love, Herbert, Burrow or someone else be the answer if we don't get Tua for some reason? He could stay in for one more year, or get injured or we win one more than the Skins or Cincy or the Hated Jets.

I'll be rooting for them to win every game like I do every year. My rooting wont make a bit of difference in the outcome, like every year, so don't get mad that I'm jeopardizing our ability to get Tua. It really does not make me an idiot nor do you need to shake your head at me.

 

[Feverdream]

He made his decisions already

I see this.

 

[Feverdream]

The 'Doctrine of only Tua'...

Heh!

 

[Russ57]

You ignored my observation about many of our posters feeling we never draft effectively. If this is the case, what difference does it make where we pick with our #1 draft pick; since getting a successful NFL player in the top of the 1st draft is 50% chance at best, and since we are no good at drafting, this makes our chances of getting a player who will be successful in the NFL even worse.

Okay Ray, I'll admit I didn't read through all the posts as I felt the need to reply. So here I go:)

IMHO a simple look at a draft value chart will allow you to answer your own question. The value between picking first, and say fifth, is another first round pick this year in the top ten. If you feel there is no particular benefit to having the first pick (for whatever reason), then I think you will concede being in a position to trade that 1st overall pick for the 5th and the 10th pick has value and increases the odds of getting at least one starter.

Some positions have much greater hit rates. First round OL is one of them and we certainly need a lot of help there. Lots of great WR's and CB's in this draft too. Having an extra pick early could add one more potentially elite player to the team.

To those who feel we have drafted poorly in the past I'd point out the Grier has added two astute draft evaluaters to the staff.

To those who feel the coaching staff hasn't shown enough, I'll ask what proven OC and/or DC would want a part of this mess? Perhaps after next years draft this team will be seen as a much more favorable destination for proven coordinators.

This team needed to get blown up for anything to change. I'm glad someone finally had the guts to do it.

 

[Rev Kev]

I see this.

Can’t make the facts up - look back to March.

I didn’t say it was fair

 

[Ray R]

Okay Ray, I'll admit I didn't read through all the posts as I felt the need to reply. So here I go:)

IMHO a simple look at a draft value chart will allow you to answer your own question. The value between picking first, and say fifth, is another first round pick this year in the top ten. If you feel there is no particular benefit to having the first pick (for whatever reason), then I think you will concede being in a position to trade that 1st overall pick for the 5th and the 10th pick has value and increases the odds of getting at least one starter.

Some positions have much greater hit rates. First round OL is one of them and we certainly need a lot of help there. Lots of great WR's and CB's in this draft too. Having an extra pick early could add one more potentially elite player to the team.

To those who feel we have drafted poorly in the past I'd point out the Grier has added two astute draft evaluaters to the staff.

To those who feel the coaching staff hasn't shown enough, I'll ask what proven OC and/or DC would want a part of this mess? Perhaps after next years draft this team will be seen as a much more favorable destination for proven coordinators.

This team needed to get blown up for anything to change. I'm glad someone finally had the guts to do it.

I appreciate your response. It is sensible and well thought out.

I realize the draft value chart is commonly used and should be given more consideration then just a generalized opinion. I also know that it is not followed religiously in trades, but may be used as a guideline.

My point is that there is some degree of fluidity to it. I can see it being ineffective when comparing strong drafts with some really good players available up to the middle of the second round of that draft, to weaker drafts with most of the good players gone by the first half of the first round. Clearly, the ratios used in generating the values in that chart would not be used in trades concerning the same pick positions in those two different levels of drafts.

There is so much in-exactness in the information used in trading that any generally accepted guideline is useful, but not binding. All the buyers and sellers really need is a point of agreement. The draft value chart may be a starting point, but in the end, when desperation meets availability; that is what determines the final trade values.

My feelings are this draft may not be as strong as its being presented, although there are several potential good QB's available. I have no idea what the 2021 draft will look like in terms of depth or position strength or the QB class.

As far as my feelings about blowing up a team to make a re-start, I'm opposed to that approach. That doesn't seem too have effected the ownership of the Dolphins so here we are, basically building from scratch. That is where we are so my preference for not doing things this way is now meaningless.

OK. Then let's do our best in performing a mass replacement. One of the problems we are now facing is that we need plenty of 1st team players and even more depth players. So far we have done an amazing job of cleaning house and gathering draft picks. It would be inconsistent to trade up for a QB at this point considering we have three 1st round picks. Lets use one to draft a potential QB with. Lets consider trading down for more draft picks if the result would be say, two good picks for one stronger pick. Feel free to use the draft value chart, since the NFL level play we can get out of a draft pick is an in-exact science and is always somewhat questionable.

 

[Feverdream]

Can’t make the facts up - look back to March.

I didn’t say it was fair

But then again... sensible people change their minds when they receive new data...

And the next 12 weeks qualify as new data.

 

[Birdmond]

The sheer amount of sloppy logic and magical thinking that takes place among the Tua cultists amuses me.

Almost to a cultist, they are seemingly brainwashed into thinking the only answer is their chosen one. No other QB will do... all other QBs are, in reality, Ryan Tannehill.

No... we cant have our current QB surprise us because then we wont be able to draft (gasp...) the chosen one...

(Chuckle)

My god this is a great post. Sums up everything that’s been driving me nuts lately. I owe you beers.

 

[BigNastyFish]

Let's be honest everyone on this forum wants the #1 pick!
I know I do. But there are unforeseen competitive forces
(superior tank drivers?) in the mix -- and they may be
sleazy enough to absolutely throw games by intent
whereas our losing hand is 100% attributable to
radical roaster renovation!

The fact we dumped perennial talent like Thill and
Kiko and traded our Tunsil for an entire new body of
picks (to dramatically expedite our rebuild) seemingly
confused some fans with a conspiracy theory to go
0 and 16 no matter what!

That's NEVER been the case! Point is we're obviously
going to have a very premium pick when the draft comes
around -- and even if it's #3 we are destined to be winners!

That's right -- winners! Not whiners!

 

[Feverdream]

My god this is a great post. Sums up everything that’s been driving me nuts lately. I owe you beers.

I'm a porter or black and tan guy, I'll come thirsty!

 

[Mudd]

My god this is a great post. Sums up everything that’s been driving me nuts lately. I owe you beers.

The sheer amount of sloppy logic and magical thinking that takes place among the Tua cultists amuses me.

Almost to a cultist, they are seemingly brainwashed into thinking the only answer is their chosen one. No other QB will do... all other QBs are, in reality, Ryan Tannehill.

No... we cant have our current QB surprise us because then we wont be able to draft (gasp...) the chosen one...

(Chuckle)

:up:

 

[Russ57]

Ray, all we can do is make guesses but that can be an entertaining way to spend an evening.

I'll say that ever since Ross has owned the team the end results have been pretty much the same. It really hasn't mattered who the coach, GM, or even QB has been. In 2008, when he only owned part of the team, was the only year that was different because Pennington fell into our lap (maybe that should have been a clue about the importance of a QB).

So I'll have to guess that when Flores was interviewed he told Ross that there was no way to get where he wanted with the current players (and their contracts). That has to be a bold move, to tell a business owner that his business can't succeed and must be torn down and remade. But it seems like Ross bought that sales pitch.

So as you say, we don't have a say in the matter and the Dolphins are going to be rebuilt. The question now becomes what blueprint to follow. I favor doing it in this order:

1) Get a franchise QB and a capable backup.
2) Get a quality staring OL with adequate depth to cover injuries.
3) Get a quality starting DL with adequate depth to cover injuries.
4) In the first two years, while that is being accomplished, get your Kicker, punter, FB, blocking TE, kick returner, ST's ace, etc in the latter rounds where such players can be had.
5) In year three you acquire your skill players.

Now of course a lot depends on what happens in the FA market. Also if a "special" talent is there for your draft pick.

Call me old school but I think you have to be able to run the ball and you have to be able to stop the run. IMHO you have to do those things first to "earn" the right to throw the ball and rush the passer.

I'd be very happy if we bought two good proven guards, drafted QB with our 1st, got the best LT prospect with the Steelers pick, the best RT prospect with the Texans pick, and the best remaining OC with one of our second round picks. I could splurge and spend our other second rounder on RB, CB, or WR depending on who was there (I see value at the 33rd pick in all those areas and I think Creed could be there for the Saints pick). Maybe even TE or DE if someone promising is there. Bottom line, I want the QB, a good OL, and a good running attack done next year (and I don't think our RB's or FB is good enough). It shouldn't be hard to accomplish as we have the money and the picks.

That is my unsolicited two cents on the matter.

 

[phinfan40353]

None of the current elite quarterbacks in this league were drafted at #1 or #2. Most weren't even drafted in the top 10.

I think this is only a half statement.

Let's look more at their productivity o ce they DID start.

Did they eclipse the magic 300 yard marker? TD to INT of 2 to 1or better?

What was their productivity trajectory?

Did it consistently rise? Or peaks and valleys?

Why did they go overlooked in the draft? Is there something hidden in the reasons players are overlooked that could be an indicator of success moreso than the current metrics used by FOs?

 

[BigNastyFish]

Meanwhile the Colts and 49ers continue to prove you win
on the LOS and having a "transcendent QB" (whatever the
hell that night be) is secondary to a complete TEAM!

It's like amazing!